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ALT GOES-16 IR image from 1800 UTC showing location of 994 mb low pressure center across the W Atlantic and cold front extending SW and into northern Cuba. Yellow contour identifies area of seas 12 ft and greater, with wave height observations in yellow numerals.
ALT Color image of GFS wave height forecast valid 1800 UTC, with wave height contours of GFS and ECMWF wave models overlaid in fine lines, with red lines indicating 12 ft. Thick yellow contour identifies area of seas 12 ft and greater, with wave height observations in yellow numerals (feet), with estimated maximum seas of 21 ft. Green goalpost symbol shows location of Saildrone 1041 at 17Z measuring seas of 4.2 meters.
ALT Same contour for 12 ft seas and wave observations as previous images, overlaid on 1400-1500 UTC ASCAT scatterometer wind data. Red colored flags indicate wind speeds of 30-33 kt and dark blue flags indicate 34-38 kt. Bermuda is located just NW of the low center.
ALT Map of the Tampa Bay area indicated the areas of coverage mentioned in the post
ALT 4am CDT July 5th Key Messages For Hurricane Beryl: 1. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are beginning to occur across the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area. Residents there should shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions today. 2. There is an increasing risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall in portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas late this weekend. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl and updates to the forecast. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today. 3. Rip currents could cause life-threatening beach conditions beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast.
ALT NOAA's Seasonal Hurricane Outlook for the Atlantic in 2024 anticipates 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, 4-7 major hurricanes, and 150-245% of normal accumulated cyclone energy. These are the highest predictions on record for a May outlook, with the exception of accumulated cyclone energy which is the second highest to 2010. The long term seasonal averages are 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.