@MovieTimeDev

health maxi. Angel, investing in the future. Founder @PredictParity

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Joined July 2024
  • Tweets1.7K
  • Following1.8K
  • Followers6.9K
209Media
MovieTime retweeted
Parity
@PredictParityJul 20
Kalshi is now live on Parity - Price alerts on market movements - Advanced orders types (stop loss, TWAP, market eye) - Track traders - Live trades feed - Multiview Connect with API to start trading today.
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MovieTime retweeted
Parity
@PredictParityMar 9
Prediction markets are onboarding *273,908+ new users every month The retention is what's interesting 50.2% stay more than 1 month 30% stay more than 3 months
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Vegas did $130M on the Super Bowl. Prediction markets did $1.33B. 10x Vegas 1. @Kalshi - $871M 2. @Polymarket - $312M 3. @opinionlabsxyz - $92M 4. @predictdotfun - $31M 5. @Novig - $19M 6. @SX_Bet - $5M 7. @Overtime_io - $443K
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The new age of markets. xitter.cf/PredictParity/status/2…
Parity
@PredictParityFeb 10
Introducing Parity, your edge in prediction markets.
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MovieTime retweeted
Parity
@PredictParityFeb 10
Introducing Parity, your edge in prediction markets.
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Replying to @MovieTimeDev @Kalshi @Polymarket @opinionlabsxyz @predictdotfun @Novig @SX_Bet @Overtime_io
@PredictParity
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Visualized all non-sport prediction markets with $1m+ volume that have ended Biggest takeaway is that these markets are quite asymmetrical
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Thanks @sui414 for the inspo xitter.cf/sui414/status/20162451…
danning
@sui414Jan 27
Prediction markets don’t all aggregate information the same way - Sports bets accumulates volume early on and flattens near the end. While News market stay quiet and rise at the very last portion right before resolution. Very different game (and edges) to play 👀
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Pull all the location data for Prediction Market Twitter. Out of the 280,830 accounts the top locations were United States 56,326 Hong Kong 15,841 India 11,669
ZachXBT
@zachxbtJan 15
A short story. Shame on all of the projects that ran AI slop campaigns via InfoFi platforms. The inorganic activity / fake metrics was obvious if you have common sense and it made X borderline unusable for everyone else.
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The data for anyone interested 1. United States 56,326 2. Hong Kong 15,841 3. India 11,669 4. Nigeria 9,517 5. United Kingdom 8,312 6. Japan 7,119 7. Germany 7,044 8. Canada 6,107 9. Singapore 5,099 10. Spain 4,619 11. Indonesia 4,419 12. France 4,211 13. Vietnam 4,000 14. Europe 3,810 15. Netherlands 3,715 16. Australia 3,652 17. Taiwan 3,570 18. South Korea 3,243 19. Turkey 3,226 20. Ukraine 2,829
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MovieTime retweeted
Adam
@Adam_Tehc3 Nov 2025
It's with a heavy heart I have to admit defeat on prediction markets. Polymarket alone had 251,000 active addresses last week and did $1.1B in volume. Meanwhile, trading bots on Solana did $946M volume with top 5 bots having 139,000 users combined.
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.@MovieTimeDev & @alexmccullaaa's Polymarket accuracy analysis made it on All-in this week. Amazing.
MovieTime
@MovieTimeDev17 Sep 2025
How accurate is Polymarket? 89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution. Fun fact. 78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.
Polymarket accuracy analysis: Expected vs actual outcomes across 56,279 market resolutions

ALT Polymarket accuracy analysis: Expected vs actual outcomes across 56,279 market resolutions

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MovieTime retweeted
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@42space27 Oct 2025

The Cultural Liquidity Gap: Why So Few Moments Become Prediction Markets?

Article · @42space
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Liquidity is the biggest problem in prediction markets. More liquidity = better spreads 19,736 markets on polymarket 16 have >$1M in liquidity 574 have >$100K and 3,401 have >$10k Thin liquidity = wide spreads = bad prices
Polymarket Liquidity Overview

ALT Polymarket Liquidity Overview

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How accurate is Polymarket? 89% accurate 1 week out, but in the final 4 hours it jumps to 95% accuracy right before resolution. Fun fact. 78% of Polymarket events resolve "NO" meaning markets consistently overprice unlikely events.
Polymarket accuracy analysis: Expected vs actual outcomes across 56,279 market resolutions

ALT Polymarket accuracy analysis: Expected vs actual outcomes across 56,279 market resolutions

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Analyzed 52,158 Polymarkets at 12hrs before resolution here is what I found >polymarket is within 2-3% of the actual outcome > its most accurate at 80% odds (variance of 0.3%) > least accurate at 50% odds (with a variance of 6.9%)
Prediction Market Accuracy

ALT Prediction Market Accuracy

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My prediction market timeline recently new markets >kraken + draftkings both bought CFTC exchanges (entering pred markets) expansions >kalshi x jupiter (on-chain liquidity) >NHL licenses to polymarket + kalshi >underdog partnering with cryptocom, kalshi, polymarket
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8% of users yet 53% of the volume prediction market users are betting more, why? >better spread and lower fees >thats the whole value last month we had 751k* traders on prediction markets vs 8.64m* traders on sport books. (mau) daily volume over the last month has averaged $216m on prediction markets compared to the $405.6m volume on sports books. thats 53% of their volume with 8% of the users.
Sports Betting vs Prediction Markets MAU comparison.

ALT Sports Betting vs Prediction Markets MAU comparison.

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56% of positions bought on Polymarket are held until resolution.
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215 wallets (0.08%) controlled 50% of septembers volume on polymarket for reference domer was 37th with $6,946,682 in volume
grouping volume for top wallets on polymarket, month of september

ALT grouping volume for top wallets on polymarket, month of september

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highest concentration is in the $10–$100 range
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Data doesn’t lie
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