Intersection of Markets x AI x Business Models. Thinking in systems about the future of work, markets and where value accrues. History is always an analogue.
London
Joined June 2015
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"The world is going to be more digital tomorrow, than it is today" @RaoulGMI
Every generation has companies that represent the prevailing technologies / network effects at the time. There's typically a 20-30 year time lag between when these cohorts are born and when these companies become some of the most valuable companies in the world. The internet has sped this up to about ~15-20 years (Tiktok as an example)
For Baby Boomers & Gen X, this was IBM, GE, Ford and McDonalds, Microsoft, Intel, AT&T (Enterprise tech, mass consumerism, personal computing etc) - ~25-30 year lag vs when boomers + gen x were born
For Milennials, this was Apple, Google, Meta, Netflix -merge of hardware (e.g smartphones), software (e.g app store) and the internet - ~20-25 year lag
What is this going to be for Gen Z and Gen Alpha? Mobile/technology-first, creator economy, decentralisation, AI-native etc. My working hypothesis is the likes of Coinbase, Tesla, Robinhood will be some of the most dominant / valuable companies in the world within the next 10-20 years. Crypto will form the backbone / infrastructure of this system (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana as the rails etc). This will only seek to accelerate because of network adoption / effects and the speed at which the internet can scale products and platforms. This projects out to early ~2030s for this to fully play out.
Very few people realise this, but we're still so so early. Greatest macro opportunity of our lifetime
Can't lie to you man...this market has been so resilent, given everything that's been thrown at it this year. Pretty incredible tbh.
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I don't care. This is true. if you're a young guy, get yourself in the gym. Fix your face. Be as hot as possible. Those who know, know🫡
"Nobody falls for the nerd" - True
"Most people feel extremely uncomfortable or threatened around the nerd" - not expolitative ladies who know when said nerd has money
I've seen this play out countless times in places like Marbella, St Tropez, Ibiza, Mykonos, Miami (yes, i've been around 🤣). The problem with male"nerds" is that most of them have never gotten attention from women when they were growing up...when they grow up, get some money (like a lot of money), women they could only wish of dreaming to speak to, start giving them attention on the regular. Sexual attention too. Most of these men, because they haven't had the experience of deciphering when a woman actually like them for who they are, mistaken the "attention" from being "genuinely wanted"
When you know ball with ladies, you know who is trying to fleece you and who actually likes you. The reality is that this plays out like all the time. Juang is just another male "victim" in a long line of victims.
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Michael retweeted
This is a huge deal. This will begin to massively reduce the need for launches. Instead, space infrastructure will be constructed remotely using 3d printing techniques and drawing on repurposed space debris. Space forges are being constructed so that key metals can be mined, refined, and put to work without ever having to return to Earth. The space economy will self-assemble rather than be constructed from Earth. Think of the next James Webb Telescope as something that was never on Earth in the first place.
BREAKING: A robot developed by Caltech and funded by DARPA has successfully built part of a structure in orbit without astronauts, marking what researchers describe as the first autonomous construction of a structure in space.
The experiment, called ASTRA, uses a robotic arm to retrieve individual structural tubes and connecting joints, then assemble them into sections of a larger framework directly in orbit.
Launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 in March, the system has spent approximately six months in space testing the technology.
The robot successfully constructed a new section of a truss structure, demonstrating that spacecraft could eventually assemble large structures from smaller components rather than launching them fully assembled.
The experiment is part of DARPA's NOM4D program, which aims to enable construction of enormous structures in orbit, potentially hundreds of meters or even kilometers across.
Potential applications include:
> Giant space telescopes
> Large satellite communications antennas
> Orbital solar power stations
>Future space infrastructure too large to fit inside conventional rockets
The demonstration did not complete the full planned antenna, but establishes an important proof of concept for autonomous orbital construction.
The technology could eventually allow the size of structures built in space to exceed the physical limits of the rockets used to launch their components.
Link to official report submitted by Caltech: sciencedaily.com/releases/20…
ALT Concept art showing how a NOM4D-inspired device might one day autonomously construct a truss structure in space. Credit: DARPA, Colie Wertz
Truth. This has always been and will always be the case. Few also understand that capitalism is one big allocating system. A lot of people get “allocated” long before they realise they’re being “allocated”. The best time to wake up was when you started your career. The second best time is now
I get asked for career advice regularly. I’ve recently updated my #1 piece of advice:
Optimize for joining a company with a high rate of learning and a culture of experimentation
Things are moving so quickly right now I mostly think this is the only thing that matters
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Michael retweeted
Rakuten and AST SpaceMobile Establish "Rakuten AST" Joint Venture to Build D2D Satellite Communications Network in Japan - businesswire.com/news/home/2…
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds
Michael retweeted
New awards. New mission updates. More progress toward a Moon Base.
We're advancing commercial lunar deliveries, a nuclear-powered rover, launch and orbital transfer services, and infrastructure to support a sustained human presence on the Moon: nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-a…
The framing of US foreign policy, by most people, on here is all wrong imo. The president, in this case Trump, should be viewed as a temporary operator in a permanent system. This idea that this is “Trumps war” fundamentally under appreciates the different components parts and players that underpin the structure of the system and therefore who is actually making the “decisions”. I obviously don’t know, but I don’t think Trump is a war monger. In fact, I don’t actually think he cares. His no.1 MO is to grift for the Trump brand. He wants to do his 2 years and just sail into the sunset, whilst screwing people over while doing it. Thats my opinion, not a fact.
Anyway, start with the framing that the US’s no.1 objective is to maintain the hegemony it established post WWII. How does it do that? Through establishing dominance in Money, Energy and Technology. There are different institutions & organised groups that touch upon each of these and at times will have conflicting or aligned interests e.g CENTCOM, FED, Wall Street, even Hollywood from a cultural perspective lol etc. Also, depending on the context different groups have more say than the other(s). When you begin to piece together these different component parts, you stop framing things within the confines of the current admin but start looking at things end to end at a systems level. COVID fundamentally accelerated everything and for far too long the US had been asleep at the wheel / complacent. Everything in this life is a function of sequencing and timing. I think we’re about to move into an extremely volatile period going into year end and quite frankly over the next couple of years.
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This. In '27 people should really begin to focus on how they can apply AI to their daily workflows, both on a personal level and at work. Phase 1 was the buildout. Phase 2 will be the application of the technology, as token efficiency / costs come down over time.
I delivered a workshop today at quite a large enterprise in the UK (the 3rd one i've done at this place) ~70 people, a lot of people still don't even know how to build basic workflow agents in Co-pilot studios or Gemini. As i've said countless times, the next 12-18 month, in enterprises, is going to be about process redesign, but from first principles. And why? Because a) there is now pressure (at the CFO level) to begin demonstrating value from all that AI spend, that goes beyond using AI just to summarise emails and b) cost optimisation is the no.1 thing that is front and center of most CEOs minds at the moment. Why? For a multitude of reasons, but to name a few... Rates are bidding, consumers on the lower K are being squeezed as a result of the cost of living. AI will most certainly be used as a lever (for real this time) to address costs at an enterprise level.
All of these things are interconnected. The number 1 question anyone should be asking themselves is what is the system currently trying to optimise for? and how does this flow / affect the decisions of different players in the system? Everything flows downstream of this. I've been bigging this guy up for the last year now because it is genuinely excellent framing for how you should approach life genuinely but Incentives + Constraints = Outcomes @awettermann (he must be getting sick of me) 🫡
The AI complex has real promise in the fundamentals and technology, but this doesn’t mean it translates into profits on a time horizon that sustains equity markets. This is exactly why CoreWeave is down 77% from the highs. It is the highest-risk stock with the greatest sensitivity to the credit risk in AI.
capitalflowsresearch.com/p/m…
God help us seriously man looool "We're beta testing in San Francisco" 😭😭😭😭😭😭😭
This quoted post is unavailable.
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Having an understanding of the price of money aka Interest Rates, will save you a lot of pain in your life. Everything is in some way connected to this. To the balance sheet of the company that you work for to the price you pay for everyday goods and services. One person's asset, is another person's liability. Liabilities can either be serviced by generating income or taking on/refinancing with further liabilities. This dynamic operates at every level of the economy from individuals, companies and sovereign states.
A very good read on this is Edward Chancellor - The Price of Time.
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Read the job description of this: morganstanley.eightfold.ai/c…
Assuming the world doesn't plunge into a recession next year, we're going to see A LOT more of this. Position accordingly. Infrastructure (Phase 1) > application (Phase 2)
👇 this should be your framing for the next few years. As compute continues to get commoditised, the cost to build, deploy and serve applications will continue to decrease. We’re in the very early innings of everything now converging around the application layer.
The latest Chief AI Officer appoints at banks (Barclays, HSBC etc) are largely all operators who also understand the e2e workflow vs deep technical expertise ie Data Scientists. Sequencing. More to follow with these companies… you’re going to see strategy refreshes > Build teams > teams Executing at scale - you’re also going to see hiring over the next 12 months converge around delivering the application layer (process redesigners, compliance, programme managers etc). What a time to be alive
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BTC boys have been bullposting for the past year (since '25 Sept top). Curve fitting any data point to suit their narrative. The definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results.
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Scarcity or abundance from the top flows through the system. What we're seeing with the riots across Europe is a function of decades of systemic decisions from unelected / elected leaders both in the private and public sector, driven by scarcity and the hoarding of capital. If Iran escalates, there is a major risk this is going to be 10x what it is now. You take it for granted till it's something you no choice but to notice, but Energy is at the heart of any functioning system, whether it'd be in biological ecosystems whereby the sun provides energy for photosysnthesis to occur in plants or whether it be in human systems where oil provides the energy for the means of production i.e transport, factories etc. Understand what the system is trying to optimise for, break it into it's component parts, the structures and players, what their incentives are, what their contraints are. All of this is a function of sequencing, duration and timing. And it genuinely super complex. If this materialises, the AI Capex trade becomes mega vulnerable (i think it is already tbh), bonds take a leg lower and we're all going to feel this in our mortgages, energy costs, food etc. Most crisis that we've had in the last 20 years have been largely focused on the Bits side...money printing addresses that. COVID and potentially what's about to take place is Iran is on the Atoms side. You cannot print food.
Any ground invasion of Iran… long XLE outright, long XLP/XLY (pair trade). This scenario probably accelerates the unwind of the AI capex trade e.g SMH. Personally think the SMH short trade is one of the best asymmetric trades out there atm, but I think it happens in the absence of a ground invasion of Iran. Latter is a rotational scenario vs a full scale deleveraging event (which is what the former is)
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Who would have known? With technology you can do more with less. Capital has been increasing its share of income vs labor since the 1980s. Where is most capital concentrated? Currently it’s in the technology sector. I’m not entirely sure what the FT is trying to show / prove here. Just unnecessary fear monger if and lazy analysis. If we start seeing ex tech decoupling, but yes we’re going to have a massive problem. Think we’re ways off that though
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Went to a gig last night. DJs were top tier. Passion beats hard work every single time. You can work hard in the absence of passion, but it almost always eventually catches up with you. Sometimes you’re so passionate about something, you forget you’re actually also doing the hard work. Someone who is passionate, but also disciplined 🔥
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There's some instiutional grade research on substack, but for a fraction of the price. Amazing stuff
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😉
Reddit's earnings call has exposed the new reality for thousands of companies.
"AI mode does not drive traffic. Not for us and not to anybody as far as I know. It used to be a traffic driver. Now it's not." - Reddit CEO.
The reality is that AI is fundamentally changing the way that humans access the internet.
Just 24 hours prior to this statement, Google's stock erased -$480 billion on the same issue: AI is disrupting the traditional search model.
For decades, the internet operated on a simple model. Search engines directed users to websites, and those websites monetized the traffic.
AI is destroying this business model, and it's happening at an accelerating pace.
The traditional model of internet traffic is rapidly becoming outdated.
The internet has entered a new era.
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