The 'coincidence' continues.

S&P 500 Seasonal Update - Continues to Track Historical Pattern (reminder: YTD correlation is 94% bit.ly/3w5KDe0).

Google Trends for "Tapering" return to all-time highs.

Seems about right.

Speaking of Credit Market Dislocations, the China Junk Bond Market (which has been a leading tell) is Retesting Record Levels. More Contagion Coming?

FANG+ Forward EPS Relative to the S&P 500 are stagnate/rolling over to the extent it's difficult to see them reasserting leadership, which is problematic for the market overall going into Q1 2022.

In the sh!tshow that was the action in global interest rates last week, Australia Two Year takes the cake with the highest upward move in at least 20 years

And FANG+ Earnings Surprise is hammered to a new low.

Why would margin debt and home prices have a 96% correlation? Because they're both risk-on responses to Fed Policy (courtesy @hedgopia).

FANG+ Multiple compression vs declining EPS Surprises.

An S&P 500 Real Earnings Yield of -1.91% remains a very significant problem.

Gold could get very interesting above $170 basis GLD.

US Treasuries nearing worst annual return in at least 50 years.

Most sensitive areas of Risk-On/Risk-Off (last updated: bit.ly/3Gho4ba) broke to new highs Oct 13th and haven't looked back (tho clearly overbought).

Amen! Its a structural "assets for trinkets" trade with very negative long-term implications.

S&P 500 Index is close to its seasonal pattern. (FWIW, one of the most reliable seasonal setups over the 35 years I've been trading is a correction into October, followed by an October low, followed by a rally into the first week of January).

Margin Debt Growth Rate Falls Below 50%...

All the world is correlated in our Risk-On/Risk-Off environment.

In an environment where EPS misses are getting hammered, it's worth noting that Earnings Surprises for FANG+ are approaching all-time lows.

Multi-year highs in U.S. Inflation Breakevens today.