We live in an SNL skit

Elon: "We just demoed a gravity deying car" The Market Today: "Thats cute, but look at the free cash flow on companies that sell cars with four wheels on the ground" 😄 $TSLA

By fall 1983, Peter Lynch held 900 stocks at Magellan (later expanding to 1,400). And I thought holding 40+ positions was pushing it :)

Yes, Buffett wrote about it his 1999 forbes article berkshirehathaway.com/1999ar…

Will move with crude prices, fundamentals are rather strong otherwise. What am I missing?

Right, and not unreasonable to account for it given the $.10c/qtr shortfall to div payout. On the other hand this a very savvy management, has $1B extra cash/liquidity, never skipped div. But can't rule out if they are not able to workout some of the bad loans in few months. It's a best of breed lender in my view, but macro/rates has to stabilize at some point.

Now available at 15.2% yield ... jesus 😄

Very good history lesson. Paraphrasing the last line "The nation that control the gold controls the future" ... Trump basically called it 😄 youtu.be/p2UEpSmGWGI?is=TqBL…

Just elated that someone even read it ... partly. It a one year view on yields and company execution, not betting the farm. 🤞

Long $CANE

The Q3 2026 letter is out. DM if you would like a copy. While the headline index ground out a modest gain this quarter, the reality underneath was a "stealth bear market" marked by 5%+ Treasury yields, $100 oil, and historically poor market breadth. In the letter, I detail how our opportunistic, multi-asset framework allowed us to navigate this narrow breadth as well as thoughts on two new positions. Sharpe Ratio Since July 2022: 1.37 YTD 2026: 1.01

Starwood Property Trust: Asymmetric Risk-Reward Set Up

Claudification @agnostoxxx

A contrarian pick, for AI-like return in real estate. $STWD (Starwood Property Trust) has an asymmetric setup for a possible ~50% total return over the next 12 months If Treasury yields peaks and then declines back within the next year, then a combination of the current 13.3% div yield + rerating back to above its undepreciated book value ($19/share) results in close to 50% return for this best of breed lender. True Multi-Cylinder Engine: Unlike pure-play lenders exposed to a single-sector, $STWD operates across commercial lending, infrastructure, and owned real estate. Built-in Counter-Cyclical Hedge: Its Special Servicing and Investing arm actually benefits when market volatility rises, collecting servicing fees that insulate cash flows when traditional credit tightens. Office Risk Is Overblown: U.S. office makes up less than 8% of its total asset base, with the balance anchored in residential, industrial, and essential infrastructure. Unmatched Dividend Track Record: Management has maintained its quarterly dividend for over 17 yrs without a single cut through multiple rate cycles. Collecting a 13.3% cash yield while waiting for a yield-driven rerating could deliver an equity-like upside with institutional downside protection.

But let's call South Koreans the degenerate gamblers 🤷

What the post is implying seems quite misleading. Software companies revenue has been growing at a very good clip for a long time (high double digit), and since 2023 they haven't grown their employee count that much (vs prior period). When one looks at the cagr growth it's not that crazy when you take those two aspects in account. Unless AI is driving all the top line growth, which is not yet the case. It has been a stronger economy, increasing cloud computing adoption and higher nominal growth from inflation at play that can explain the chart more than "AI is impacting real economy" in my view

B-A-N-A-N-A-S .... Republic

Banana Republic