@NotionalGrid

Modeller at Cornwall Insight, all views are my own and do not reflect the position of my employer or the BSC panel.

 Norwich
Joined July 2011
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Energy Geek? Gamer? Ever wished these passions intersected? Check out the video demo below of my latest hobby project - a management simulator for operating a power network, PM me if your interested in getting a copy of the demo for play-testing! youtube.com/watch?v=UPM98Qyg…
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Independent Investigation into NESO concludes there is no evidence of inappropriate influence over operational decisions and no evidence that control room records were altered neso.energy/news/independent…
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I didnt think ENCC would be thrilled about the interconnector limits...
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And the control room is now even more risk averse
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Another electricity margin notice for this evening, covering a long period 15.00 to 23.00
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minimum margin at 17.30 3.8GW, LoLP of 0.000037, so things look OK but the control room needs some extra comfort
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NESO issued a Electricity Margin Notice last night for 16.00 to 19.00 today, the wind forecast is due to trough at 16.00-17.00 tonight. Day-ahead prices cleared at £280/MWh, enough to get the OCGTs interested. bmrs.elexon.co.uk/events
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The de-rated margin looks healthy at 6GW, so no capacity market warnings. The notice suggests control room is concerned about sufficient margins to manage unexpected changes in demand/generation, with 1900MW behind constraints and a shortfall of 1400MW, against their requirements
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NESO has now cancelled the EMN
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Update: the margin notice has been reduced to 104MW of system margin shortfall
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Weird news for the day, the NESO control centre has issued a margin notification for the evening, I dont recall a June EMN before(!)
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Basically looks like its not windy enough, also Heysham is out on a planned outage and a couple of gas stations have been issuing REMIT notices for today
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Update to the cap and floor legal challenge, Zenobe's application has been dismissed, the Tribunal found that the scheme does not constitute a subsidy decision (and also that it does not have authority to review the scheme). catribunal.org.uk/sites/cat/…
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Good to know that DESNZ don't know how NIV chasing works
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You can't prohibit something you can't do, if I have a BMU with a +ve FPN Flag I can't NIV chase anyway.
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This is NESO conflating trading with NIV chasing, which is two different things. If I signal a physical position (i.e. FPN of 100) and spill (i.e.ECVN of 0) then I get paid the imbalance price, but I still have told NESO an accurate FPN, so no re-dispatch needed.
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Centrica completes acquisition of Severn Power 850MW CCGT from Calon Energy centrica.com/media-centre/ne…

Centrica completes acquisition of 850MW Severn power station

Centrica completes acquisition of 850MW Severn power station

centrica.com
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£370mn for 850MW is about £435/kW, which you could buy a new recip gas engine or most of a new OCGT for.
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If we assume it has 10 years left (built in 2010) of CM payments left I think it would need £60/kW each year at an 85% de-rating factor to make back that £370mn. Which seems like a reasonably achievable outcome, with other revenues paying for Gas and Network charges. a
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I know this is fruitless but I think we are agreeing here, Renewables are growing but they aren't going to displace gas entirely from the system by 2030, and my point is that breaking the link between gas and power prices is therefore difficult.
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Also, where is the breaking of the link between gas and power? By the government own ambition gas will still be running in 50% of hours (generous reading 30% of the time?)
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