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big two weeks ahead of us. rate decision this week and big tech earnings. Then midterms next week. boy oh boy. volatility should be JUICY.
We have yet to watch this (we will) but the data clearly shows labor breaks before AI goes to zero. Which means pivot in rates comes before the fundamentals do. Which aligns with our thesis that the last bull phase is ahead and not behind. And it likely ends in a global financial crisis. The data below is from our EMBER app.
HOW @citrini SEES THINGS RIGHT NOW:
AI can design drugs like scorpion antivenom largely on its own (he did it with @claudeai) but the new bottlenecks here are monkeys/testing (rather than compute).
The reflexive risk in financing the AI buildout is REAL.
^it's not 2023 anymore & cash flows can't fund the whole thing so buildout is dependent on financial conditions whose tightening affects fundamentals.
The trade from AI Drug Discovery is to be LONG EXPERIMENTS rather than long the IP itself. Citrini actually thinks the value of early stage assets is going to GO DOWN. The stock he mentions is Charles River (a preclinical testing company that has monkeys is in a shortage that Citrini expects to get more extreme). More names in the piece. $CRL
ENJOY.
Apple
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Spotify
open.spotify.com/episode/405…
YouTube
youtube.com/watch?v=rzQhjayC…
CITRINI'S PIECE, "Citrini Therapeutics
We Wanted to Use Claude to Create a New Drug. Here’s What Happened.":
citriniresearch.com/p/citrin…
Anthropic's Technical Blog Post, "How Claude designed protein binders against scorpion neurotoxins":
anthropic.com/research/claud…
Sell today because of an issue in 2030 ? And this isn't '97 ? Are you sure? Nothing bullish will happen before then? Anthropic definitely doesn't have a model release lined up to boost the IPO and OpenAI will just roll over... are we really, really sure?
SO IMPORTANT. This is true *IF* the AI story is dead. The rotation right now is bullish on the AI story. GDP is only growing because of AI spending. Take that away and we are in a recession. Rotation trade blows up. That's only not happening because money is seeking temporary safety while waiting to buy the dip on the AI names. Hence why I keep talking about being bullish AI.
People keep saying this bs yet no one can show you data saying demand is actually falling off or that there is less token usage. Cause there isn't. It's still rapidly growing. Jevons in play and most of the new data centers aren't even built yet. If this is the thesis it's '97 not 2000.
A big part of this video is to also remind that if the AI story fails the rotations will fail too. Explained below.
Record margin debt. Record leveraged ETFs. "It's dot-com all over again."
Every AI bubble warning sign you're being fed is misleading you. I spent 30 minutes going through them one by one, receipts included.
New video: youtu.be/F_oo7n3I2Js
Record margin debt. Record leveraged ETFs. "It's dot-com all over again."
Every AI bubble warning sign you're being fed is misleading you. I spent 30 minutes going through them one by one, receipts included.
New video: youtu.be/F_oo7n3I2Js
Every new model has seen a pop. If the next model comes out and market gets no reaction - that's when I get worried.
And keep in mind most of these bears expect other areas of the market like healthcare to benefit from AI. How they going to do that? With a $20/mo fee? $200/mo fee? No. They will use agent systems that are likely overseen by frontier models through the API.
Which needs data centers.
And energy.
All the things they are bearish on.
Everything says bubble later - still parabolic for now.
This - and people "reverse engineering" income off of monthly subscriptions.. I mean that's just incompetence. Corporations and small businesses are paying per token through the API. Not a monthly fee. @gnoble79 @edzitron
I like hearing bear cases but it never feels like they understand the bull case. If you don't know the other side then you don't know the trade. Sorry.
This - and people "reverse engineering" income off of monthly subscriptions.. I mean that's just incompetence. Corporations and small businesses are paying per token through the API. Not a monthly fee. @gnoble79 @edzitron
I like hearing bear cases but it never feels like they understand the bull case. If you don't know the other side then you don't know the trade. Sorry.
George @gnoble79, you say that "pricing on compute and tokens is collapsing at a breathtaking rate".. What data do you have that shows compute prices collapsing? Every chart I see on GPU hourly rental rates is up and to the right.
I agree that token prices are falling, but can you explain how OpenAI and Anthropic's revenue continues to grow at pretty healthy rates if token prices are collapsing?
You also claim that Anthropic is selling dollar bills for 20 cents. What data or numbers are you looking at which suggest that Anthropic has negative gross margins and is spending more on compute than revenue? For reference, I saw in the WSJ this week that for the first 6 months of 2026, Anthropic recorded $16.3 billion in revenue with $9 billion spent on computing capacity and infrastructure. Bloomberg, amongst others, also reported that in Q3-26, Anthropic's revenue was $16.8 billion, with 85% gross margins, "compute margins" of 40%+, and positive free cash flow. I assume gross margins only deduct for inference-serving compute costs, while "compute margin" is further burdened for model training costs. In any event, it would seem that Anthropic's revenue is (significantly) greater than its total compute costs, so I would love to know what you're looking at when you state that Anthropic is selling dollar bills for 20 cents.
NoBellTrading retweeted
the $AAPL option chain is broken... support told me exchange is having issues.
NoBellTrading retweeted
The rotation trade doesn't hold if the AI trade fails. Few understand this. Lots of people are saying healthcare is about to be a huge winner because of AI. Okay... so where are they going to run that AI? And with what energy? So you're going to sell the data center and energy stocks because demand is going to increase? None of it makes any sense. No one is thinking properly about the situation.
NoBellTrading retweeted
IREN’s @danroberts0101 speaks to @ArjunKharpal about AI financing and demand on CNBC.
Watch the full interview.
NoBellTrading retweeted
The world’s most accomplished tech founders and business leaders are betting hundreds of billions on AI with extraordinary conviction. Meanwhile much of the investing world thinks they’re making a massive mistake. The irony is hard to ignore. An investment industry where very few have historically managed to beat a passive index is now questioning the judgment of the people building the technology and running the businesses that will put it to work. Maybe the investors are right. Maybe the builders are. But I can’t remember a time when the stakes were this high and the two sides saw the future so differently.
No responses from any bears on this and $SPCX then blows minds with info that was 100% free and obvious.
Too much debt has been the bear case for decades now. Whether relating to companies or the government. And unfortunately low and high IQ people fall for it equally. At the end of the day there is wisdom in markets. There is no reason to be arguing with a million people at once as you get blasted out of yet another stupid position.
Flows talk. Market talks.
We been making fun of dumb AI bear takes but end of the day if energy markets and yields (which is actually what is killing equities now) want to bring it down then we won't fight it.
And yes, indexes were clearly weak today in price action. We still believe market goes much higher next year. Both in technicals and fundamentals.
If this is truly what they mean then these people are even dumber than I thought. Like weaponized incompetence levels of stupid.
“.. At the moment, we have more compute capacity than we have demand, and we have a lot of the tokens and processing power being given away in freemium solutions,” he told @CNBC. “Everyone in the AI race is running for a last-man standing position.”
cnbc.com/2026/10/19/gartner-…
