Our obsession with depth and detail brings greater understanding and better performance
Cape Town, South Africa
Joined December 2012
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Everyone's asking whether they've missed the AI trade. Wrong question. The better one: what's already priced in? When a handful of stocks drive most of the market's gains, owning the index quietly turns into a concentrated bet. Worth knowing what you actually own!
The AI trade has made a lot of money. It's also made the S&P 500 more concentrated than it's ever been. Semiconductors are now 20% of the index, up from 5% five years ago and just 2% a decade ago. Valuations are above average, margins are at a peak, and earnings expectations are priced for perfection. History says that combination doesn't last forever. What happens when the market starts asking about monetisation instead of just funding the next AI bet?
We break this down properly, along with the rest of Q2's narrow, momentum driven market, in our Q2 market review, at this link:- lnkd.in/dvbtpY6m
This is no time to blink! An interesting presentation by Northstar’s CEO/CIO Adrian Clayton
youtu.be/bJnRZukaAQ8?is=6Fvn… via @YouTube
Fixed income markets shifted fast in Q1 2026.
What started as a supportive environment quickly reversed as inflation fears and geopolitical risk crept back in.
How did the Northstar BCI Income Fund navigate it? Watch the full 9-min update with Sebastian Holzbach and Refiloe Modise.
youtu.be/p0x-Zpm-NHw
#FixedIncome #BondMarkets #InvestmentStrategy
What actually drove S&P 500 returns, and what does it mean for the next decade?
Mark Seymour of @NorthstarAM unpacks the real drivers of equity returns across different eras. The conclusion: strong economies don't always mean strong market returns.
Worth reading if you're interested in long-term return assumptions.
northstar.co.za/quarterly_re…
#SP500 #Investing #AssetAllocation #LongTermReturns
Q1 2026 was a sharp reminder: markets can shift fast.
An oil price shock, geopolitical escalation, and a reversal in rate expectations made it one of the toughest quarters for quality-oriented investors in recent memory.
Our Head of Research, Donovan Stefan, unpacks it all with analyst Marang Morudu in the Northstar Global Flexible Fund Q1 update.
What's covered:
0:35 | Fund performance and key return drivers 2:43 | Themes shaping the team's forward view 5:02 | How the fund is positioned for opportunity 6:48 | Key takeaways for long-term investors
If you want to see how a disciplined, quality-at-a-reasonable-price approach holds up under pressure, this is worth 7 minutes of your time.
youtu.be/YDBlDFCd7U4
#GlobalFlexibleFund #Investing #WealthManagement #Q12026
Northstar Asset Management retweeted
Risk appetite among investors is skyrocketing:
Risky asset fund inflows have exceeded safe asset fund inflows by a record $220 billion over the last 4 weeks.
Risky assets represent equities and corporate bonds, among others, while safe assets include money markets and Treasury bonds.
This stands in sharp contrast to 2025, when safe asset funds drew more inflows than risky funds for most of the year.
The recent surge even surpasses the highs of ~$200 billion seen during the 2021 meme stock frenzy.
To put this into perspective, during the 2020 pandemic, safe asset fund inflows exceeded risky fund inflows by more than $500 billion.
Investors are taking on more risk than ever.
The first quarter of 2026 reminded investors how quickly market conditions can shift. Rising geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and fading rate-cut expectations all contributed to a more volatile environment, both globally and locally. In reviewing the Northstar BCI Equity Fund over the quarter, Marco Barbieri chatted with Marang Morudu unpacking the drivers of returns for Northstar's SA Equity Fund, as well as how the fund navigated the difficulties and where the opportunities may lie. To watch the full video and discussion, click here: youtube.com/watch?v=wxz-WavY…
Price Of Silver Surges Friday—Surpasses $80 Following Weak Job Creation - Forbes apple.news/AqHTAubywS3GyAOha…
Why America stopped building the “starter home” - The Washington Post apple.news/AcoSCo0AmRUGB4iip…
We’ve written an open letter to Mr Price’s board raising serious concerns about the proposed NKD acquisition. The deal appears off-strategy, earnings-dilutive, poorly disclosed, and has already destroyed R9bn in shareholder value. Shareholders deserve answers!
Northstar Asset Management retweeted
Current situation:
1. The US is preparing $2,000 stimulus checks
2. Japan is preparing a $110 billion stimulus package
3. China has approved a $1.4 trillion stimulus package
4. The Fed is officially ending QT on December 1st
5. The US is issuing~$1.9 trillion in treasures per year
6. Canada is restarting its Quantitative Easing program
7. Global M2 money supply is at a record $137 trillion
8. Global rate cuts are at 320+ over the last 24 months
In what world is another wave of inflation not on its way?
“A town is not a town without a PEP.” Pepkor’s dominance in SA retail isn’t just scale — it’s strategy. With 5,899 stores, it leads in essentials like babywear & prepaid handsets, leveraging low costs & trust to expand into financial services. A steady compounder beyond retail.
🔗 northstar.co.za/wp-content/u…
Adobe’s 44% share price drop isn’t a crisis — it’s an opportunity. While markets fear AI disruption, Adobe is building the tools professionals will trust. Strong balance sheet, loyal users, proven leadership.
Read: northstar.co.za/wp-content/u…