🇺🇸🗳️ 17-Oct Nevada Early Voting Update: Day One, and Republicans Hold Their Own 🗳️ In-person early voting opened in Nevada today. After yesterday's North Carolina numbers, I was waiting to see if Nevada would follow. It kind of did... but it hurts Republicans a lot less, and here's why. Benchmark first: Nevada's 2024 early vote finished R+3.6 by party registration, and Trump won the state by 3.1. Day 1 in person (as of 6:28 PM PT): 🔴 R: 7,637 🔵 D: 7,616 🟡 Other: 3,660 That's essentially tied (R+0.1). Day 1 in 2024 was R+24.7. In-person is a large move toward Democrats, and no one should pretend otherwise. We want to see those numbers improve next week. The good news: In Nevada, in-person was already overwhelmingly red and it does not "hurt" us in the same way that NC's shift did. Nevada mails a ballot to every active voter, so mail is most of the early vote there. Right now it's about 58K mail ballots against 19K in person, roughly 3 to 1. 🔵 Mail now: D+1.9 🔵 Mail at the end of 2024 early voting: D+10.1 🔵 Mail at the end of 2022 early voting: D+12.4 🔴 That's an 8–10 point shift toward Republicans in mail (similar to what we're seeing in NC and PA) All early voting combined, mail and in person: 🔵 D+1.4 Where it ends up The in-person share grows as early voting goes on. In 2024, mail went from about three quarters of early ballots at the start to 51% by the end. Suppose today's party shares within each method hold and only that mix changes: • Early vote finishes around 🔵D+0.9, against 🔴R+3.6 in 2024 (the improvement is from IPEV being net red) That's a shift, not a tsunami. NC moved 22 points. Nevada is on pace for about 🔵D+4.5, which leaves the state close to a coin flip by Election Day. What it means for the races 🏛️ CD2 (open seat after Amodei's retirement): at 2024's mix of mail and in-person, it's R+10 by registration. That works out to roughly Flippo +7, so we're on track to hold it. The main risk is Lynn Chapman (Independent American) pulling Republican votes. 🏛️ CD1, CD3 and CD4: Democrat-held, and nothing in the data points to a change. 🏛️ Governor: in 2022, Lombardo ran about 2 points ahead of his party. An electorate around D+1 is within that range, and the polls are tied within 2. Lombardo has a good chance to hold. The advantage depends on: • Republicans closing the in-person gap over the next two weeks. • Republicans showing up on Election Day, which is where Nevada Republicans have been strongest. This is the biggest risk. • Mail staying close. The DataRepublican Nevada map is coming soon on my website. It'll show mail and in-person by county, a CD2 breakout, and comparisons against both 2022 and 2024.