Social media tends to frame AI debate into two caricatures: (A) Skeptics who think LLMs are doomed and AI is a bunch of hype. (B) Fanatics who think we have all the ingredients and superintelligence is imminent. But if you read what leading researchers actually say (beyond the headlines), there’s a surprising amount of convergence: 1) The current paradigm is likely sufficient for massive economic and societal impact, even without further research breakthroughs. 2) More research breakthroughs are probably needed to achieve AGI/ASI. (Continual learning and sample efficiency are two examples that researchers commonly point to.) 3) We probably figure them out and get there within 20 years. @demishassabis said maybe in 5-10 years. @fchollet recently said about 5 years. @sama said ASI is possible in a few thousand days. @ylecun said about 10 years. @ilyasut said 5-20 years. @DarioAmodei is the most bullish, saying it's possible in 2 years though he also said it might take longer. None of them are saying ASI is a fantasy, or that it's probably 100+ years away. A lot of the disagreement is in what those breakthroughs will be and how quickly they will come. But all things considered, people in the field agree on a lot more than they disagree on.