🚨 A MUCH BIGGER STOCK MARKET CRASH COULD BE COMING IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. The Nasdaq 100 just crashed 5.5% in a week, nearly $1.9 trillion was reportedly wiped out from U.S. tech stocks, and some of the biggest AI names have already fallen 15–25%. But the timing makes this even more concerning. We are just 16 days away from the U.S. midterm elections, and history is flashing a serious warning. Look at some of the biggest market drawdowns during past midterm years: 1974: -35% 1990: -20% 1998: -22% 2002: -34% 2018: -20% 2022: -27% Every midterm election year over the past 50 years has seen a significant market drawdown, with an average decline of roughly 21% across 10 major corrections. And now similar risks are building again. Inflation is heating up, the possibility of further Fed rate hikes is putting pressure on valuations, and political uncertainty is rising just as AI stocks are getting crushed. $MU, $AMD, $LRCX, $DELL and $CRWV have all suffered double digit weekly losses. What's even more concerning is that retail investors reportedly poured $9.1 billion into U.S. equities just before this selloff. There is already talk of another Black Monday, but the bigger risk is what happens over the next few weeks. If the selling spreads beyond AI and semiconductor stocks, the entire market could face a much deeper correction. The last major midterm year selloff in 2022 saw the S&P 500 fall roughly 25% from its peak. With inflation pressure, Fed uncertainty and elections approaching, another major correction cannot be ruled out. The next few weeks could get significantly worse before the market finds a bottom.

💣 اعتراف صادم من سام ألتمان: "توقعاتي كانت خاطئة تماماً.. رغم تطوير الذكاء الاصطناعي، لم يتغير العالم قيد أنملة، ونحن نواجه التزامات مالية بـ 100 تريليون دولار، ونواجه قضايا من كل اتجاه. بصراحة، قد نكون في ورطة حقيقية!" 📉🤯 ​الرجل الذي روّج طويلاً لفكرة أن "الذكاء الاصطناعي سيسرق كل الوظائف ويعيد تشكيل العالم بين عشية وضحاها" يرفع الراية البيضاء ويعترف بالحقيقة المرة: ​وهم التغيير السريع: "كنت أعتقد أن إطلاق GPT-4 سيقلب قطاع البرمجيات رأساً على عقب في لمح البصر.. لكن الواقع كان مختلفاً تماماً، لقد أخطأت في تقدير سرعة تغير المجتمع." ​القصور الذاتي للبشر (Inertia): استخف ألتمان بمدى "كسل" الاقتصاد والمجتمع البشري. مهما كان الذكاء الاصطناعي خارقاً، فالناس يستيقظون ويؤدون أعمالهم بالطريقة نفسها، ويشترون من الشركات القديمة ذاتها. المجتمع لا يتحرك بالسرعة والرشاقة التي يتخيلها مهندسو التقنية. ​تغيير السلوك البشري: "كنت أظن أننا إن صنعنا أداة مذهلة، سيقفز الجميع لاستخدامها فوراً".. لكن تبين أن تغيير العادات اليومية أو القواعد المؤسسية البالية أصعب بمئة مرة من بناء الذكاء الاصطناعي نفسه. ​التقنية سابقة لعصرها: التكنولوجيا هي الأقوى في تاريخ البشرية بلا منازع، لكن "العنصر البشري والنظم الاجتماعية" عاجزون عن مواكبة هذا التسارع. ​الخلاصة المرة: بناء نموذج خارق أسهل بكثير من محاولة إقناع البشر بتغيير طرق حياتهم القديمة! 💀 ​احفظ التغريدة بـ Bookmark 🔖 وشاركنا: هل تعتقد أن البشرية حقاً مقاومة للتغيير إلى هذا الحد، أم أن ثورة الذكاء الاصطناعي لم تضرب بقوة كافية بعد؟ 🧵👇

Kevin's all-in challenge portfolio is down from $85,000 to $32,000 in 4 months! THE MATHS BEHIND NEVER GOING ALL-IN. Please don’t listen to @kevinxu - going all-in is a great way to blow up your account! Here’s why: Even if you’re RIGHT 60% of the time, going all-in on every trade is mathematically disastrous. If you have a 60/40 win/loss probability, how much should you actually bet? 100% of your portfolio? You’re eventually going to hit a losing streak - and one bad trade can wipe you out. 80%? 50%? 30%? Same fundamental problem. The larger you bet, the more vulnerable you become to a string of losses. This is exactly why position sizing matters. The Kelly Criterion is designed to calculate the optimal fraction of your bankroll to risk based on your probability of winning and your payoff. For example, with a 55% win probability and even-money bets, full Kelly is only 10% of your portfolio. Not 100%. Not 50%. 10%. You can be RIGHT more often than you’re wrong and still go broke if you size your bets incorrectly. The goal isn't to maximize your gains on one trade. It's to stay alive long enough for your edge to compound. Never go all-in!

The institutions, who are potentially even more retarded than you are, love to call for an AI bubble and then proceed to buy your AI stocks for cheap

I had to do it 😎 thank you @iPandvil

SpaceX has used thrusters to position spacecraft for decades. Making them work in a vehicle instead of a vacuum took all-new hardware & controls. Every usable void in the car is packed with Carbon Fiber Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) More compressed gas on board = more flight time