I spoke with Ben Inker from $80b asset manager GMO on @opmpod about their Q3 letter and call that equity supply would pop the AI bubble. Watch the full interview: Youtube bit.ly/4imAcwh Apple bit.ly/4hPDFn7 Spotify bit.ly/4i0nRfT

The bull market has not hit its blow off top phase says Charles Lemonides. We discussed why he's still bullish and his favorite longs and shorts. Watch the full @opmpod episode on: YouTube: bit.ly/4jRSAOS Apple: bit.ly/4yf72nC Spotify: bit.ly/4zuZwWQ

1/ Private credit fund redemptions continue to exceed limits and @jameselbaor say their AUM boom is over. He breaks down the public market implications and opportunities and why he sees a wave of M&A ahead for the BDC sector. Listen to this episode of @opmpod on: Apple bit.ly/4hvCIyS Spotify bit.ly/4hBmtR0 Youtube bit.ly/4hNPSbD 00:00 Intro 01:42 Private Credit Redemptions Continue 07:03 IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A 15:28 AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers 16:51 Sponsor Message Plutus 18:17 Private Credit vs Private Equity 24:25 Systemic Risk and Wrappers 29:15 Public vs Private BDC Gap 34:46 Why Interval Funds List 39:44 Alt Managers Valuation Reset 43:33 Permanent Capital Explained 50:17 Hedge Funds vs Private Equity 54:41 Pershing Square Liquidity 01:04:17 Conclusion

1/ Is the Fed hiking into a supply shock a policy mistake setting up for a 2022 style bear market? I discussed with @ericwallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group on this episode of @opmpod. YouTube: bit.ly/4h9khRB Apple: bit.ly/3TR32eV Spotify:bit.ly/3VLKAot 00:00 Intro 00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer 02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields 05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate 07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks 08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility 11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom 14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes 17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break 18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending 20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag 23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup 25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis? 26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention 31:20 Korea Silicon Boom 35:43 Europe Under Pressure 39:25 Middle East Outlook 43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices 48:34 China Oil Strategy 52:10 Big Calls Wrap

1/ I spoke with @AurelionRsch about their strongest conviction commodity views and how they build an equity portfolio around them on @opmpod. They've had a great year in their model portfolio up ~35% YTD (See stats and chart below) Bullish on gold, copper, & uranium Bearish on oil & fertilizer 00:00 Intro 02:16 Why Gold Could Hit 5K 05:45 Geopolitics Over Rates 09:24 Portfolio Positioning 12:28 Managing Miner Cycles 16:26 Plutus 18:26 Bearish Oil & Fertilizer 20:28 Oil Thesis & China Inventories 33:23 Royalties as Exposure 36:07 Valuing Royalty Companies 42:48 Why Uranium Now 46:10 Uranium Contracts & Supply 51:10 Energy Security and Nuclear Buildout 54:31 Copper Bull Case in AI Era 01:00:05 Picking Copper Stocks 01:06:43 Five Commodities Recap YouTube: bit.ly/4hA8vjg Apple: bit.ly/4jeBZ7u Spotify: bit.ly/4xEgbWK

OUT NOW - Freddy Brick from @muddywatersre on their move into metals and mining. Listen to the episode and subscribe to @opmpod Apple: bit.ly/4cLDzdg Spotify: bit.ly/46iIL4L YouTube: bit.ly/4iZVd0y 00:00 Intro 01:28 Approach to Portfolio Construction 07:56 Fraud Report Origin 09:35 Block Models Explained 15:27 Why Juniors Are Distressed 21:19 Finding Mispriced Projects 25:12 Venture Like Investing 28:25 Promoters and Capital Raising 33:43 Sentiment and Cycles 38:28 M&A Wave Ahead 43:27 Trading Vol and Hedging 46:57 Long Activism Approach 50:23 Scaling the Strategy 55:10 When Alpha Shows Up

Software has outperformed by ~35% in Q3. Will the tech sector rotation continue? That's what I discussed with @jeffkeller1 on my latest episode of @opmpod. Jeff's tech focused fund Capelight Partners has navigated the ups, downs, and rotations in tech very well since inception in 2021. Highly recommend giving him a follow. 00:00 Intro 01:13 Tech Sector Divergence 05:23 Cyber Infra Valuation Risks 08:09 Why Themes Beat Stock Picking 12:01 Valuation and Forecast Limits 17:35 Retail Crowding Warning 20:15 2021Parallels 23:33 Rising Rates and Funding the AI Buildout 27:28 Mag Seven Return Profile Shift 29:43 CapEx is Existential 35:17 Meta Breakdown 39:38 Investor Positioning Themes 41:34 Long Biased Long Short 43:55 What Would Break AI? 46:26 AI Echo Chamber Risk 49:06 Factor Awareness Extremes 51:55 Deleveraging July Playbook 56:58 Year End Watchlist 58:58 Anthropic IPO and SpaceX Effect 01:01:06 Conclusion

Why does @WarrenPies think the market is underpricing macro risk? One reason is September FOMC pricing which he says has swung too far towards dovishness compared to Fed messaging and recent data. Check out the full @opmpod to hear why he recently downgraded stocks from overweight to neutral benchmark weights for @3F_Research clients: YouTube: bit.ly/4hSUX39 Apple: bit.ly/45Im1uC Spotify: bit.ly/4gsKngO

Macro risk is taking over and it's time to reduce equity risk... @WarrenPies argues on @opmpod that the time to be overweight stocks was before strong earnings, not after, especially with looming macro risk from the Fed, cracks in the AI thesis, and poor seasonality. 00:00 Intro 01:21 Why Macro Takes Over 03:19 Earnings Season Structure 05:43 Upcoming Macro Catalysts 08:24 Fed Hike Odds Mispriced 10:37 Political Pressure on Fed 15:29 Sponsor Break HFGM 17:45 Coin Flip Meeting Dynamics 19:42 Rates Curve and Term Premium 24:54 How to Position in September 26:53 Tech Breadth and AI Cracks 30:17 Lab ARR Reality Check 34:40 Tech Leadership Needed 38:17 Data Center ROI Debate 40:36 Election and Policy Risk 43:44 AI Issuance Scapegoats 47:35 Energy as Diversifier 51:48 Anthropic IPO Impact 55:01 Software Versus Semis 58:28 Pair Trades and Correlations 01:01:19 Fade Macro Risk Playbook 01:02:55 Conclusion Check out the full interview YouTube: bit.ly/4hSUX39 Apple: bit.ly/45Im1uC Spotify: bit.ly/4gsKngO

Check out the latest ep of @opmpod with the great @HighyieldHarry. We covered a lot of ground from how private equity's and private credit's well documented issues are affecting careers and comp to how a boom in M&A and IPOs might make 2026 "The Year of the Banker" We also discussed all the great data Harry is collecting @Buyside_Hub. 00:00 Intro 00:45 Year of the Banker 03:38 Private Credit Redemptions 07:04 Retail Flows and Gating 10:18 Comp Trends and Hiring 13:17 Career Pyramid Reality 15:13 AI Reshapes Analyst Work 17:16 Big Firms vs Small Shops 20:27 Operators and Real Economy 23:56 Agents and Human Edge 26:39 Who Gets Displaced? 31:46 Rates and Longer Holds 37:42 Software Credit Time Bomb 41:16 Choosing Your Career Track 47:22 Top Jobs and Trading 51:56 Closing Takeaways 54:03 Banking Cycles and Layoffs 57:03 Conclusion

OUT NOW - @LukeGromen on @opmpod arguing that YCC is more likely than Kevin Warsh shrinking the balance sheet. Watch or listen wherever you get your podcasts: Apple: bit.ly/4bMFL3w Spotify: bit.ly/4fXT4Ay YouTube: bit.ly/4yJ2Cab

1/ OUT NOW - @rampagingruss on why he believes that treasuries are far more speculative than AI stocks. He argues on @OPMpod: >Populism politics mean spending won't be reined in >Housing affordability has reached unsustainable levels but prices can't fall in nominal terms >Sees ~7% wage growth and inflation making housing more affordable in real terms >Inflationary mindset has already set in and loan/credit growth is here >Yields will need to rise to ~10% to slow loan growth. >3% real yields are needed to lock in deposits 00:00 Intro 01:38 Why Treasuries Look Risky 04:33 Foreign Reserves Shift from Gold to Bonds 08:59 Politics Turns Inflationary 14:12 Japan Leads 16:09 Wage Inflation Drives Yields 20:37 Sponsor Break SOYB 21:58 High Real Rates New Normal 26:14 Trading Long View vs Noise 29:09 Housing Tug of War 34:02 Politics Converge Anyway 36:03 Chips Are New Oil 38:38 Is AI a Bubble? 44:12 AI and Wage Politics 50:37 Strategic AI Spending 54:17 Leverage Unwind Risks 59:29 Private Credit Red Flags 01:04:13 Wrap Up and Links Podcast links below👇

OUT NOW - @moritzheiden and @moritzseibert on @opmpod talking trend following and their particular high-octane approach @TakaheCapital. 2026 has been a good year for trend followers with lots of single markets, large and small (precious metals, equities, cocoa, petroleum products), undergoing strong trends at some point during the year. We discussed why they've built a system that trades ~100 individual markets to find a diversity of large and small trends but also leans into the winners and the inevitable volatility that comes with letting them get large in the portfolio. 00:00 Intro 01:14 Do You Need Big Trends 03:21 Smooth vs Choppy Trends 05:00 Oil Curve Positioning 07:43 Model Design Not Discretion 09:24 Why Trend Funds Differ 16:02 Classic Trend Playbooks 19:04 Sizing Beats Entry 25:01 Perpetual Futures Reality 32:41 High Octane Philosophy 35:22 Letting Winners Get Huge 39:04 Why Trends End Late 41:55 Price Only vs Fundamentals 46:28 What’s Trending Now 49:57 Spreads Underperforming 52:37 When Signals Die 57:49 Simple Robust Parameters 01:00:59 Design Without Optimization 01:05:43 Diversification and Investors 01:09:32 Uniqueness and Market Mix 01:14:21 Who Buys High Vol 01:15:54 Conclusion Check out the full interview and subscribe to @OPMpod on your favorite podcast platform👇

OUT NOW - Breaking Down the Multi-Manager Playbook: How This $19B CIO Thinks About Alpha New episode of @opmpod with Sean McGould CIO and CEO of the huge multi-strategy hedge fund manager The Lighthouse Group. 00:00 Japan Market Shift 01:29 Lighthouse Group 04:53 Why Hedge in Bull Runs? 10:43 Equity Issuance Signals 13:33 Capex Versus Meme Raises 16:27 AI Inside Lighthouse 18:20 Specialists vs. Generalists 19:42 AI Fuels Asia Outperformance 21:18 Japan Reforms and Nikkei 24:43 Korea Value Up Program 27:44 Fixing Incentive Imbalances 32:34 Sector Pair Trades Explained 33:56 Factor Neutrality Pitfalls 34:44 AI and Narrative Factors 41:54 Why Liquidity Means Capacity 44:34 Hidden Alpha in Regulation 50:30 Hedging Regulatory Unknowns 53:50 Peak Pod Shop Debate 57:40 Diversification and Market Liquidity Links👇

OUT NOW - "Mr. IPO", professor Jay Ritter, Director of the IPO Initiative at UF's Warrington College of Business for @opmpod to discuss: -How 2026 IPOs will stack up historically -Underperformance of IPOs vs the market -Large IPOs vs small IPOs -Large IPOs with high P/S -Why history says humanity wins and investors lose -The staggering inflows to private markets -Retail involvement in private markets Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:58 Meet Mr IPO 01:40 2026 is Unprecedented 02:52 Do IPOs Signal Tops 04:27 How IPO Pricing Works 05:57 SpaceX Valuation Risks 09:26 TAM Hype and Cursor 13:27 2026 Versus Past Waves 16:17 Must Own AI Exposure 19:46 Regulation and Unintended Effects 27:29 Geopolitics and Dual Use 29:10 Will IPO Volume Boom? 32:40 VC/PE = No Free Lunch 35:36 Retail Access Fee Stacking 39:14 Volatility Washing and Perps 49:09 Sentiment and Final Takeaways

The US is having an industrial renaissance, driven by manufacturing, electrification, & AI. I spoke with @ChrisSemenuk PM of $RSHO & $VOLT (both outperforming) about the trend on @opmpod. YT: bit.ly/4gw1Ruj Apple: bit.ly/4fRIhII Spot: bit.ly/4oXxEXv

"I think the semiconductor cycle will roll over towards the end of the year or early next year, but I think we have the euphoric part of ahead of us before we get to that part." - @AndreasSteno Do you feel the euphoria? Full episode of @opmpod: YouTube: bit.ly/3PO7f11 Apple: bit.ly/4dDwta4 Spotify: bit.ly/4fESacA

AI driven unemployment is a bigger risk to real estate investors than higher interest rates. That's what Tom Shapiro, Founder & CIO of GTIS Partners, argues in his @opmpod interview. Despite rising risks, there is still plenty of opportunity and AI is actually driving some of it. We discussed: Why San Francisco is a BUY: While everyone ran away, GTIS has been scooping up apartment buildings in SF. Tom reveals how the AI boom is creating massive demand. The Sun Belt Danger Zone: Think Austin and Nashville are still unstoppable? Tom explains why these "hot" markets are currently decimated by oversupply, with developers forced to offer up months of free rent. The Silent Boom in Industrial: GTIS is also betting big on logistics warehouses. Discover why they have eight to ten active development projects to capitalize on the reshoring trend in America. Vai Brazil: Tom and GTIS have been big investors in Brazilian office and hotels for decades and they are continuing to see growth in LATAM. Watch the full interview on YouTube: youtu.be/ZjqIFbPl2rw