PhD, Iranian Studies | Assoc. Fellow, @MiddleEastInst | @ColumbiaSIPA alum | Commentary on Iranian FP, regional dynamics, & civil society | Farsi/English/French
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Joined January 2020
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On the 46th anniversary of the revolution that unleashed political Islam, ousted a strong American ally, and changed the ME and the national security imperatives of western countries and Israel a simple thread as to what happened and why:
Comparing a country’s currency to the value of a roll of toilet paper should be a new economic index. It’s a language easily understood, and as we see now with the Islamic regime in Iran, realistic!
A roll of toilet paper in Tehran costs about 600,000 rials. They only have 140 sheets there, so one sheet costs about 4,000 rials; one rial buys a scrap less than 2 mm across. For an ordinary Iranian on the minimum wage, that roll is half an hour’s work.
Now, for Iran’s banks, the historic collapse in Rial value is the business model. Top 17 Iranian banks reported about $2 billion of profit last year, and almost none of it came from actual banking. It came from marking up the foreign currency on their books after the rial fell. The rial’s collapse is their only meaningful source of profit.
نگاهی به این موضوع بیندازیم که اعتصاب‌ها در سال ۱۹۷۸ چگونه روند سقوط شاه را سرعت بخشیدند:
کارگران صنعت نفت ایران از سپتامبر ۱۹۷۸ دست به اعتصاب زدند و در اواخر اکتبر، با شکل‌گیری اعتصاب سراسری و تعیین‌کننده، ضربه‌ای جدی به حکومت وارد شد.
تولید نفت از ۵/۷ میلیون بشکه در روز به ۱/۵ میلیون بشکه در دسامبر سقوط کرد و در نهایت به صفر رسید.
ایران امروز، حتی بدون شکل‌گیری اعتصاب‌های گسترده، به نقطه‌ای مشابه رسیده است. کارکنان دولت، پرستاران و معلمان به خیابان‌ها آمده‌اند. ارزش ریال عملاً از بین رفته، رهبری حکومت در وضعیت آشفته و متزلزلی قرار دارد و نیروی دریایی و نیروی هوایی رژیم عملاً کارایی خود را از دست داده‌اند.
شاید مرحله بعد، ریزش و جدا شدن بخشی از نیروهای درون حاکمیت باشد.
A look back on how strikes sped up Shah’s demise in 1978:
Iranian oil workers began striking in Sep. ‘78 with the decisive nationwide walkout late Oct.
Production nosedived from 5.7m/day to 1.5m/day in Dec to 0.
Iran is at this point now WITHOUT strikes. Gov workers, nurses and teachers are on the streets. Rial is worthless, leadership is in tatters and regime navy/air is nonfunctional.
Elite defection might be next.
Will an economic crisis lead to revolution?
In a “rare admission” Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council expressed concern over “rapidly deteriorating economy” where Iran’s currency has plummeted, inflation is ballooning, and funds are drying up.
Rezaei “described the circumstances as among the most difficult periods the country has faced.” NYTIMES
At the same time Washington was deliberating the MOU, Tehran was planning the attack on US-run base in Fairford and enlisting British sleeper cells in Manchester to massacre Jews.
Diplomacy with IR is essential but is not a miracle worker in changing the nature of the regime.
"The police have cast a wide net in trying to find those responsible for hiring the men, whom one official described as “unwitting chumps.” U.S. and British officials believe the operation is connected to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps or a separate military headquarters in Tehran."
nytimes.com/2026/10/03/world…
This duality by @POTUS, survive and become great or deal with hell, is more readily understood by a rational actor.
Tehran is not. It considers a defeat in fiery hell more noble than compromise at a negotiating table.
.@POTUS: I have a big decision to make. Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before — maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic, and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy again? Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness?
Very likely. But since the Woman Life Freedom movement in 2022, the 12 day War in June 2025, and the January massacres of 2026, not to mention the string of executions, the regime has exposed its true hardline self.
Washington will not fall for this.
خبری که ایرانیان خارج از کشور را متحیر و خشمگین کرده:
وزارت خارجه آمریکا موافقت کرده است که برای عباس عراقچی، وزیر امور خارجه رژیم، در جریان نشست مجمع عمومی سازمان ملل (UNGA) تیم حفاظتی تأمین کند؛ تا او بتواند با خیال راحت به ایران برگردد، در پشت درهای بسته با فرماندهان سپاه پاسداران بنشیند و برای حمله بعدی به پایگاه‌های آمریکایی نقشه بکشد؟!
The news that’s baffling Iranians in the diaspora:
The State Dept has agreed to provide security detail for regime’s FM Abbas Araghchi during UNGA so that he can fly home, huddle with IRGC leaders, and start plotting the next hit on American bases?!
جدا از موهایی که بیرونه، یه نکته جالب دیگه اینه که تابلوها و نوشته‌ها به انگلیسی هستن.
پیشگامان این تغییر و تحول بنیادین، زنان جوان و تحصیل‌کرده‌ای هستند که پس از انقلاب به دنیا آمده‌اند، اما در عصر فناوری رشد کرده‌اند.
نمی‌توان این موج را متوقف کرد و همه‌چیز را به گذشته بازگرداند.
Videos from a women’s road race in Tehran on Friday showed several participants running without headscarves, openly defying Iran’s compulsory hijab rules.
At the Tehran 10K, women competed with their hair uncovered in their latest public display of resistance to rules that continue to require women to wear the hijab in public.
The women’s race began Friday morning at Velayat Park in Tehran, with organizers holding separate competitions for women and men. The course covered 10 kilometers over two laps.
Iranian women have increasingly appeared without hijab in public in recent years despite the continuing legal requirement, particularly since the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests sparked by the death of Mahsa “Jina” Amini in morality police custody.
Iranian distance runner Parisa Arab, who holds the national women’s records in the 5,000 meters, 10,000 meters and half marathon, finished first in Friday’s race.
Arab later posted a video showing moments from the competition and her crossing the finish line, saying spectators’ encouragement had given her energy during the most difficult stretches of the race.
Aside from exposed hair, it is noteworthy how the signs are in English.
Leading the way for transformational change are the highly educated young women who are born after the revolution but into the age of technology.
It will be hard to put this genie back into the bottle.
Videos from a women’s road race in Tehran on Friday showed several participants running without headscarves, openly defying Iran’s compulsory hijab rules.
At the Tehran 10K, women competed with their hair uncovered in their latest public display of resistance to rules that continue to require women to wear the hijab in public.
The women’s race began Friday morning at Velayat Park in Tehran, with organizers holding separate competitions for women and men. The course covered 10 kilometers over two laps.
Iranian women have increasingly appeared without hijab in public in recent years despite the continuing legal requirement, particularly since the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests sparked by the death of Mahsa “Jina” Amini in morality police custody.
Iranian distance runner Parisa Arab, who holds the national women’s records in the 5,000 meters, 10,000 meters and half marathon, finished first in Friday’s race.
Arab later posted a video showing moments from the competition and her crossing the finish line, saying spectators’ encouragement had given her energy during the most difficult stretches of the race.
NazeeMoinian retweeted
🧵WATCH THIS FIRST
@NazeeMoinian on @marthamaccallum / The Story. Iranian-born. Fled Tehran at the start of the 1979 revolution. She is not guessing.
youtube.com/watch?v=fmBuaH0C…
Nazee Moinian told Martha MacCallum the truth most of Washington still will not say out loud.
She was born and raised in Tehran. She left when the Islamic regime seized power in 1979. She watched the videos of the regime opening fire on its own people — women, men, children — and said she was not surprised. Then she asked the only question that matters:
If they slaughter their own citizens for demanding freedom, imagine what they will do to everyone else.
She called it an international threat. Not a “regional issue.” Not a gas-price story. A defining moment.
سال‌هاست ناظران امور ایران می‌کوشند با بالاترین درجه هشدار، درباره جمهوری اسلامی و تهدیدی که برای نظم بین‌المللی ایجاد می‌کند، اطلاع‌رسانی کنند.
از همین رو، اینکه جهان تهدید حوثی‌ها را جدی گرفته است، هم مایه خرسندی است و هم تأسف؛ خرسندی از اینکه سرانجام این خطر مورد توجه قرار گرفته و تأسف از اینکه این اتفاق پس از یک دهه طفره‌رفتن و تعلل رخ داده است.
خبر بد این است که جنگ خلیج فارس هزینه سنگینی روی دست آمریکا گذاشته است.
اما خبر خوب این است که حتی پس از پایان جنگ، این جمهوری اسلامی است که باید هزینه‌های آن را برای سال‌ها و حتی دهه‌ها بپردازد.
تا الان دیگر باید روشن شده باشد که چینی‌ها ترجیح می‌دهند امور خود را بی‌سروصدا و دور از هیاهو پیش ببرند.
این رویکرد با ضرب‌المثل معروف چینی که مکررا از آن استفاده میکنند همخوانی دارد: «گلوله به پرنده‌ای اصابت می‌کند که سرش را بیرون آورده باشد.»
آمریکا باید با در نظر گرفتن این موضوع به چینی ها اجازه دهد تا رژیم را بی‌سروصدا و با سیاست کنار بگذارند.
It should by now be clear that the Chinese prefer to conduct their affairs on the quiet side.
It’s in line with their often repeated proverb, “the gun shoots the bird that sticks its head out.”
US should take note and let the Chinese drop the regime quietly and diplomatically.
🚨🇮🇷🇨🇳🇸🇦🇾🇪 BREAKING:
China has reportedly asked Iran, privately, to help rein in Yemen's Houthis, after Riyadh appealed to Beijing.
Saudi sought out China's help after the Houthis made rapid advances along the Red Sea coast this past week.
China has publicly called for restraint, as well as the resumption of safe navigation, but apparently went a bit further in private.
Iran has claimed plausible deniability with regard to the Houthis, although their connection has been obvious...
Iranian FM Araghchi was in Beijing yesterday. Sources in Tehran claim no explicit threats were made.
Just a "friendly request" from the country they depend on to purchase 80+% of their oil...
Source: Reuters / Writer: Michael
The bad news is that the Gulf war is costing US so much money.
The good news is that once the war stops, it is the Islamic regime that will continue to bear costs for years/decades to come.
More than 30% of the entire US Navy is enforcing the #Iran blockade today -- costing ~$1bn a month.
The elite 82nd Airborne Division... is on track for a 12-month deployment in the #MiddleEast without seeing any action.
@becca_wasser for @business: bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-…
For years Iran watchers were trying to sound the five-star alarm on the Islamic regime and the threat it poses to the international order.
It’s both refreshing and sad that the world is taking the Houthi threat seriously albeit after a decade of prevarication.
A lightning advance by Yemen's Houthi group has brought the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait under its control, making the once ragged highland militia a regional player with global clout. Angus McDowell explains reut.rs/4gYQR8O