Engineer, investor, artist, and space enthusiast. Creator & manager of Polaris Intelligence, an AI-powered disruptive tech regime tracker for investors.

Anchorage, Alaska
Joined March 2026
Polaris Intelligence is live. A daily read on where 8 disruptive-technology sectors sit in their structural cycle, and what could make or break each one. AI, crypto, defense, space, energy, robotics, biotech, and quantum. This is an observatory, not a prediction engine.
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A recent snippet from the Polaris Command View briefing: "SPACE & AEROSPACE — Rocket Lab's Neutron timing: Rocket Lab said on October 14 that Neutron's first launch is now expected in 2027; NASASpaceFlight attributes the delay to carbon fibre problems. Its Q3 report, estimated for November 9 per MarketBeat, must show revenue within or above the $250M-$265M range and a concrete first-flight window. Rocket Lab's company-confirmed 2027 date leaves that test unmet unless management gives a dated window. It holds Space & Aerospace fragility at Emerging; a further Neutron delay beyond 2027, Q3 revenue below $250M or GAAP gross margin below 29% would move it to Present."
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Horizon Filter for Oct 16, 2026: This week the tape and the filings pointed different ways. Anchors in six sectors closed lower on Oct 14 while TSMC, AEP and Google put numbers and signatures on the record. One company, Rocket Lab, moved a launch window. HIGH SIGNAL this week: [AI & Chips] TSMC’s Q3 6-K shows revenue of $46.72B (+41.2% YoY) against $44.6-45.8B guidance, gross margin of 66.4% inside its 65-67% range, and a Q4 guide of $52.3-54.3B at the same margin range. Filed numbers from the manufacturer at the base of the supply chain show demand running ahead of plan, with no margin expansion in the guide. [Energy Transition] On Oct 14, AEP signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Google for a ~$4B, 702 MW Bloom Energy fuel cell plant near Cheyenne, with operations expected by end-2028. Coming within two weeks of Constellation’s nuclear contracts with Google and Amazon, it shows hyperscalers contracting for power from whatever source is available. The contract is signed, but the plant is not yet operating. [Space & Aerospace] Rocket Lab said on Oct 14 that Neutron’s first launch is now expected in 2027, after the debut had already moved from mid-2026 to late 2026. Electron evidence is intact (record $234M Q2 revenue, $2.36B backlog). The second vehicle is the one slipping, and this is a company-confirmed delay, not a market opinion. [Biotech & Longevity] AstraZeneca and insitro announced an AI discovery deal on Oct 15: $40M upfront, up to ~$1.46B in milestones. Iambic ($150M, Oct 14) and City Therapeutics (~$200M, Oct 15) priced IPOs the same week. Upfronts and IPO proceeds are committed capital, while the milestone total is a ceiling.
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LOW SIGNAL this week: developments that generated headlines without advancing structural understanding: [AI & Chips] ASML said on Oct 14 that some customers are expressing interest in orders for 2029 and 2030, alongside a profit beat. Interest is not a purchase order, and a beat is measured against expectations, not against structure. It becomes High Signal when that interest shows up as confirmed orders or backlog. Expressing interest in 2030 costs nothing. The machines cost rather more. [Cross-Sector] Over the five sessions to Oct 14, IonQ fell 24.0%, Quantinuum 25.3%, Oklo 21.1%, Rigetti 19.9% and Rocket Lab 17.7%. On Oct 14 alone, Nvidia fell 3.2%, Constellation 5.5% and Strategy 5.9%, with roughly $1B in crypto liquidations reported across Oct 14-15. Reported triggers differed (Korean memory-competition worries, AI-funding worries, a hot CPI print). When assets with different structural readings fall together, the common factor is macro or liquidity, not sector information. It would become High Signal if a named buyer cut or delayed committed capital, or a named issuer disclosed a financing failure. Neither appeared in the Oct 16 reading. [Defense Tech] The Army announced a Futures and Autonomous Systems Command (memo signed Oct 1) and told the services to prioritize autonomous-systems procurement by FY2028. Anduril’s NGC2 award is up to $1.8B over five years, with $162.8M in the base period. A command and a memo are organization, not funding, and “up to” is a ceiling, so the committed portion is the base period. Army Pacific named the continuing resolution its biggest challenge on Oct 14. This becomes High Signal when FY2027 appropriations language funds the office or a first award lands under the autonomy portfolio executive.
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The week sorted evidence by what it cost to produce. TSMC filed its numbers, AEP and Google signed 20 years, and Rocket Lab told investors a launch had moved. ASML offered interest, the Army offered an org chart, and a correlated sell-off said very little about any one sector. Both halves of the Balanced Orbital Model were visible: demand evidence at the chip base held, and the second launch vehicle is the part of the space story that slipped. Polaris Intelligence — structural regime intelligence for disruptive tech investors. Not investment advice. polarismeridian.com
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The 28th Almanac entry covering the Energy Transition sector and the big 3.6 GW Google-Constellation deal is out! Polaris Intelligence is live and Almanac entries will soon be behind a paywall, but for now you can read the full version on Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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And if you liked that and you're investing in disruptive tech, come and check out our site. Every new subscriber gets 2-weeks of Observatory-tier access free to see all we have to offer. No CC required... the way free trials should be. See you over there. polarismeridian.com
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Free account: 14 days of full Observatory access, no credit card required. After that you keep a free tier (2 sectors, with a 2-day delay). Founding offer: the first 100 paid subscribers get Observatory ($39/mo) locked in at $19/mo for as long as they stay subscribed.
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polarismeridian.com I built this for my own research and spent months refining it. Each day's reading is drafted by AI, put through 3 layers of AI review, and reviewed by myself personally. Errors can still happen; I correct them when I find them. Not investment advice.
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The 27th Polaris Almanac entry covering the Defense sector's major contracts is now published! Polaris Intelligence is live and Almanac entries will eventually be behind a paywall, but for a limited time you can read it for free on my Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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#SpaceX The 26th Polaris Almanac entry covering SpaceX's successful Starship flight 14 is now published! Polaris Intelligence is live and Almanac entries will eventually be behind a paywall, but for a limited time you can read it for free on my Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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#TSLA The 25th Polaris Almanac entry covering the Tesla and the Cybercab & Optimus product line is out! Polaris Intelligence is live and Almanac entries will eventually be behind a paywall, but for a limited time you can read it for free on my Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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#Bitcoin The 24th Polaris Almanac entry covering the Crypto & DeFi sector is out! Polaris Intelligence is now live and Almanac entries will soon be behind a paywall, but for a limited time you can read it for free on my Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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#NVDA The 22nd Polaris Almanac entry covering Nvidia's Q2 earnings and the AI & Chips sector is out! Polaris Intelligence is live and Almanac entries will soon be behind a paywall, but for a limited time you can read it for free on my Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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#SMR The 20th Polaris Almanac entry covering the Energy Transition sector and the SMR narrative is out! Polaris Intelligence (polarismeridian.com) is only hours away from public launch. But for a limited time you can still read it and other Almanac entries for free on my Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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#Quantum The 19th Polaris Almanac entry covering the Quantum Computing sector's transition to Structural Expansion. Polaris Intelligence will be launching very soon, after which this will be behind a paywall. But for now you can read it for free on my Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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#Defense #drones The 18th Polaris Almanac entry covering the Defense Tech sector is out! Polaris Intelligence will be launching soon to the public, and once that happens it'll be behind a paywall. But until then, you can read it for free on my Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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#Bitcoin #DeFi The 17th Polaris Almanac entry covering Crypto & DeFi is out! Polaris Intelligence will be launching soon, and after that it'll be behind a paywall. But until then, you can read it for free on my Substack: nicholasberget.substack.com/…
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