@OnChainCollege

Class of 2017 | My analysis is supported by @Binance | Analyst at Bitcoin Live | I help you stay convicted through volatility using data @ OCC Newsletter ↓

 In The Charts
onchaincollege.substack.com/
Joined August 2021
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If you remove #Bitcoin that hasn't moved in 10+ years, the percent of the supply in profit has recently reached all-time lows. 32.73% of the supply is sitting in profit, lower than all prior bear markets. If bottoms occur during max pain, we are certainly there/close to it.
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On-Chain College retweeted
Rafael
@n3ocortexAug 13
Conviction buyers doing what they do best: absorbing $BTC in downturns. Accumulating straight through a -49% drawdown, and now holding ~4M BTC.
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On-Chain College retweeted
Galaxy Research
@glxyresearchAug 1
🚨 A 3rd wave in what we suspect are hacks of Coldcard-generated addresses has been identified in which 207.7294 BTC has been drained. Our estimated observed size of the Coldcard hack is now 1,367.05 BTC (~$88.6m) across 4,585 addresses. More updates in the thread below 👇
Galaxy Research
@glxyresearchAug 1
We identified a 2nd wave of sweeps likely attributed to the same Coldcard hacker as the wave we described in the thread below. We are now tracking 1,158.81 BTC stolen from 2,673 addresses and held unspent across 7 attacker addresses. Updates to our analysis from yesterday 👇
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Encouraging to see Gen Z investing earlier than prior generations. Great chart from @binance
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On-Chain College retweeted
On-Chain College
@OnChainCollegeJul 11
Bitcoin is starting to show some fight but it’s not a real momentum shift until price can hold above $68.8K
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Bitcoin is starting to show some fight but it’s not a real momentum shift until price can hold above $68.8K
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Patience is the play
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$5.7B in SpaceX Pre-IPO Perps on Binance on IPO Day. Eventually, Bitcoin becomes boring and forgotten and money shifts elsewhere. And that’s exactly when it’s time to pay attention to Bitcoin. Everything is cyclical.
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Funding on @binance flipped negative at the bottom. First time in 3 weeks funding has turned negative. Expect a continued uptrend should funding stay on that side of the coin.
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Normal, cyclical behavior for Bitcoin. No, it’s not dead. Yes, there will be brighter days. Best advice I give to anyone going through their first market like this is to touch grass. I certainly have been. More thoughts in a write up later this week.
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Bulls flinched. Now we wait to see where this finds support.
On-Chain College
@OnChainCollegeMay 19
Bitcoin is compressing around multiple key on-chain levels. Bulls want to see $75K hold. Bears want to see price under $81K. A market in equilibrium. Who will flinch first?
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No more pennies and now a $250 bill #inflation
Kalshi
@KalshiMay 28
JUST IN: US reportedly designing $250 bill with Trump on it
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Bitcoin is compressing around multiple key on-chain levels. Bulls want to see $75K hold. Bears want to see price under $81K. A market in equilibrium. Who will flinch first?
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Bitcoin is now BELOW the STHCB, which sits at $78.3K. Weakness here shows a lack of follow through from the bulls. The 128DMA at $75.2K is the next point of interest.
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Bitcoin's price has dropped below the Long-Term Holder Cost Basis during all prior bear markets. Currently, that level is at $48.6K and has not been reached yet. Do you think BTC hits this level before reaching $100K+ again?
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This tight Bitcoin range keeps tightening. We will have an answer soon. $75K - $82K is mostly noise. Movement outside of this range is when the signal comes.
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Bitcoin bulls will want price to stay above $78.5K (the STHCB)
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Bitcoin's Funding Rates hit positive for a 3rd day in a row on Binance for the first time in over a month. The move out of the $60Ks and into the low $80Ks was during an environment of mostly negative funding.
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The longer Bitcoin stays above $78K, the more likely 6 digit BTC becomes... Strong confluence around $78K with the True Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sitting at that level.
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Bitcoin was rejected at the ETF Cost Basis, currently sitting at $82.1K, after being below it since January ‘26.
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This rally above the short-term holder cost basis has been impressive and legitimate in my eyes due to funding being negative 🔴on Binance the entire time. Funding has shifted positive 🟢over the last two days. Possible weakness ahead for BTC if funding keeps leaning positive.
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