NET 7

The United States appears to be clearing the battlefield for a larger military campaign against the Islamic Republic. In recent days, American forces have been systematically degrading the regime’s air-defence and missile belt along the Strait of Hormuz. These are not isolated retaliatory strikes. They constitute a sustained shaping operation against surface-to-air missile batteries, associated radars, anti-ship systems and mobile launchers across Qeshm, Larak, Sirik, Jask and the southern Iranian coast. President Trump confirmed that American forces recently destroyed a newly constructed Iranian anti-aircraft position on Qeshm Island within approximately five to 15 minutes. Similar explosions have been reported across the area for several consecutive nights. In military terms, the United States is conducting suppression and destruction of enemy air defences, known as SEAD and DEAD, alongside counter-force operations against missile launchers. The objective is to prevent the IRGC from rebuilding a coherent defensive and maritime-denial network around the Strait of Hormuz. American forces are also reportedly expanding their use of decoy drones. These systems are not merely distractions. They are tools for dismantling the enemy’s electronic order of battle. When a decoy enters defended airspace, Iranian radar operators face a choice. They can remain silent and allow an unidentified aircraft to approach, or activate their systems and attempt an interception. Once a radar begins transmitting, American intelligence assets can identify its position, operating frequency, detection range, reaction time and engagement procedure. If the battery fires, it expends a scarce interceptor and reveals the location of its launcher. That information immediately improves the American target bank. Repeated probes therefore force the regime to choose between remaining blind or exposing its defences to destruction. Each night produces more electronic intelligence, consumes additional Iranian resources and reduces the number of surviving systems available for a future confrontation. The geography is deliberate. Qeshm and Larak overlook the shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. Sirik and Jask extend the regime’s surveillance, missile and naval reach into the Gulf of Oman. Systems positioned across this belt can threaten commercial shipping, American aircraft, naval vessels and regional bases. A larger American campaign against missile-production facilities, IRGC command centres, nuclear-related infrastructure or deeper military targets would require relatively secure approach corridors. Launching high-volume strike packages while the coastal integrated air-defence system remains intact would unnecessarily expose fighters, bombers, drones and cruise missiles to greater risk. It would also preserve the regime’s ability to retaliate against ships and disrupt the strait. The current operation is reducing that risk before any decision on broader action is executed. It is producing three essential military effects: ▪️ Physical degradation: Destroying launchers, radars and air-defence batteries before they can participate in a larger engagement. ▪️ Target development: Forcing surviving systems to reveal their locations and behaviour so they can be struck rapidly later. ▪️ Tempo control: Keeping the IRGC reactive while American tankers, carriers and strike assets maintain the initiative. The timing is also significant. American restraint during the midterm election period has ended. Limited strikes are now continuing while additional capabilities move into the region and the administration evaluates larger options. This does not prove that a major campaign has been ordered. Shaping operations can also be used to maintain deterrence and protect maritime movement without proceeding to full escalation. But the military logic is unmistakable. The United States is clearing the outer defensive layer, mapping what survives and keeping the southern threat envelope suppressed. If a larger campaign begins, the work required to open its air and maritime corridors is already underway.