★ 27+ yrs of stalking & talking Financial & Capital Markets in India ★ MoneyMan Investment Services Pvt. Ltd. ★ SEBI RA INH000025382 ★
Money Capital of India
Joined September 2017
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What's common between:
One of the best pension funds and the world's biggest Sovereign Fund?
Absolute wrong bets on the US Treasuries.
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What I Am Watching on My Terminal Right Now:
Three stress points will signal when the dam breaks:
The US 10-Year 5.35% Resistance: A sustained breakout will trigger forced rebalancing across global risk-parity funds.
FDIC Problem Bank List: Watching if troubled lenders increase as commercial real estate and bond losses intersect.
Sovereign De-Dollarization of Reserves: Tracking how many global pensions mimic Norway’s mandate to cut US Treasury allocations.
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There is an old rule in finance: "It’s not what you don’t know that kills you; it’s what you thought was safe."
For a decade, the consensus treated long-duration government paper as the risk-free anchor of portfolio safety.
Today, it is the primary engine of capital destruction.
Bookmark this thread and repost the first tweet.
And follow @MoneyManBala to get smarter about your Investments!
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MoneyMan Investments is a SEBI Registered Corporate Research Analyst with registration no. INH000025382 & BSE Enlistment No. 7017.
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'Live & Let Die' Market.
ek taraf 'Jio' aur doosri taraf 'Marne Do'!
#stockmarketcrash #StockMarketIndia #Nifty50 #stocks
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Don't feel happy about US 10 year Yields going below 5%.
Something deeper seems to be happening.
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What I Am Watching on My Terminal Right Now:
Three indicators will confirm the trap:
The TIPS Breakeven Spread: If 10-year TIPS breakeven widens while nominal yields fall, it confirms stagflation pricing.
High-Yield Credit Spreads (HY OAS): If junk debt spreads widen past 420 bps while Treasuries rally, a credit crunch is underway.
Transportation Indices (Dow Transports):Transports fail first when oil spikes and consumption slows.
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There is an old trading rule: "Bonds sniff out recessions long before equities wake up."
Rising stocks + Rising oil + Falling yields is the classic late-cycle signature of an economy headed into a stagflationary squeeze.
Do not be seduced by green equity screens fueled by mechanical flow.
When the world’s deepest bond market buys Treasuries while energy costs explode, capital is preparing for a storm.
Take your eyes off the Equity tape; Respect the Bond tape.
Bookmark this thread and repost the first tweet.
And follow @MoneyManBala to get smarter about your Investments!
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MoneyMan Investments is a SEBI Registered Corporate Research Analyst with registration no. INH000025382 & BSE Enlistment No. 7017.
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