Am I the only one who thinks the young lad Leopold got his pocket picked by Citadel who miraculously gets a steep discount and is the only one calling for a rate hike yesterday causing panic… grant it the leveraging was poor risk mgmt but.. just one day … his key holdings rip a roo. 😵‍💫

Rant of the day.. who the fuck cares about the indices when you have sector stocks heavily owned down 20-30%+ Deal with the reality.. the indices are broken and meaningless. When institutions have had a record trading year they will lower their beta and cruise to the end of the year. Risk on vs risk off trades.. high beta .. low beta and the indices do not matter. When South Korean government changes the rules around leveraged ETFs .. think about that. Has been a blood bath with margin calls and closing of accounts that led to that rule change.

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What naivety = amateurs this administration.. that Venezuelan and Gaza high starting to wear off big boy? DO NOT GET INVOLVED IN THE MIDDLE EAST .. now the world pays

The bloom is off the rose. Lower fuel prices masked the underlying inflation import as well as domestic. Well golly now we have higher prices at the pump. Clearly someone didn’t inform the admin that chaos theory really not a good idea when dealing with the Middle East. I pounded the table this is not Venezuela. Kuwait Iraq oil reductions and shut downs VERY BAD NEWS GLOBALLY. Our response dont worry Russian oil to the rescue 🛟

Khameni had a succession plan in place for weeks. His son who was been the shadow leader was the one who orchestrated the mass killing of protesters. He is set to step in. The millions of Shias rallying in outrage over Khameni’s death shows this is not Venezuela. Military generals quietly told DJT this might not be a good idea getting involved. But here we are.. US policy of regime change has always failed in the Middle East. When headlines that you bombed a girls school not good… Prayers to all the innocent lives that have and will be lost. 🙏🏻

Anyone find this eerily familiar when American soldiers are being told you will die a noble death in Iran conflict?

Will be trimming my $UCO .. bought the double bottom so lovely trade. You know the commodity rules. Buy when no one wants to buy. Am actually thinking we have seen a low in the crypto markets so in some $IBIT $ETHA $MSTU. Will look at $SOLT too

I continue to pound the table for over a year now overseas markets will outperform US markets for years to come. Commodities though volatile will be an important part of one’s portfolio. $GLD $SLV a must hold. I can actually see $SLV getting close to $1,000 in the coming years. I know crazy but the $GLD/ $SLV will continue to revert back to the historical mean and if I see $GLD much higher with the $DXY debasement well it’s mathematics.

Am really not that concerned in terms of the Iranian war with the markets mainly because history shows that it falls back to the economy stupid. Oil prices will be a key driver short term but that’s for another day. Where I continue to see the real risk to the markets is deregulation with a massive sugar high of leveraging and CapEx spending. $KRE price action showing the cracks. It’s all about capital preservation right now. Indices are useless indicators. We will see 10% unemployment sooner rather than later as AI gets more entrenched throughout the economy. We are purely a service economy which is in the crosshairs with staffing. That will be another tipping point.

Took some of my $SQQQ $FAZ $TECs $SDS hedges off.. with this level of fear.. time to let the market digest and run up a bit.. always watching to see what gets bought and the quality. New dirty word is CAPEX spending! Or maybe Tommy saying EVERY DAY the crypto low is in.. don’t worry.. he needs to 🤐 Now my boo Jensen saying buy SaaS stocks! Wouldn’t be surprised if there was a little assistance from the govt on the crypto side.. they wouldn’t do that would they? Nope of course not!

First thing I did pre market was tell my friends we were going lower and use the pop to buy puts 🧨

Solid Green Day for me.. hedged and in $RKLB $ASTS $VZ $RKT $VXX $KO had $MSTR $MU puts out of those and building longer dated $NVDA delta trades.. cheap cheap cheap.. I am very concerned because everyone is saying don’t worry lots of liquidity coming to the market.. Well when you have crypto margin calls crashing.. forced decoupling of supply chains .. CBs have debt to finance and you have private equity firms in the shitter liquidity leaves real fast. This Japanese election super important as well. 2026 will surprise many because they are use to linear moves.

So JPM was massively short.. and covered at the low on Friday.. hmmmm they have been fined before for manipulation but not with this administration so congrats to them.. Wonder if they are short cryptos too.

Question .. is QE already priced in and what happens if Warsh who has been a consistent hawk once elected actually is a hawk? Friday $SLV $GLD $BTC could be the start of a domino effect across asset classes as they re-weight. It has already happened in SaaS stocks. What’s to say the chip memory stocks aren’t next? $WDC $MU $SNDK Fridays price action definitely got my attention. These stocks could come down 25-30% and still look fine on the weekly and monthly charts. I maintain that will happen very soon. That is why I have hedges on. I hope I am wrong and my hedges become worthless puts. But looking at Friday .. if I didn’t have hedges on my portfolio hit would have been ugly because of my commodity and thematic baskets. Still up 7% YTD because of my hedging strategies. 🙏🏻

If you can not figure out why commodities are ripping.. and why I have pounded the table about a supercycle and why I have said WTF why would you pick a top in gold and silver .. ONE WORD … tariff.. when you no longer can rely upon a partner to act in good faith you go elsewhere.. Canada China deal was huge .. it becomes about those who have resources and needs them. Who will be reliable.. Go back and actually read about Smoot Hawley and the years after.. Déjà vu

Time to drop my 2026 investments ideas. Still in my thematic baskets.. Only real change for 2026 is I have increased my weightings in military spending .. overseas markets.. REiTS commodities and cryptos. Here’s some names am in.. Commodities $GLD $SLV $CPER $CCJ $ALB global defense $SHLD $DFEN $EUAD drone basket .. space $RKLB $ASTS .. global ex US $EWZ $ECH $VPL $EWG $BABA $EEM $EFA $EWJ Energy utilities $BE $IREN $NBIS $CEG mlps nuclear etc.. lots of REiTS .. semis still overweight $MU $SNDK $INTC $TSM and underweight $NVDA $AVGO $AMD etc .. preferred stocks.. .. defensive names $WMT $TGT $NVO $COST $HD $CELH $BTI $MO $UNH $LLY $CURE cryptos $IBIT $ETU $BMNU $MSTU and of course HEDGED.

1. Oil companies serve to pay nice dividends to their investors 2. Who is gonna fund this drill baby drill in Venezuela? 3. There is a reason $CVX is quiet. Looks like US govt will have to get into the oil business and subsidize this venture. For those who don’t know the definition of socialism.. this is it. On a side note Canada will increase sales to China and other Asian countries of their heavy crude through the TMX pipeline.