OIL - BREAKING OUT? After 3 failed attempts to break its 18-year-old resistance, oil is now making another try. Breaking this level would most likely unleash a strong upside move given its importance and the catalyst it would represent for momentum chasers. Remember that oil (once adjusted for money supply) remains in the lower end of its long-term cycle, where the upside potential outpaces (by far) the downside risk. Add to this a strengthening monthly MACD and a RSI far from overbought, and you get the recipe for a highly asymmetric trade. Time will tell if we end the month with a major breakout. It may be time to (re)read the article below, which remains more than relevant today. #OOTT $XLE $USO $TTE

PETROBRAS - 23% HIGHER 3 weeks later, Petrobras is up 23% but its P/E barely move, due to higher expected earnings. Indeed, its P/E of 5.6 and dividend yield of 5% still classify it as a real value play. Meanwhile, its momentum is strengthening, with a diverging monthly MACD and moving averages converging upwards. $PBR $EWZ $XLE

OIL - ANOTHER TRIAL After 3 failed attempts to break its 18-year-old trend, oil is now ready for another trial. If successful, this could unleash the leg up oil needed to catch up with most other commodities, whose price have already substantially risen. Meanwhile, it is encouraging for bulls to see that: • Its monthly MACD is positive and widening. • Its monthly RSI is at 61, far from an overbought level. #OOTT $XLE $XOP $TTE

EMERGING MARKETS - AT A TURNING POINT After 15 years of underperformance, emerging markets have finally begun to outperform the S&P500 in 2025, as the EM-to-S&P500 ratio shows. Indeed, up 20% since this recent bottom, investors may wonder if they aren't coming late to the party. Speaking here about a decade-long movement, the bull market we now observe is likely still in its early stage. Indeed, with a ratio 80% below its former high, EMs remain good candidates for a catch up. While valuations are attractive, EMs have been consolidating for a few months relative to DMs, which is usual after such a strong move. The breakout of the ratio's 5-year moving average would definitively help unleash another leg up. I'd watch this level carefully. $EEM used as a proxy. $EWZ $KWEB