Global risk-based. Just here for the charts.
Joined October 2019
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Jon Fosse is gonna with the nobel prize today*. 18-1 (+1800) on Bovada betting odds. Seems like a decent way to try to make 18x today. (* Legally* I'm guessing, not advice,)
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
A true conundrum: Countries across the world have thrown billions at child incentives and they mostly don't work
and yet when people effectively have limitless funds (top 1%) they choose a hyper traditional family arrangement of stay at home mom + 3 kids
graphics credit @CoFoundersNik @mtkonczal
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
beautiful explanation. this is 100% happening. xitter.cf/sotak/status/211179423…
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
BREAKING: The number of restaurants in New York dropped ~2,000 YoY in Q1 2026, posting its largest YoY decline in at least 36 years.
This surpasses even the worst contraction recorded in any quarter during the 2020 pandemic.
The number of eating and drinking places in New York State has now declined YoY for 4 consecutive quarters, its longest streak since 2021.
This comes as restaurants are facing surging operating expenses, including insurance premiums, wages, interest rates, utilities, and health coverage, with overall costs rising faster than national averages.
Last year, employee health insurance costs jumped +12.9% for New York-area service firms, business insurance rose +7.0%, while utility costs surged +8.5%, according to the Manhattan Chamber of Commerce.
Skyrocketing costs are crushing New York restaurants.
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
The HY market is telling you $CRWV is bankrupt and is only a matter of time it becomes official and is either bailed out by its biggest sponsor $NVDA or files for Chapter 11
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
Consumer spending at gas stations is up +24% y/y, contributing nearly the entire rise in consumption.
Excluding gas stations, US retail spending is growing at its slowest pace two years.
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
Energy Ministry: Romanian Army is ready for any scenario that could threaten the Neptun Deep gas project
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
20% of Families have fallen behind on loan payments, the highest level since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis 🚨🚨
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
Washington prints money and ships handouts in the name of helping the little guy. Here is the scoreboard.
The wealth gap between the top 10% and the bottom 20% just hit a record, 50 times, per the Fed's own survey.
Print trillions and the trillions flow to whoever owns the assets. The top 10% own the assets. Every stimulus sold as help for the people becomes a bull market for the people who were already rich.
The money printer is doing exactly what it was built to do.
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
France is projected to have about 605k births in 2026.
Outside the world wars, you have to go back at least to the 1600s (!) to find France bearing fewer children.
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
Commercial real estate is cracking. The share of securitized CRE mortgages in special servicing, the step right before default, just passed 11%, the highest since 2013, and office loans are the core of it.
Fed cuts will not fix this. These mortgages track the 10-year, and the long end stays high on deficits. Regional banks hold most of this debt, so that is where the next crack shows up.
$KRE
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
Every day that Germany stays in the Euro, it writes a blank cheque to the high-debt South. The high-debt South - no surprise - cashes that cheque with great enthusiasm. Germany's political center is too "posh" to acknowledge this. But the AfD isn't...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
Contagion risk is rising in the European bond market:
European government bonds are showing early signs of contagion, with France’s selloff spreading to Italy, Belgium, and Greece and producing some of their largest spread moves in years.
France remains at the center of the stress, as excessive borrowing, large budget deficits, political opposition to economic reforms, and rising debt servicing costs weigh on its bond market.
On Monday, the French-German 10-year yield spread widened another 10 basis points to +150 basis points, while longer-dated French and Italian bonds continued to underperform German debt.
Germany has remained a relative safe haven, with investors rotating into German bonds as the selloff spreads.
The key concern is that higher interest rates increase debt servicing costs, putting additional pressure on heavily indebted countries and causing bond market stress to spread across Europe.
The ECB is already facing pressure to respond, with traders reducing expectations for future rate hikes and policymakers potentially considering a pause in quantitative tightening if contagion intensifies.
Europe is once again facing the risk of bond market contagion.
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
The stock market's fear gauge is asleep. The bond market's is screaming.
The VIX closed Friday at 15.31, near the lows of the year. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.28%, up 114 basis points in 9 months and the biggest quarterly jump this century.
When these two disagree this badly, the bond market has been right first.
interesting
Bratislava is testing whether its suburbs already extend into another country.
A new bus now runs:
Bratislava 🇸🇰
↓
Berg 🇦🇹
↓
Kittsee 🇦🇹
↓
Edelstal 🇦🇹
↓
Prellenkirchen 🇦🇹
For three months, the entire route is free.
The goal is simple: measure how many people already live, work, study and spend their free time across the border.
The border says Austria.
The commuting pattern may say Bratislava.
Minumbra Risk Management retweeted
A simple basis between two CDS (both on France) should scare you more than the simple OAT/Bund above 150bp (above the 2017 peak and almost at 2011).
2003 standard was the old one, that was changed in 2014 with a new one.
2014 covers: rescturing and redenomination risk
