
Revenue, Token Rights, Newsletter @defillama
Joined September 2020
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"The next great crash will occur when we collectively realize that the institutions that we trusted to remove risk are actually the source of it."
- Volatility and the Allegory of the Prisoner's Dilemma, Artemis Capital
artemiscm.com/research-marke…
Kenny Jetski retweeted
if steve jobs saw you reserving 15% screen width for a single icon and then putting a left side arrow back button on the unreachable right side of the screen he would've personally taken you behind a dumpster and beat you with a metal pipe
If BTC drops and DEX volume falls, here's what you should watch:
Revenue that holds up has a non-crypto driver. Reserve yields, tokenized fund fee streams, pokemon market, select infra
Paxos, Collector Crypt & Courtyard, fomo, Chainlink and a few others grew rev as DEX volume fell
1/
The most sensitive revenues are wallets and trading apps. Examples are base app, meteora, jupiter, raydium, phantom, bonkfun & photon
When DEX volume rises, these categories grow revenue the fastest
The categories that held up best during the bear market actually flipped when DEX volume returned: Physical TCGs and Prediction Markets underperformed almost everything else
3/
kinda ironic that jez chooses capped payoffs given his stance on options
Just read this and after sitting with it for 15-20 minutes, these are my thoughts.
As an early staker and owner of paper:
- probably guarantees a decent return for stakers (as in the revenue is much more likely to come now)
- excitement of being a paper owner is gone now, there is no bear base or bull case, there is only a lifetime max upside of around .02 per paper at current net losses/gross loss ratio.
- only variable now is whether you get that in months or years.
- token transferability doesn’t really matter anyway. Each token represents a max revenue/token potential at any stage and will get discounted to current level
- only variable that affects max payout curve is netloss/gross loss ratio.
I think as an early paper staker there is little to be happy about here. What was looking like opening price for paper (.026) is now more than what you can make in lifetime revenues. What some early stakers (including myself) were excited about there being a right tail event of papertrade being extremely successful is now bust.
What it does tho is probably guarantees that you make around 2 cents per paper in lifetime revenues which was less certain. Its still a fantastic trade for most early users imo.
I think what stings the most for me is that now there is no way to speculate and gain from protocols success over the long term. Pay off remains same no matter papertrade makes 500 mil a year or 10 billion a year. If you are a paper bull, there is no way to express it.
Also now there should be absolutely 0 reason to farm the token. Should be a good test of where organic volumes settle at.
As a perp trader :
- each $1 lost in the casino earns paper which will recover around 22-30 cents of the $ lost paid out over months and years (depends on volume)
- assuming there are no ev+ farms in crypto perps left (variational right now and maybe even hyperliquid s3?) papertrade becomes the most ev+ venue to trade on
- this then ensures that the platform now has long term sustainability angle.
Good for customers of the house, bad for owners of the house who will get diluted to 0. Argument is that without customers house owners would anyway be sitting at 0 which is fair.
@izebel_eth i agree owning smaller slice of a bigger pie is better than large slice of smaller pie. But is there anyway to ensure the slice doesnt trend to 0 long term 😅
There is very little joy in playing limited upside games vs uncapped upside games.
As for myself - i think i would continue to trade organically on papertrade for eth and btc since its ev+ and shift most of my focus back on farming variational (tradfi + alts) for the time being.
September was a monster month for onchain options
Derive is 90% of premium volume
If Derive didn't exist, premium volume would still be down 70% YTD near the lows
Yield protocols, DEXs, and CDPs have some of the highest shares of revenue earned by token holders
Convex leads yield protocols in annualized fees, pump leads dexs, Sky leads CDPs
Created these models in a single prompt using LlamaAI's generative UI
Kenny Jetski retweeted
‘In our time no one has the conception of what is great. It is up to me to show them.’
Since the 10/10 launch, @papertrade_xyz earned more revenue than all of DeFi
Excluding stablecoin issuers, papertrade has out-earned everything for four straight days
10/10 was the highest ever day for holders revenue at $27.6m, $24m came from papertrade
DeFi funding and rounds completed both up 50% this week
$340m raised through 15 rounds - most weekly rounds since August





















