MoExotic

15 Key Stats to Know Before Betting on the Week 5 NFL Slate 🏈 1. Michael Wilson has posted a ridiculous 42.6% first-read share and a 32.2% target share over the past two weeks. He now faces a Lions secondary that has been atrocious this season, ranking 27th in success rate and 29th in EPA. Additionally, the Lions are allowing the most receptions to opposing wide receivers this season. I like Michael Wilson to have a massive game in this matchup. 2. Without Christian Gonzalez last week, the Patriots played zone coverage on 71% of their defensive snaps. Heading into Week 5, they’re not only without Gonzo but will also be missing Carlton Davis. I expect the Patriots to operate in zone coverage on around 80% of their defensive snaps in this matchup, which sets up Brock Bowers for a massive game. Versus zone coverage this season, Bowers is averaging 2.25 YPRR with a 30.3% first-read share. Additionally, the Patriots should get Christian Barmore back, so I don’t expect the Raiders to be able to run the football efficiently. 3. Bhayshul Tuten last week recorded a season-high designed carry share (68%) and snap share (57.4%). Heading into Week 5, he’s set for another massive workload on the ground against an Eagles defense that has struggled against the run this season. Through four games, the Eagles’ rush defense ranks 28th in success rate, 23rd in EPA, and 24th in stuff percentage. With a likely favorable game script, Tuten is positioned to perform well. Additionally, on the season he’s averaging a ridiculous 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt. 4. Amon-Ra St. Brown gets a great matchup against a Cardinals secondary that has struggled this season. Through four games, the Cardinals’ passing defense ranks 30th in EPA and 1st in YPA allowed. Now let’s dive into the coverage matchup: versus two-high over the past two seasons, Amon-Ra is averaging 2.61 YPRR with a 0.32 TPRR. (The Cardinals are running two-high on 60.9% of their defensive snaps.) 5. The Packers’ offensive line played much better in Week 4, posting a 55.3% pass-block rate compared to their previous 18%, and they allowed just five pressures against an aggressive Todd Bowles defense. It also looks like veteran guard Kevin Zeitler is going to play this week, which should only help the line. Now let’s dive into their matchup against the Bears. The Bears’ defense has been super impressive through four games, ranking 4th in EPA per play and 13th in pressure rate. However, I’m still not a believer in this Bears defense—they own just a 35.2% pressure rate without blitzing, and their success rate ranks middle of the pack. Jordan Love has historically been better against man than zone, and the Bears are currently in man coverage at a 37.1% rate. With better protection, I expect this Packers offense to be able to move the football against the Bears’ defense. 6. Mike Macdonald’s defense has been dominant in stopping the run this season. Through four games, the Seahawks’ rush defense ranks 2nd in success rate, 5th in EPA, 7th in YPC allowed (3.64), and 6th in stuff percentage. Without Kyle Juszczyk, I don’t expect the 49ers’ rushing offense to have much success in this matchup. Instead, I expect Kyle Shanahan to mainly use CMC as a receiver in this game. Also, in three straight meetings against this same Seahawks defense, McCaffrey has yet to record a run over 15 yards. Even if Leonard Williams is out, I don’t see this Niners offense having much success running the football. 7. 70.5% of Brian Robinson Jr.’s carries this season have come on zone concepts. Why does that matter in this matchup? Versus zone concepts this season, the Ravens’ defense is allowing just 3.78 YPC with a 38% success rate allowed. With this game likely featuring a bleeding clock, I think it’s a good time to sell high on Brian Robinson Jr.’s usage. Additionally, I expect Bijan to be used more in this sort of matchup. 8. With Michael Pittman Jr. out, Steelers rookie WR Germie Bernard is set to have himself a day. Versus one-high this season (in a limited sample size), Bernard is averaging a 0.20 TPRR. The Colts’ secondary also hasn’t been great this season, ranking 22nd in EPA and 5th in YPA allowed. Additionally, from beat reports earlier this week, it seems like Germie Bernard has developed a good relationship with Aaron Rodgers. Here’s a quote from Germie himself: “He wants to build trust with you, so if you don’t know what you’re doing, you know you’re not gonna play, you’re not gonna get the ball, and you want to be perfect.... but it was a challenge and I studied and I knew the questions he asked and yeah, I was nervous, but I was also confident and know the playbook and the signals. I don’t want to let my QB down, so I’m going to show him the effort to earn his trust.” 9. Over the past two weeks, the Jets are blitzing opposing quarterbacks on 44% of their dropbacks. Denzel Boston’s TPRR drops from 0.20 to 0.14 and his YPRR drops from 2.63 to 1.95 versus the blitz this season. It also looks like there’s going to be rain in the forecast for this matchup, which sets up the Browns’ offense to rely more on Judkins. With the bad matchup and rain, I’d favor backing Concepcion over Boston in this game. 10. The Chargers are going to be without Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey is questionable, which sets up Tre Harris to have a massive day in this matchup. Now let’s dive into the coverage matchup. The Broncos have been running one-high at a 51.9% rate this season. Versus one-high this season, Tre Harris is averaging 2.88 YPRR with a 0.24 TPRR. With a defense that’s going to be without its top two corners, I like Tre Harris to dominate in this matchup. 11. Through four games, the Vikings are blitzing at the highest rate in the league (63.6%). Devaughn Vele (0.22) and Chris Olave (0.29) lead all Saints pass-catchers in TPRR versus the blitz. 12. Malik Washington has been excellent against man coverage this season, averaging 3.92 YPRR with a 0.25 TPRR. Cincinnati has run man coverage on 30.1% of their defensive snaps this season. In a likely trailing game script, Washington should have the most success of any Dolphins pass-catcher. 13. Xavier Hutchinson saw a season-low number of routes last week with the return of Nico Collins. Hutch ran just 10 routes, and with the emergence of Jaylin Noel, I see that trend continuing in this matchup. Additionally, Noel gets a fantastic matchup in this game against a Titans defense that runs a ton of Cover 4/6. Versus Cover 4/6 this season, Noel is averaging 2.3 YPRR. 14. With Sean Payton retaking play-calling duties, I’m expecting an emphasis on getting Jaylen Waddle the football in this matchup. Historically, Payton has done a good job of getting his best players the ball. Now let’s dive into the matchup: Waddle leads all Broncos wide receivers in first-read share (29.2%) and TPRR (0.24). Also, versus Cover 3/4 this season, Waddle is averaging 2.1 YPRR with a 0.27 TPRR. (The Chargers have run Cover 3/4 on 52.3% of their defensive snaps this season.) I like Jaylen to bounce back in a major way this week. 15. The Commanders are going to be without Stefon Diggs this week, and Terry McLaurin is a true game-time decision, which sets up Antonio Williams to have himself a day against a Giants secondary that ranks middle of the pack in EPA and success rate. Dennard Wilson’s defense has also primarily run Cover 1/3/4 from a coverage perspective this season. Versus those coverages this season, Antonio Williams is averaging 1.96 YPRR with a 0.28 TPRR. With Jayden Daniels returning from injury, Williams is set to be the Commanders’ leading receiver in this matchup. Thanks For Reading, Hopefully My Notes Help You ❤️