Lightbridge trades at roughly $5 a share, an approximately $190m market cap, below the $237.5m of cash and Treasuries it reported at the end of June. The market is effectively assigning a negative enterprise value to its reactor fuel technology. ASP Isotopes and UEC show similar gaps elsewhere in the nuclear fuel cycle. A good thesis and a profitable share price aren't always on speaking terms. Capital at risk. #uranium

For 18 months I've said this market is about chips and energy. Nvidia alone is worth more than eight of the world's largest energy companies combined. 90% of the attention has gone to the chips. Follow for more of this, if you want my newsletter and portfolio, link in bio. #ai

Russia launches 600 a night, America builds only a few hundred of its best interceptors a year. $4 million to shoot down a $35,000 drone. Anduril's Steelfin bets on good enough and cheap, made in bulk, not the best missile money can build. Industrial capacity wins wars. #anduril

One interest rate cannot sensibly govern two entirely different economies. One is AI: chips, power, engineers, seemingly limitless capital. The other is Main Street, squeezed by food, fuel, housing and credit. Central banks look too hawkish to me. Eventually the rules bend to this K-shaped divide, even if nobody yet knows quite how. #interestrates

Comfort democracy: we demand security, benefits, subsidies, lower taxes and better services, paid for by someone richer who hasn't left yet. Over 1.3 trillion a year in spending and housing, energy and infrastructure still don't work. A failing state forgets what the money was for. Follow for more of this, if you want my newsletter and portfolio, link in bio. #kemibadenoch

Korea's September exports rose 83.5% year on year to a record $120.9 billion. Semiconductor exports were up 263%, and early October data say it's still accelerating. The KOSPI hasn't moved. To Nutstuff, it increasingly looks too low relative to the physical evidence coming through Korea's ports. Follow for more of this, if you want my newsletter and portfolio, link in bio. #korea

Red Bull, OnlyFans and Richard Mille, not Amazon, not Google, not Nvidia. The three businesses I'd have started, and the one idea behind all of them: own the bridge, not the traffic. Follow for more of this, if you want my newsletter and portfolio, link in bio. #redbull #onlyfans #richardmille #investing

A standard Falcon 9 launch now costs less than shipping a VLCC from the US Gulf to the Far East. $74m against around $80m, per Gibson Shipbrokers. Same route tankers have always run. The freight market moved the price, not the rocket. That's the tanker market right now. #tankers

Micron trades at 7x earnings. The real multiple might be 27x. $54.2bn revenue, +379% year-on-year, a $61.5bn Q1 guide against the Street's $57bn, 87% gross margins, roughly $100bn of contracted obligations. At roughly $153 of annualised EPS, that's cheap. But if that's peak earnings and the next trough is $40, you're paying 27x, not 7x. GPUs can think. Micron and SK Hynix let them remember. Follow for more! #semiconductors

Remarkably little is actually working in uranium right now. Excite Energy is one of the few names that is, actually drilling, not just presenting. Added months ago, up 249% since. Follow for more of this, if you want my newsletter and portfolio, link in bio. #uranium

An old tanker is earning money right now. A brand new one isn't. Older tankers are worth more than new vessels because they can earn today, while low Rhine water levels are pushing barge costs sharply higher. Reality leaks physically before it leaks financially. #tankers

Nike just did it and then they undid it. A stock isn't cheap because it used to cost three times more. #nike

On Tuesday the White House published its accord on super intelligence, signed by the President and the heads of Google, Anthropic, Meta, OpenAI, xAI and Nvidia. Under Trump's signature it reads "President of the Unites States". #ai #superintelligence #whitehouse

Still bullish Britain though: cheap energy, the North Sea, and capital that can't be taxed the way it used to. Is the UK more of a sinking ship than the one I'm on right now? If you could see the ship, the answer's yes. Link in bio for more. #ukeconomy

An AI agent has none of these weaknesses. Banks get rich off inconvenience: idle cash, bad FX spreads, insurance nobody checks. Permit it, and at 3am it can move idle cash from 0.1% to 4%, refinance a liability, then do it again tomorrow. Short friction, long speed. Newsletter has more, link in bio. #ai

Eli Lilly alone is worth about a trillion dollars, more than the whole psychedelic sector. GLP does not stand for gummies, licorice and pizza. 90% of finance is still chasing AI. I think biology is the exponential trade nobody's pricing. Follow for more of this, if you want my newsletter and portfolio, link in bio. #glp1

I've added SpaceX to the portfolio on that curve, not the June IPO price of $135 and roughly $1.77trn. NASA just expanded its crew contract with them to $5.92bn. Cost per kilogram to orbit: around $18,000 historically, roughly $2,700 with Falcon, perhaps $200 if Starship's reusability holds. It's not a bet on rockets. It's a bet that orbit becomes an economic geography. #spacex

Same movie, different cast. Semiconductors since ChatGPT against internet stocks since Netscape: the resemblance is uncanny. The difference is the earnings. Back then a figment of the imagination, today very real and booming, at a forward P/E of around 20x. The risk is not the earnings. It is the firehose of capital raises. #semiconductors

Machine intelligence compounds at multiples. Parliament, the courts and the grid all improve by a few percent a year. The breaking happens in that gap. I keep energy, tankers and defence as insurance against my own exponential exposure, leverage kept sensible. The future may be arriving faster than humanity can process it. #ai

That gap is the trade. Machine intelligence compounds several times a year. The grid, the courts and our own heads manage a percent or two in a good one. Bitcoin's broken 84,000. Follow for more of this, link in bio. #bitcoin