Excellent clip from @PaulBPrager CEO @TeraWulfInc today!!! 👀👀👀 $WULF

JUST IN 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 $CIFR The $850M convertible priced at $15.31, inside the range my model laid out before pricing. The surprise is the capped call. It runs 150% above yesterday's close this time, so dilution on the new notes stays covered much higher up, as long as $CIFR pays the principal in cash. That wider protection cost more, so $CIFR keeps less cash. The 2030 notes swap came in a little above conversion value, a few million extra shares once accrued interest is counted. Net of everything, my signed-lease value moves down about 15 cents a share. The full model is below.

IMO, the most interesting macro development post-Fed hike has been the (bear) steepening yield curve (from 26 to 53 bps - since 9/17). In a true hike cycle, YC steepening is anomalous. IMO, this is the market pricing in: 1) A two-hike "mini-cycle" AND 2) A higher neutral rate.

I think you are oversimplifying the concept of “spot” rates for leasing. Generally, tenants are very interested in powered shells available in the near-term and become less interested in ones available further into the future. This relative level of interest is reflected in what they are willing to pay in rent. Leases that are being signed and announced now are typically for sites available 12-18 months out, and they are being signed at the highest rates we have seen. But if you ask a hyperscaler about what they would commit to pay right now for a long-term lease for a site available in 2030+ (if they would even be interested now), they might offer to pay 7-8% YOC. At those levels, we would not commit to a lease and will wait if we have such a site available. The binding commitment we received here is for a lease starting 10 years from now at a rate in-line with today’s elevated market rates for powered shells available in the near-term from a very large and successful leading AI lab. This is a big deal and evidence of a long-term sustained demand environment in my opinion. I saw a few other questions along the lines of “Why sign now? Why not wait?” Presumably this logic is based on the idea that we should just wait 8.5 years until interest will be higher. My answer is that we have never seen interest at today’s elevated rates for a lease starting that far in the future and it provides an excellent projected IRR on our investment. Also, if we follow that advice, why should we ever sign a lease at all? Just keep waiting for infinitely higher lease rates. I don’t believe that is a winning strategy. Lastly, keep in mind that headline lease rates don’t tell the full story in an inflationary environment with fast-changing design and engineering standards. You need to consider other elements that can control your costs and financing risks. We are focused on maximizing a return on our investment while managing risks. (Note that this is also why revenue comparisons with neoclouds are somewhat irrelevant—they have a completely different cost and risk structure)

Without The Hustler (65 years old today), Paul Newman would never have won an Oscar for Best Actor. When The Hustler arrived at the 34th Academy Awards with nine nominations, Newman’s "Fast" Eddie Felson was hailed as a masterpiece. He won the BAFTA and critics’ prizes worldwide. But the Academy passed him over, giving Best Actor to Maximilian Schell for Judgment at Nuremberg. Throughout his career, Newman earned defining nominations for Cat on a Hot Tin Roof, Hud, Cool Hand Luke, Absence of Malice, and The Verdict, and lost every time. By the mid-1980s, the “Newman has never won” storyline had become an embarrassment for Hollywood and the Academy. Fast (Eddie)-forward 25 years: Newman pushes for a sequel, The Color of Money. Recruits the hottest director in town (Scorsese) and the biggest young star (Cruise), and gives the Academy a ready-made narrative. Because audiences and voters already had decades of attachment to Eddie Felson, Newman didn’t need to “introduce” the character again. In The Color of Money, Eddie is older, sober, weary, and mentoring Cruise’s cocky prodigy. The contrast between Eddie’s ferocity in The Hustler and his hard-earned wisdom in the sequel created a legacy the Academy couldn’t ignore: one performance spread across two films, 25 years apart. The Color of Money was a major critical and commercial success. The Academy, keenly aware of what they’d denied him for The Hustler (and so much else), overwhelmingly voted Newman the Oscar. The statue was awarded for The Color of Money, but it was earned at the pool tables of The Hustler.

@cullenroche with a dose of reality and why we've said all year rhat yields were going higher. You can't have nominal GDP between 6-8% and think a less than 5% 10-yr makes sense.

The best month of the year in a midterm year is October. The second best month of the year in a midterm year is November. Almost there.

In one of my streams I said this was a possibility. By fear mongering that this AI tech is to powerful and that they are the only ones that can use it's power responsibly. This will make them guardians of the super intelligence. They will develop the cures, they will create new technologies, solve everything. And maybe allow us to have access if we bend the knee to them. All the more reasons we need open source models so that everyone can compete equally. Not just two companies. And perhaps we need a law that states, companies making Super Intelligent AI cannot compete with traditional companies in all fields. But they will receive 1% in royalties from any company that uses their technology to come up with new cures, materials, or any other products that is sold to consumers and businesses. Just brainstorming out loud.

CNN Fear & Greed is near extreme fear and AAII bears soared jumped by 14% to 53%, the most bears in more than a year.

Wells Fargo initiates coverage on $WULF with an Overweight rating and $30 price target The firm has a favorable view of TeraWulf’s management track record and quality of its contracted + pipeline sites. Key Catalysts: • Initial Muskie Lease +400 MW or greater • NY expansion pathway • Equiped to meet/beat 250-500 MW annual target • Hawesville IG backstop + Morgantown regulatory approval The $30 price target is based on the banks NAV/share for both contracted + pipeline NOI: a ~$15/share contracted NAV and~$15/share of probability-weighted pipeline. “We also see a longer term pathway for WULF to generate ~$1.50 of AFFO/sh by 2030, which would equate to ~11x its current share price.”

Al Gore is back...and its not what you think: He's actually being reasonable on AI and AI/Datacenter energy use and corresponding emissions. Almost bullish even.....Actually a pretty good article "Gore doesn’t treat AI risk and AI’s climate potential as being in opposition. He cited a recent study from economist Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics projecting that AI applications aimed at efficiency and waste elimination could drive global emissions down by 6% to 9% per year starting next decade." Of all new electricity generation capacity added worldwide last year, 86% came from renewables, and in the U.S. specifically, that figure was even higher, at 91%

meanwhile Trump right now on hearing the hike news.

Let’s take a second and remind ourselves that $cifr @rftylerpage currently have 700 MW signed via Barber Lake, Black Pearl and Stingray. I previously mentioned 477 MW available at Odessa, Ulysses, and Reveille with another 1.1 GW today via Colchis and Stingray. I’m assuming that Stingray got dialed down to 100 MW from 200 MW requested and I have questions on whether the $nuai will take possession of the same PPA previously held by $cifr for 207 MW. Let’s assume to be safe Tyler has Ulysses, Reveille, Colchis and Stingray at his disposal for 200+70+1000+100=1,370 Assuming a PUE of 1.37, that’s 1 GW of IT load. Given the current market conditions of secured power scarcity, Tyler can safely sign those sites for 2.0m per MW NNN. That results in roughly 2B of stabilized NOI that at a 15x multiple has a EV of $30B and a cost of $12B, meaning there is $18B of equity value to create and the stock trades at just over $6B today. The existing 700 MW signed conservatively has $10 per share of fully diluted value and even as much as $12. So you’re basically paying $2B today for the potential of $18B tomorrow in my eyes with a team that is already delivering MW on time. Act accordingly.