“Mostly stocks. Long-term investor (20+ yrs). Sharing frameworks, real positions & lessons. Not financial advice.”

Washington,USA
Joined March 2022
Michael Sullivan retweeted
the 10-year finally came below 5% for the first time in a month just took a trillion getting wiped out of equities to make it happen 😂
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
"Per UBS Evidence Lab, crude and product outflows exiting the Gulf of Oman collapsed to 9.1mb/d over the last few days, versus an average of 13.5mb/d last week and a steep drop from early October peaks of 17mb/d." "Combined crude and product liftings via the Strait of Hormuz and alternate bypass routes were pegged at 9.5mb/d last week, down sharply from recent highs of 16mb/d and the September baseline of 14mb/d." "While flows are almost certainly subject to upward revisions, they highlight an undeniable downtrend since the start of October." Ok.... "The Great" president Trump needs to hop on Truth Social ASAP, trash UBS, and drop a "BIG, BEAUTIFUL BOMB" straight onto Zurich! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!!!! #oott #Iran
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
Man I love the smell of industrial reality in the morning
Germany's Chancellor Merz: Germany and France reached an understanding on future policy toward the automotive industry. To put it very simply: The ban on combustion engines is now history.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
All these stocks hit new intra day all time highs at some point today Visa $V Palantir $PLTR Moderna $MRNA Petrobras $PBR GameStop $GME Dynatrace $DT Shell $SHEL XP $XP Frontline $FRO Petrobras $PBR.A GitLab $GTLB Hafnia $HAFN AbbVie $ABBV Exelixis $EXEL Okta $OKTA Datadog $DDOG Suncor Energy $SU Fortinet $FTNT Nutanix $NTNX NetApp $NTAP Atlassian $TEAM HF Sinclair $DINO Biogen $BIIB Hinge Health $HNGE Sasol $SSL Haemonetics $HAE BBB Foods $TBBB International Seaways $INSW RenaissanceRe $RNR Qualys $QLYS Arcosa $ACA Reinsurance Group of America $RGA F5 $FFIV Veon $VEON Banco Bradesco $BBDO
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
Chips/Memory CEO age: $AMD - Lisa Su - 56 yrs old $SKHY - Kwak Noh-jung - 60 yrs old $NVDA - Jensen Huang - 63 yrs old $INTC - Lip-Bu Tan - 66 yrs old $MU - Sanjay Mehrotra - 68 yrs old $TSM - Che-Chia Wei - 73 yrs old $AVGO - Hock Tan - 75 yrs old Didn't realize Lisa is that much younger than the crowd. AMD has a bright future ahead...
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
Do you understand yet?
We dont move up again until this red 100x cluster is cleared on Ethereum.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
Berkshire Hathaway was among the largest purchases disclosed in the President's latest financial filing. Now $BRK.B is breaking out 👀
BREAKING: President Trump's financial disclosure report for the most recent period was just released. Here is every stock / ETF he spent more than $1,000,000 buying in June: -Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B -Cintas Corp $CTAS -Visa $V -Mastercard $MA -International Treasury Bond ETF $IGOV -Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF $COMT -Industrials ETF $XLI -S&P 500 $SPY -Tech ETF $XLK -U.S. Treasury Bond ETF $GOVT
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
$25,000 week. It took me 2.5 years of losses to perfect my trading system. Now I make that back in a day. Never quit.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
A personal reflection on my investing journey, market lessons, and long-term framework for ETFs, technology stocks, and growth investing.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
IMPORTANT POST Our industry became too focused on protecting downside risk and inadequately focused on maximizing Total Returns to the upside. In my view, the entire purpose of our structured finance business model must be to maximize Total Returns for common equity shareholders. Our industry needs more amplification. Even at Strive, where we have the highest Amplification Ratio among Digital Credit issuers, when I look at the risk embedded in our capital structure relative to our amplification, I believe we have room to take it up another notch or two. Building a rocket ship is extraordinarily difficult and requires underwriting and taking real risk. The mission requires not blowing up, but you need an engine powerful enough to reach the moon. Based on Amplification Ratio alone, I view the risk of true issuer failure from over-amplification as very low across our industry today. Amplification Ratio obviously cannot capture every risk, including debt terms, covenants, maturity walls, liquidity constraints, and other structural risks. But controlling for those risks should give issuers significant confidence to take amplification materially higher. That is exactly what we have done at Strive, and I hope others increasingly copy it. I’ve written extensively about why Amplification Ratio will be the single most important driver of outright and relative Total Returns in a Bitcoin bull market. However, I believe incentives naturally push toward under-amplification, modest Bitcoin outperformance, and the safest possible path. My goal with this post is to light a fire and push our industry to think bigger, focus more aggressively on growth and Total Returns, and push the frontier of what our business models can achieve. We have a shared mission across the industry to grow Digital Credit from a nascent asset class into a massive global capital market. That requires trusted issuers, deep liquidity, disciplined execution, and investor confidence. That is where we all should work together, but make no mistake about what will crown the fastest horse in a Bitcoin bull market: the engine. Our mandate at Strive is to build the thing we actually want to own and recruit and retain exceptionally talented people who desire that risk and return opportunity and understand the business model that needs to be built. That mindset drove our execution in building a high Amplification Ratio, helped create strong liquidity, and is also why we are not satisfied with where we are. With Bitcoin under $100,000, our desire is to take Amplification Ratio higher from here. If the Bitcoin bull thesis is right, amplification will be the most important thing. If the Bitcoin thesis is wrong, a few hundred basis points of cost of capital won’t be the difference between success and failure. The model itself will have failed. I love capitalism. I love competition. I want more competition for the fastest horse. The next 10–15 years will be the Digital Gold Rush for Bitcoin. Let’s act like it.
From March ‘23 to the top, $MSTR did a 20X in Total Return while Bitcoin was a 5X. A 5X for $BTC from current levels would put it at $424K, which is just below our 50% CAGR base case through 2030. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes & you likely aren’t bullish enough.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
MARKET UPDATE 📈 The S&P 500 gained around $500 billion in market cap today, closing up 0.73%… Since September 16th, the S&P 500 has gained over $1.5 TRILLION in market cap, up 2.28% 😳 Mark your calendars, earnings season is almost here 👀
HAPPY FRIDAY! The S&P 500 has gained over $650 BILLION in market cap so far today, up 1% 📈
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
Global agriculture prices are rising rapidly: The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index surged +11.5% in Q3 2026, its largest quarterly increase since Q1 2022 and 4th-largest increase in 10 years. This index tracks 10 key agricultural commodities, including grains, sugar, dairy, meat, and vegetable oils. Corn and wheat prices in Chicago alone both surged +15.0%, while soybeans gained +13.0%. Over the last year, agricultural prices have now risen +20.0%. Global food inflation pressures are intensifying.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
Nasdaq 100 crossed 31,000 intraday. Quite a start to October. This long-term chart makes the climb look easy, but sitting through the pullbacks was anything but. Another reminder that a strong trend can last longer than people expect.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
🚨 $850 billion has been wiped out from gold and silver in the last 3.5 hours, despite Fed rate hike odds dropping to 21%.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
The Long Investor
@TheLongInvestOct 2
$BTC is up +50% since we called the bottom on July 13th from $57k to $86k We also said it was 'one of the strongest and healthiest looking charts in the market right now' This was while Citadel was playing games on Situational Awareness and upsetting the US Market. $ETH on the other hand is close to +100% gain when it reaches $3000
The Long Investor
@TheLongInvestJul 13
$BTC YOUR REMINDER That $BTC chart is one of the strongest and healthiest looking charts in the market right now Those that struggle to understand this have likely a lot to learn Wave 2 is where you start adding Especially when Wave 2 completes at the 0.618 Fib and the 200 WMA Wave 5 target is $350k in 2030 +560% Return from today. Save and share, you will be seeing this chart a lot.
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French government bond risk is surging toward EURO-CRISIS levels: The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields widened to 152 bps, its widest level since the euro-zone debt crisis. This comes as French yields rose to 4.94% while German yields fell to 3.42%. The move comes as concerns over France's fiscal position intensify, with the government facing pressure to control spending amid a divided political backdrop and energy-led inflation fears. Moreover, French CDS spreads have more than DOUBLED over the past month to their highest level in 13 years. The bond selloff is also changing ECB rate expectations, with traders now pricing just 2-3 rate hikes by the end of next year, down from 4 earlier this week. Meanwhile, higher borrowing costs are tightening financial conditions across already heavily indebted countries, raising concerns about their impact on economic growth and increasing the risk of contagion across euro-area bond markets. The pressure is also spilling into European equities, with the Euro Stoxx 50 falling -5% since mid-August. France's bond crisis is spreading across Europe.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
BREAKING: The US Dollar Index just hit its highest level in 17 months. Back in January, it was sitting at 95.5, a near 4-year low. It's up about 6.6% since that January low. Yesterday's PCE data showed inflation cooling. But the dollar is trading like the Fed plans to keep policy tight anyway.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
This graph is brutal.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
2024 may also be remembered as the year U.S. fiscal exuberance died. post-mortem 🧵 on how we got here. Right now, with the 10 year US Treasury yield trading well above 4.5% and the federal government spending roughly the equivalent of the defense budget just on interest expenses, a fairly broad-based consensus seems to be developing among economists that the fiscal path we’re on is in fact not a sustainable one, as Jay Powell pointed out 4 weeks ago. r<g logic no longer seems as compelling. The figure below plots the federal government's interest expense as a fraction of US GDP.
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Michael Sullivan retweeted
🇪🇺 Euro area PMIs defying oil and political gravity, partly driven by rising AI and defence spending. Yes, inflationary pressures are rising again, but PMI gauges look contained and risks of second-round effects remain limited.
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