We fact-check NFL hot takes with data. QB rankings every Tuesday. The numbers do not care about your team.
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THE NUMBERS DO NOT CARE ABOUT YOUR TEAM 📊
Top 10 NFL QBs through Week 8, adjusted for the defenses they faced.
Caleb Williams is No. 1 after facing the hardest schedule of any ranked QB.
We fact-check NFL hot takes with data. New QB rankings every Tuesday.
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#NFL
Every week someone fades an #NFL team for the short week, the cross-country flight, or backs one off a bye.
I measured all of it. 3,606 NFL games, 2012–2025, against the closing line.
Pooled effect: −0.05 points. 95% range ±0.74.
All of it is worth nothing. And two of them run backwards.
The Jacksonville Jaguars' defense has a turnover problem.
4th in the NFL with turnovers. 14th without them.
No defense in the league leans on takeaways more. Tonight they face Joe Fagnano in his first career start, so they may get a few more.
Biggest moves with turnovers taken out:
Philadelphia Eagles: 24th to 15th
Los Angeles Chargers: 11th to 19th
Cincinnati Bengals: 17th to 25th
Are takeaways skill or luck?
#NFL #DUUUVAL
How it works: every interception and lost fumble counts as a neutral play, and each defense is adjusted for the offenses it faced. Full ratings at datadisrespect.com
Josh Allen won by 26 and graded like a disaster. Mahomes lost and graded +31.
Week 8 quarterbacks the scoreboard lied about:
Allen won 36-10: -18.5
Stafford won 24-9: -22.2
Rodgers won 27-6: -10.0
Mahomes lost 28-24 at Denver: +31.0 (321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, against a top-10 defense)
Every dropback graded for expected points, completion rate over expected and staying on schedule, then adjusted for the defense faced. Zero is average.
One caveat: Allen ran 7 times for 30 yards, and the grade counts dropbacks only.
Full rankings: datadisrespect.com
#NFL #Bills #Rams #Steelers #Chiefs #Broncos #Ravens #Chargers #Browns
The NFL's best defense has a team record of 3-5, and it isn't the Minnesota Vikings.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
18.9 points allowed per game (5th-fewest)
15 takeaways (tied for most in the NFL)
29.9% third-down conversions allowed (2nd-best)
Best adjusted defense in football
The offense gives them almost nothing.
Minnesota is a close second. Both faced a similar mix of good and bad offenses, so Tampa's edge comes from shutting down Carolina and Atlanta the last two weeks.
All 32 defenses ranked, adjusted for the offenses they faced: datadisrespect.com
#NFL #Buccaneers #Vikings
Data Disrespect retweeted
🤡 WELCOME TO THE NFC SOUTH 🤡
First place: Carolina Panthers at 3-4.
Panthers 3-4
Buccaneers 3-5
Falcons 3-5
Saints 2-5
Combined 11-19. Nobody above .500.
This division already crowned losing-record champs in 2014 and 2022. Hat trick loading.
#NFL #KeepPounding
The Houston Texans lost by 6. The plays say they should have lost by 14.
The New York Giants outgained them 420 to 239, Houston went 3 for 12 on third down.
Biggest Week 7 gaps between scoreboard and play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.7, Houston Texans +8.4, Detroit Lions +7.9
#NFL
Full Week 7 breakdown, all 14 games and the 32-team rankings: datadisrespect.com
Full 33-QB rankings and the breakdown: datadisrespect.com
Chiefs exposed. Mahomes was cooked vs. Seattle.
19/33, 165 yds, 1 INT, 0 TD.
0 red zone trips — first time in 153 career starts (reg + playoffs) that’s happened.
Final: 20-3.
@PatrickMahomes @Chiefs @Seahawks #NFL #ChiefsKingdom
Is the #NFL rigged for the Chiefs and big markets? We checked 10 years of Super Bowls and 31,000 penalties. Here's what the data said:
datadisrespect.com/posts/are…
The Vikings are 5-0 with the 28th-ranked offense in the NFL.
Offense: 28th in EPA per play, 30th in success rate.
Defense: 1st.
Turnovers: +6, 3rd best.
Undefeated on defense and takeaways, not offense. Is that a real 5-0?
Full 32-team rankings and why we have Minnesota 10th, not top 3: datadisrespect.com
Patrick Mahomes is 5-0. Our QB rankings have him 11th.
Kyler Murray is 5-0. He's 22nd.
Winning and playing well aren't the same thing. Every #NFL QB ranked after Week 6:
datadisrespect.com/posts/nfl…
The 49ers Are No. 1, the Packers Jumped 8 Spots, and Denver Fell Out of the Top 15 datadisrespect.substack.com/… #NFL
Week 6 scoreboard vs what the plays said:
Flattered: Saints +6.0, Titans +4.8, Patriots +4.7, Browns +4.3
Robbed: Giants -6.0, Colts -4.8, Jets -4.7, Ravens -4.3
Your record is not your team.
#NFL
