Managing Director at Forefront | Lecturer at Stanford | Ex Deputy Head of Policy and Special Adviser to Rishi Sunak | Host @whitehallsource pod
London
Joined August 2011
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Joe is right. The difference this year is there are fewer cooks on the political side (remember the ‘budget board’) so it’s no wonder we are reading less.
James Nation retweeted
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@CalumAM | @straighttie | @nationjames
James Nation retweeted
I also think it may just simply be: treasury advice will be clear that we are already at the revenue maximising rate for CGT
Journalists should ask the following:
Will he index capital gains to inflation? (Or will he tax people who haven’t actually made money in real terms?)
Will there be a rate of return allowance to adjust to avoid discouraging investment (relative to consumption)?
Will there be any changes to the treatment of losses? (Or is he content to massively penalise entrepreneurial risktaking?)
Is there going to be an exit tax? (Or will he allow people to avoid the tax by moving to Dubai?)
There is a case for a version of CGT/Income Tax equalisation (see Mirrlees Review), but it will likely raise significantly less than £12bn.
Strong company.
Fun doing 5Live live from a conference balcony (good people watching spot) with @MattChorley @NationJames @PME_Politics and @Dannythefink
What Alan Milburn says on the NLW will be interesting in the context of younger people. Still wonder if the commitment to equalise youth/adult rate is (quietly) dropped or delayed.
The real terms value of the NLW has gone up 42% since its inception. Productivity has gone up 9% over the same period. Load on employer NICs, workplace pension contributions, and the ERA and public policy has been rationing employment opportunities.
By all means defend the NLW at 66% of median earnings (albeit the “bite” has significant regional distortions), but recognise that cumulative labour market policy, from successive govts, has led to ULC rising at the fastest rate in the G7 - with clear evidence of a passthrough to consumer price inflation.
Could be a classic case where the Government implements a ‘good’ opposition idea, especially if many of your outriders are calling for it.
Earning £100k does not make you “rich”, especially if you’re a single-earner family.
The tax trap penalises work and Labour should address it on those grounds. arguably.uk/p/britain-cant-a…
One fiscal event per annum we hardly knew ye. High probability of an old fashioned Spring Statement to try and top up the spending envelope ahead of the Spending Review.
Healey set to delay difficult choices with ‘breathing space’ UK Budget ft.trib.al/uZaisan
So it’s the Scottish style system where minimum personal care costs are covered? If so, how can Ministers claim no one will be forced to sell their home? And it’s still £7-8 billion additional per annum while triple lock savings ramps up. Lot of road to run on this one.
New: Andy Burnham claims he will NOT have to raise taxes to pay for his social care policy and says it could be delayed
Asked by @BethRigby if he’ll raise taxes to pay for it, the PM says: “No, because there's a different way of doing it. If you delay the date of introduction and you introduce a national care service progressively”
The PM’s remarks defy economists who think he’ll have to raise taxes because his changes to the triple lock won’t raise enough money. They will be watched closely by bond investors
His comments also walk back his interview with @bbclaurak at the weekend when he suggested tax rises were on the table to pay for social care
The suggestion of a delay raises big questions about exactly what the policy will be, when it will be implemented, who will benefit, how it will be paid for and whether it’s affordable. All that is unknown right now
John Healey raises hope of fuel duty freeze
thetimes.com/article/42f8713…
Keep this context and risk in mind as you contemplate one of the reasons why Help to Buy is back. Protecting the economic boost from planning is key for the target year.
Great to dive into speculation on the Budget earlier this week with Tom. Listen in here: podfollow.com/housing-unpack…
Pre-Budget Speculation: Mapping The Mansion Tax
Thanks to @NationJames for his great insights as ever into what might appear in the Budget and the political calculations around an early general election.
knightfrank.co.uk/research/a…
Great to be joined on the pod by @siennamarla this week
Would Andy Burnham call an early election?
Deputy Editor of The House Magazine, Sienna Rodgers, says it's unpalatable, but perhaps beneficial to the new Prime Minister.
The latest episode of Whitehall Sources is available now: youtu.be/2BtfXbF-FFI
@CalumAM | @nationjames | @siennamarla
This is ultimately why I think that any ‘flexibilities’ will still need to be limited and fit within the PSNFL framework. Exemptions or carve outs from the fiscal rules would be a surprise. Let’s see.
The public finance rejoinder is that borrowing on the main fiscal rule is £4.8bn above forecast after 5mths as higher inflation drives up spending (by more than strong tax receipts). Devco bonds are not gilt issuance but the fiscal backdrop does not help bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The big risk here is that all of the OBR’s boost comes in the target year for the fiscal rules: 2029/30. In other areas, the fact that 29/30 is the third year is marginally helpful (e.g. higher yields likely to be their most costly at the end of the forecast period) but not here.
EXCLUSIVE 🗞️- Britain’s economic watchdog, the OBR, is concerned that it may have to revise down the boost to GDP it had attached to Labour’s flagship planning reforms and 1.5 million new homes target.
The OBR has invited housing market experts in for meetings in a bid to “understand why the housing market is underperforming” so badly.
This will be a blow to the government and signals the state of our housing market amid worsening economic headwinds including inflation and higher mortgage rates which, in their defence, are neither Labour’s fault nor entirely within their control.
It also raised questions about the OBR’s initial forecast which experts have told me was optimistic at best.
My report @theipaper
inews.co.uk/news/hidden-cost…
James Nation retweeted
But let’s be honest: the real test of this is what the Treasury decides to do by way of ‘expectation management’. Let’s see.
On the scope for spending cuts at the budget, I struggle to see it. 1) resource budgets already very tight politically. SEND reforms kicked to beyond 2030, savings from ILR changes uncertain. If anything, Healey will feel pressure to top up the envelope in the spring; 2) on welfare, Timms is operating under existing OBR assumptions and Milburn has said his changes will require upfront investment.
This was significant from @TheIFS last week. Last year’s story was about a productivity downgrade, this year’s forecast judgement is on migration. My hunch is the OBR has belatedly changed its view on some of the compositional effect, but still a headroom hit in low billions
Confirmed by the OBR yesterday. The forecast timeline will only be revealed alongside the Budget: obr.uk/october-2026-forecast…