Founder, Investor, Advisor and Options Trader
Joined October 2016
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NeilMirch retweeted
Unbelievable.
3 hours later and the 10Y Note Yield is now above 5.20% for the first time in 19 years.
The 10Y Note Yield is now up +50 basis points in 30 days and +30 basis points in 2 days.
Even more remarkable is that the average American has no idea this is happening. Yet.
The bond market is imploding in front of our eyes.
NeilMirch retweeted
UPDATE: An Amtrak construction crew accidentally cut into a fiber line in New Jersey which caused a telecom outage and forced FAA to pause flights in the Northeast.
Right now:
- Flights are resuming at LGA and PHL
- Flights into EWR, JFK, and Teterboro Airport are paused
This incident underscores the need for additional funding to modernize aging infrastructure and prevent disruptions like this in the future.
Follow @FAANews for updates.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Amtrak stated the cut was by a New Jersey Transit contractor on NJ Transit property, not an Amtrak crew. businessinsider.com/faa-outage-new… nbcnewyork.com/new-jersey/new…
Verizon said contractors cut its cable running adjacent to an Amtrak rail line. reuters.com/world/us/faa-h…
NeilMirch retweeted
BREAKING: The Bank of Japan raises interest rates by 25 basis points to the highest level since 1995 due to elevated inflation.
After the rate hike in June, this marked the shortest interval between rate increases in Japan since 1990.
The global rate hike cycle has arrived.
NeilMirch retweeted
BREAKING: United Airlines will cancel some December flights because of fuel costs, with CFO Mike Leskinen saying there will be flights in December "that we won't fly that we thought we were going to fly," and that if fuel stays high the airline will make cuts even into the first quarter "and beyond into 2027."
US jet fuel surged to $4.63 a gallon, up +105% since the war began, and US airline fares were up 23% year over year in August with most of the recent rise not yet in the data.
NeilMirch retweeted
BREAKING: The Federal Reserve officially hikes interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate hike since July 2023.
This ends the longest Fed interest rate pause since 2008.
NeilMirch retweeted
Every $10k of @AnthropicAI equity from May 2023 would be worth ~$1M with a $2T IPO, which could be as soon as October.
As a follow up to my post on the $1M grant at the Series C that's worth $51M today (51x in about 3 years).
Modeling an additional 10% dilution between now and the IPO date, that employee's $1m grant would become a whopping ~$96M (assuming $2T)
The S-1 is already filed, but we'll see if $2T holds. Some reports cite $1.5T.
Unprecedented, and good luck to Bay Area home-buyers.
NeilMirch retweeted
BREAKING: NBA star Kevin Durant turned $250,000 into more than $60M on Hugging Face
Durant and longtime business partner Rich Kleiman backed the AI company early, writing a reported $100,000 check in the seed round and another $150,000 in the Series A. Nvidia's $12.9B acquisition delivered the payday
The position ranks among the most lucrative investments any athlete has ever made, and it beats what Durant will earn on the court this season
NeilMirch retweeted
I sell data center capacity for a living. The conversation with customers has changed completely in the last eighteen months.
It used to start with price per kW. Now the first question out of everyone’s mouth is when can you actually give me power, and the honest answer in most major metros is later than you want to hear.
Everyone wants to argue about GPU supply. That is not where the wall is. The wall is a transformer you order today that arrives in three years, a permitting process that answers to a county board, and an interconnection queue with roughly 2,000 gigawatts stacked up in it. PJM ran the numbers on projects that came online last year and the average was over seven years from request to live power. Three years to get an agreement, four more years to actually energize after the agreement was signed.
And this is the easy part. We are nowhere near the peak of this demand curve. There is at least another order of magnitude coming, and the grid that is supposed to absorb it operates on utility capital planning cycles that were designed in a world where load growth was flat for twenty years.
Which is why the orbital compute argument stopped sounding exotic to me sometime around last fall. Up there you get uninterrupted sunlight, you dump heat straight into vacuum instead of running chillers, and there is no zoning hearing, no queue position, no substation to wait on.
Plenty of companies have interesting orbital compute concepts. Only one of them owns the rocket, has the scale, and deeply embedded partnership with Nvidia.
SpaceX filed with the FCC in January to launch and operate up to a million compute satellites, and there is exactly one launch provider on Earth with the cadence and the cost structure to make that number anything other than a press release. Starship is the reason this is an infrastructure plan and not a science project.
The constraint on the ground is the grid. The constraint in orbit is mass to LEO. SpaceX is the only company that has solved the second one.
$SPCX
Nvidia today announced that @spacexai will deploy Vera CPUs to accelerate its next generation of agentic AI applications.
"SpaceXAI plans to expand its AI infrastructure behind Grok on Nvidia Vera Rubin, while extending an optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 into space with its first-generation Starmind satellite.
SpaceXAI’s work with Nvidia is moving beyond AI factories on Earth. SpaceXAI is developing AI computing infrastructure for orbit, where power, thermal management, bandwidth, reliability and physical integration impose dramatically different constraints from conventional data centers.
SpaceXAI’s planned first-generation Starmind AI satellite will be based on the optimized Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 rack-scale system, extending the same accelerated computing architecture powering next-generation AI factories on Earth into space.
Nvidia and SpaceXAI are working to adapt that foundation to the requirements of orbital computing while preserving a common Nvidia architecture and software ecosystem.
This delivers one computing foundation across a wide range of environments: Vera CPUs accelerating increasingly sophisticated AI agents, Vera Rubin powering the AI infrastructure behind Grok and gigawatt-scale AI factories on Earth, and Nvidia accelerated computing extending into orbital AI infrastructure."
NeilMirch retweeted
BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, is hiking prices of many servers containing its AI chips by more than 15% as memory costs soar, per Bloomberg.
The price hikes will go into effect on systems shipped early next year and will include those with the flagship Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell chips.
“AI-flation” continues.
NeilMirch retweeted
Electricians in Texas are making $280,000 a year with no degree. Some of them aren't even 30.
The reason is buried in one number almost nobody outside construction knows. Electrical work is 45 to 70% of the cost of building a data center. One trade captures the majority of the biggest construction boom in American history, which is why the electricians union is out here lobbying for the thing half the country wants banned.
The supply math makes it wilder. The US has about 819,000 electricians and needs 300,000 more over the next decade for AI demand alone, while 20,000 retire every year and nearly 30% of union electricians are between 50 and 70. IBEW Local 26 sits in Northern Virginia, the data center capital of the world, and has doubled its membership since 2018 to 14,700. Journeymen there make $59.50 an hour. Foremen on overtime clear $200,000.
Apprentices start around $26 an hour with zero college debt, funded by the same industry trimming its white-collar payroll.
Here's the part the union already knows.
The IBEW's own magazine ran a cautionary tale this cycle about a Louisiana local that staffed a too-good-to-be-true megaproject in the 80s, trained 1,000 nonunion electricians to get it done, and watched those workers become the nonunion backbone that cut the local down to 3% market share once the project ended. Their own leadership's lesson was to never abandon the everyday work, because boom jobs won't be waiting when the boom ends.
Data center builds last 18 to 24 months per campus.
The union is betting it can ride a decade of them without repeating Louisiana. Either way, electricians are the one group in the AI debate whose incentives require zero decoding.
NeilMirch retweeted
BREAKING: AI is delivering the largest capex-driven boost to GDP in history, per Bloomberg.
NeilMirch retweeted
BREAKING: Anthropic is preparing to file publicly for its mega-IPO as soon as the end of this month, per Bloomberg.
Anthropic expects to "match or beat" the size of SpaceX's $SPCX record setting IPO.
NeilMirch retweeted
JUST IN: Claude AI developer Anthropic to file for IPO as soon as end of August, expecting to match or exceed SpaceX's record, Bloomberg reports.
NeilMirch retweeted
BREAKING: Anthropic is preparing to publicly file its initial public offering prospectus as soon as the end of August 2026, per Bloomberg
NeilMirch retweeted
Big Short investor Steve Eisman has said that the artificial intelligence boom has become increasingly dependent on the fortunes of just two companies: OpenAI and Anthropic, per CNBC
NeilMirch retweeted
2011, Seed, $20mm valuation
2012, Series A, $18mm round
2014, Series C, $1.75bn valuation
2019, Series G, $35bn valuation
2020, Series G Ext, $36bn valuation
2021, Series H, $95bn valuation
2023, Series I, $50bn valuation
2025, Tender Offer, $106.7bn valuation
2026, Tender Offer, $159bn valuation
Massive win for Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz, in from the seed
Thrive invested in Series C
🤝 Paid partnership
