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Chip stocks rose 1.6% and ended an eight-day losing run
We worked through 24 hours of trader talk on X and picked what moved markets.
Tech bounces back
The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.11% to about 26,431. The rise followed tech's worst week in months. The 10-year Treasury yield (1/2)
(2/2) was around 5.13–5.15%. Questions about how AI spending is funded are still open.
Also in focus
• OpenAI seeks $30 billion, according to Reuters. The new money would value the company at more than $1.4 trillion.
• Brent near a five-month high. It briefly turned lower during the day. WTI kept rising and is in the low $100s. Reports said the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi sites.
Tech won back some ground in one session. The next test is earnings from big tech and AI companies, which come soon.
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Insuring Oracle's debt now costs 3% a year
We studied 24 hours of trader talk on X and picked what moved markets.
Funding gets harder
According to reports, Goldman Sachs sees the first cracks in AI-related debt. Higher Treasury yields make borrowing more expensive for AI companies. Much of their new spending (1/2)
(2/2) is paid for with debt. The Financial Times reported growing problems in the $10 trillion AI infrastructure boom. Companies with less cash feel it first.
Also in focus
• China's economy grows 4.5%. That is slightly above the 4.4% expected. Retail sales rose 1.1%. Crude imports fell 21.5% from a year earlier, although refinery throughput increased from August.
• Oil holds near $108. Ukraine hit a Russian oil terminal with a large drone attack. Iran also said two tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Is the pressure on AI debt a short break for tech, or the start of tighter funding?
Producer prices rose 6.3% in a year, yet Treasury yields fell
We went over 24 hours of trader talk on X and chose what moved the markets.
Inflation meets AI debt
Producer prices rose 1.3% in September alone, mostly because of energy. Core prices, without food and energy, rose 0.7%. The 10-year yield (1/2)
(2/2) is now near 5.10%. Money moved into government bonds because of worries about debt at AI companies.
Also in focus
• CoreWeave yields pass 16%. That is the yield on its 2031 bonds. Lenders now ask for a very high return from the AI cloud company. Chip stocks also fell.
• Dow leads, Nasdaq lags. The Dow rose 1.08% to 52,177, and the S&P 500 gained 0.33%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.08% after early losses. Healthcare and other steadier sectors did better than tech.
U.S. inflation came in above expectations. The Nasdaq 100 fell about 2%
We read through 24 hours of trader talk on X for what moved markets.
Not just energy
U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, as expected. Annual inflation reached 3.7%, above the 3.6% expected. Core inflation, without food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month, above (1/2)
(2/2) the 0.2% expected. This suggests price pressure is not only about fuel.
At first, the chance of an October Fed rate increase rose from about 20% to 45–50%. Later in the day, it fell to about 34%. The S&P 500 fell 1.11%.
Also in focus
• Yields reverse. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.33% after the data. Then it fell to about 5.19%, as money moved from tech shares into government bonds.
• AI financing concerns. The yield on CoreWeave’s 2032 bond rose to about 15%. The AI cloud company already has a lot of debt, so new borrowing costs more. Its shares fell more than 15%, and other AI stocks fell too.
Stocks fell on higher core inflation and new worries about AI borrowing. Today brings three more U.S. reports: producer prices, retail sales, and new jobless claims.
U.S. inflation is expected to rise to 3.6% today, from 3.4%
We followed 24 hours of trader talk on X and picked out what moved markets.
One report, two parts
The September price report (CPI) comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Higher energy costs explain most of the rise. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, is expected (1/2)
(2/2) at about 0.2% for the month. It is the last big inflation report before the late-October Fed meeting. Markets expect no rate change at that meeting.
Also in focus
• Chips slide further. Chinese competition and doubts about AI demand pushed chip stocks lower again. ASML still reported a higher profit than expected.
• Narrow gains. Ten stocks, led by Nvidia, drove 70% of the S&P 500's gain since late March, according to one market account.
Energy sets the overall number. Core shows the rest. The Fed's Beige Book report later today adds one more view.
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South Korean stocks are down more than 15% in five days
We reviewed 24 hours of trader talk on X and kept what moved the markets.
Tech pressure from Asia
The figure comes from a widely followed market account on X. Tech shares led the fall as foreign investors pulled money out. Chinese competition (1/2)
(2/2) in memory chips added to the pressure. Nasdaq 100 futures also fell overnight. It is not yet clear whether the drop stays in Korea or spreads further.
Also in focus
• Inflation data next. The U.S. consumer price report (CPI) is due on Wednesday. Oil is still expensive, so inflation pressure has not gone away.
• Bank results begin. Six major U.S. banks report third-quarter results this week, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
Oil spiked above $105 on attacks, then fell back on a diesel deal
We went through 24 hours of trader talk on X and picked what moved the markets.
Two oil stories at once
Over the weekend, Houthi forces hit Saudi targets, and Iran said it struck tankers near Hormuz. Brent jumped above $105. Then Trump announced (1/2)
(2/2) an energy ceasefire for Russia and Ukraine and a Russian diesel export deal. Zelenskyy said it was news to him. Traders read the extra diesel as relief, and Brent slipped to $103.
Also in focus
• Index up, stocks down. The S&P 500 is 0.2% from its recent high, but 84% of its companies are at least 10% below their own highs. Bank results start Tuesday.
• China keeps adding gold. Its central bank added 23 tonnes in September, the 23rd month in a row. Gold is near $4,190.
Oil moved both ways on words, not on real supply. Which matters more now: the next headline or Wednesday's CPI?