Misty Financial (@MistyFinancial) header
Misty Financial (@MistyFinancial) profile picture

MSTY, MSTR, BTC and income products backed by bitcoin.

worldwide
Joined May 2025
Photo by Misty Financial (@MistyFinancial)Photo by Misty Financial (@MistyFinancial)Photo by Misty Financial (@MistyFinancial)Photo by Misty Financial (@MistyFinancial)Photo by Misty Financial (@MistyFinancial)Photo by Misty Financial (@MistyFinancial)Photo by Misty Financial (@MistyFinancial)
I got into MSTY about a month ago. Been into BTC and MSTR for awhile but never really took the time to understand what MSTY was doing...and how amazing it is. When I started digging into I was first amazed by it's performance but also more importantly, unable to find the
9
3
1
77
10,373
$MSTY Performance for 6/16/25 Net Assets: $4.78B (+0.34% d/d, $21.5/share) Shares Outstanding: 225.95M (+0.07% d/d) Unrealized gain on holdings: +$25.5M (+$0.11/share and +$17M today) Realized daily gain: $0M Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share) Pretty quiet day with both $MSTR and $MSTY down slightly today. There was a $17M positive shift in unrealized gain today with the synthetic down $1.3M in value and the Short Calls gaining $18M today. No closing out of contracts today so no realized gains. Had a few minutes tonight and wanted to look back at some data on the 6/20 synthetic longs to understand the recent underperformance. A good mental model for $MSTY that I like and that I saw here on Twitter is that we get 6-8 big bets per year on each synthetic long when it’s held for roughly 6-8 weeks. Performance struggles when we miss one of these bets. For the 6/20 synthetic long, we started acquiring contracts at the 390 on 5/1/25 when $MSTR closed at $381.6 and the 420 on 5/12/25 when $MSTR closed at $404.90. The synthetic long eventually grew to ~98,000 contracts on the 390 and ~15,000 contracts on the 420, with a collective cost basis of $441M. Unfortunately, $MSTR traded up to $430 on 5/12/25 and $426 on 5/22/25 before dropping significantly to a low of $359 on 5/30/25. The last of the 6/20 synthetic was closed out on 6/12/25 with $MSTR at $379.74. Total loss on the 6/20 synthetic from both the 390 and 420 was $157M. Tough break of buying at the peak and needing to unload at the low. Model 👇
16
4
33
5,242
$MSTY Performance for 6/16/25 Net Assets: $4.78B (+0.34% d/d, $21.5/share) Shares Outstanding: 225.95M (+0.07% d/d) Unrealized gain on holdings: +$25.5M (+$0.11/share and +$17M today) Realized daily gain: $0M Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share) Pretty quiet day with both $MSTR and $MSTY down slightly today. There was a $17M positive shift in unrealized gain today with the synthetic down $1.3M in value and the Short Calls gaining $18M today. No closing out of contracts today so no realized gains. Had a few minutes tonight and wanted to look back at some data on the 6/20 synthetic longs to understand the recent underperformance. A good mental model for $MSTY that I like and that I saw here on Twitter is that we get 6-8 big bets per year on each synthetic long when it’s held for roughly 6-8 weeks. Performance struggles when we miss one of these bets. For the 6/20 synthetic long, we started acquiring contracts at the 390 on 5/1/25 when $MSTR closed at $381.6 and the 420 on 5/12/25 when $MSTR closed at $404.90. The synthetic long eventually grew to ~98,000 contracts on the 390 and ~15,000 contracts on the 420, with a collective cost basis of $441M. Unfortunately, $MSTR traded up to $430 on 5/12/25 and $426 on 5/22/25 before dropping significantly to a low of $359 on 5/30/25. The last of the 6/20 synthetic was closed out on 6/12/25 with $MSTR at $379.74. Total loss on the 6/20 synthetic from both the 390 and 420 was $157M. Tough break of buying at the peak and needing to unload at the low. Model 👇
1
6
2,215
$MSTY Performance for 6/16/25 Net Assets: $4.78B (+0.34% d/d, $21.5/share) Shares Outstanding: 225.95M (+0.07% d/d) Unrealized gain on holdings: +$25.5M (+$0.11/share and +$17M today) Realized daily gain: $0M Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share) Pretty quiet day with both $MSTR and $MSTY down slightly today. There was a $17M positive shift in unrealized gain today with the synthetic down $1.3M in value and the Short Calls gaining $18M today. No closing out of contracts today so no realized gains. Had a few minutes tonight and wanted to look back at some data on the 6/20 synthetic longs to understand the recent underperformance. A good mental model for $MSTY that I like and that I saw here on Twitter is that we get 6-8 big bets per year on each synthetic long when it’s held for roughly 6-8 weeks. Performance struggles when we miss one of these bets. For the 6/20 synthetic long, we started acquiring contracts at the 390 on 5/1/25 when $MSTR closed at $381.6 and the 420 on 5/12/25 when $MSTR closed at $404.90. The synthetic long eventually grew to ~98,000 contracts on the 390 and ~15,000 contracts on the 420, with a collective cost basis of $441M. Unfortunately, $MSTR traded up to $430 on 5/12/25 and $426 on 5/22/25 before dropping significantly to a low of $359 on 5/30/25. The last of the 6/20 synthetic was closed out on 6/12/25 with $MSTR at $379.74. Total loss on the 6/20 synthetic from both the 390 and 420 was $157M. Tough break of buying at the peak and needing to unload at the low. Model 👇
2
5
58
6,359
$MSTY Performance for 6/16/25 Net Assets: $4.78B (+0.34% d/d, $21.5/share) Shares Outstanding: 225.95M (+0.07% d/d) Unrealized gain on holdings: +$25.5M (+$0.11/share and +$17M today) Realized daily gain: $0M Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share) Pretty quiet day with both $MSTR and $MSTY down slightly today. There was a $17M positive shift in unrealized gain today with the synthetic down $1.3M in value and the Short Calls gaining $18M today. No closing out of contracts today so no realized gains. Had a few minutes tonight and wanted to look back at some data on the 6/20 synthetic longs to understand the recent underperformance. A good mental model for $MSTY that I like and that I saw here on Twitter is that we get 6-8 big bets per year on each synthetic long when it's held for roughly 6-8 weeks. Performance struggles when we miss one of these bets. For the 6/20 synthetic long, we started acquiring contracts at the 390 on 5/1/25 when $MSTR closed at $381.6 and the 420 on 5/12/25 when $MSTR closed at $404.90. The synthetic long eventually grew to ~98,000 contracts on the 390 and ~15,000 contracts on the 420, with a collective cost basis of $441M. Unfortunately, $MSTR traded up to $430 on 5/12/25 and $426 on 5/22/25 before dropping significantly to a low of $359 on 5/30/25. The last of the 6/20 synthetic was closed out on 6/12/25 with $MSTR at $379.74. Total loss on the 6/20 synthetic from both the 390 and 420 was $157M. Tough break of buying at the peak and needing to unload at the low. Model 👇
4
4
1
38
2,250
$MSTY Performance for 6/13/25 I’m back! Did you miss my updates? Was traveling for a few days and missed an update. Shout out to @RetireonDividen, @cryptoUwe and @BitcoinHornet for sending me the missing docs. Net Assets: $4.76B (+0.58% d/d, $21.10/share) Shares Outstanding: 225.8M (+0.1% d/d) Unrealized gain on holdings: +$8.4M (+$0.04/share and +$400k yesterday) Realized daily gain: +$25.8M (+$0.11/share) Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share) The synthetic long (7/11 370, 7/18 370 and 380 Calls and Short Puts) has an unrealized gain of $18M as of Friday. The Short Puts, with an unrealized gain of $54M, have lost about 2/3 of their gains since earlier in the week as $MSTR trended back to the low $380’s, right up against the strike prices of one leg of the synthetic long. The Long Calls have chopped the last few days, sitting at an unrealized loss of -$36M. Earlier in the week, the remaining ~25,000 contracts of the 6/20 synthetic long were closed out and rolled for a $17M realized loss. This week the weekly Short Calls expiring 6/13 generated $41.7M in realized gains, including $28M on Friday alone when the remaining contracts were closed out and rolled to the next week. We’re currently sitting at a realized loss this period of -$77M or -$0.34/share. It’s going to be tough to generate a strong dividend this period if $MSTR can’t break out of the chop between $370 and $390-ish, although the weekly hedge of the short calls has been generating strong gains (as designed when the $MSTR is down and/or flat). Need $MSTR to make a move up in the next two weeks. Model 👇
5
2
53
3,480
$MSTY Performance for 6/13/25 I’m back! Did you miss my updates? Was traveling for a few days and missed an update. Shout out to @RetireonDividen, @cryptoUwe and @BitcoinHornet for sending me the missing docs. Net Assets: $4.76B (+0.58% d/d, $21.10/share) Shares Outstanding: 225.8M (+0.1% d/d) Unrealized gain on holdings: +$8.4M (+$0.04/share and +$400k yesterday) Realized daily gain: +$25.8M (+$0.11/share) Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share) The synthetic long (7/11 370, 7/18 370 and 380 Calls and Short Puts) has an unrealized gain of $18M as of Friday. The Short Puts, with an unrealized gain of $54M, have lost about 2/3 of their gains since earlier in the week as $MSTR trended back to the low $380’s, right up against the strike prices of one leg of the synthetic long. The Long Calls have chopped the last few days, sitting at an unrealized loss of -$36M. Earlier in the week, the remaining ~25,000 contracts of the 6/20 synthetic long were closed out and rolled for a $17M realized loss. This week the weekly Short Calls expiring 6/13 generated $41.7M in realized gains, including $28M on Friday alone when the remaining contracts were closed out and rolled to the next week. We’re currently sitting at a realized loss this period of -$77M or -$0.34/share. It’s going to be tough to generate a strong dividend this period if $MSTR can’t break out of the chop between $370 and $390-ish, although the weekly hedge of the short calls has been generating strong gains (as designed when the $MSTR is down and/or flat). Need $MSTR to make a move up in the next two weeks. Model 👇
2
1
35
2,910
$MSTY Performance for 6/13/25 I’m back! Did you miss my updates? Was traveling for a few days and missed an update. Shout out to @RetireonDividen, @cryptoUwe and @BitcoinHornet for sending me the missing docs. Net Assets: $4.76B (+0.58% d/d, $21.10/share) Shares Outstanding: 225.8M (+0.1% d/d) Unrealized gain on holdings: +$8.4M (+$0.04/share and +$400k yesterday) Realized daily gain: +$25.8M (+$0.11/share) Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share) The synthetic long (7/11 370, 7/18 370 and 380 Calls and Short Puts) has an unrealized gain of $18M as of Friday. The Short Puts, with an unrealized gain of $54M, have lost about 2/3 of their gains since earlier in the week as $MSTR trended back to the low $380’s, right up against the strike prices of one leg of the synthetic long. The Long Calls have chopped the last few days, sitting at an unrealized loss of -$36M. Earlier in the week, the remaining ~25,000 contracts of the 6/20 synthetic long were closed out and rolled for a $17M realized loss. This week the weekly Short Calls expiring 6/13 generated $41.7M in realized gains, including $28M on Friday alone when the remaining contracts were closed out and rolled to the next week. We’re currently sitting at a realized loss this period of -$77M or -$0.34/share. It’s going to be tough to generate a strong dividend this period if $MSTR can’t break out of the chop between $370 and $390-ish, although the weekly hedge of the short calls has been generating strong gains (as designed when the $MSTR is down and/or flat). Need $MSTR to make a move up in the next two weeks. Model 👇
3
2
75
5,356
$MSTY Performance for 6/13/25 I’m back! Did you miss my updates? Was traveling for a few days and missed an update. Shout out to @RetireonDividen, @cryptoUwe and @BitcoinHornet for sending me the missing docs. Net Assets: $4.76B (+0.58% d/d, $21.10/share) Shares Outstanding: 225.8M (+0.1% d/d) Unrealized gain on holdings: +$8.4M (+$0.04/share and +$400k yesterday) Realized daily gain: +$25.8M (+$0.11/share) Realized loss this period: -$77M (-$0.34/share) The synthetic long (7/11 370, 7/18 370 and 380 Calls and Short Puts) has an unrealized gain of $18M as of Friday. The Short Puts, with an unrealized gain of $54M, have lost about 2/3 of their gains since earlier in the week as $MSTR trended back to the low $380’s, right up against the strike prices of one leg of the synthetic long. The Long Calls have chopped the last few days, sitting at an unrealized loss of -$36M. Earlier in the week, the remaining ~25,000 contracts of the 6/20 synthetic long were closed out and rolled for a $17M realized loss. This week the weekly Short Calls expiring 6/13 generated $41.7M in realized gains, including $28M on Friday alone when the remaining contracts were closed out and rolled to the next week. We’re currently sitting at a realized loss this period of -$77M or -$0.34/share. It’s going to be tough to generate a strong dividend this period if $MSTR can’t break out of the chop between $370 and $390-ish, although the weekly hedge of the short calls has been generating strong gains (as designed when the $MSTR is down and/or flat). Need $MSTR to make a move up in the next two weeks. Model 👇
7
5
112
6,118
Does anyone have the $MSTY trades and EOD holdings for Tuesday, June 10th? Missed getting it while I was traveling and need it to update the model. Any help would be appreciated.
2
19
2,718
Does anyone have the $MSTY trades and EOD holdings for Tuesday, June 10th? Missed getting it while I was traveling and need it to update the model. Any help would be appreciated.
2
7
1,637
$MSTY Performance for 6/9/25 Net Assets: $4.77B (+3.31% d/d, $21.17/share) Shares Outstanding: 225.3M (+0.4% d/d) Unrealized loss on holdings: +$48.9M (+$0.22/share and +$136M today) Realized daily gain: -$1.1M (-$0.01/share) Realized loss this period: -$100M (-$0.44/share) BIG day for $MSTR (+4.71%) and $MSTY (+3.01%) as $BTC pushed closer to all time highs. This led to a $203M swing in unrealized gains to $114M from the synthetic long. This was offset by a $67M increase in the unrealized loss of the short calls. This is the $MSTR pricing improvement that we needed to dig ourselves out of a substantial hole from the 6/20 synthetic, and hopefully set us up to realize some gains from the surging 7/11 and 7/18 synthetic longs. A small portion of the 6/20 synthetic long was closed today and rolled until 7/18 at a slight realized loss. There are still over 25k contracts of the 6/20 synthetic long remaining. Model 👇
5
1
33
2,809