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Thank you for having me @CBSLosAngeles to speak about prediction market hedging!
Many speculate (or "bet", as you call it) on prediction markets, just like they do on any derivatives market. But the exchange structure harnesses that speculation for price discovery and enables risk management for individuals and businesses, big or small.
Over time, prediction markets will let people manage exposure to most things outside of our control. We're in the early innings of that. Incredibly excited to be part of building that future.
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...Good thing Kalshi verifies users identities and residency before they can place a trade.
A pretty important detail...
cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/p…
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m0nesy after his contract extension 🤣
🤝 Paid partnership
Thunderpick World Championship is wide open ⚡
Falcons lead the field, but Aurora, FURIA and Legacy are all in the hunt 👀
Traders predict a 41% chance Falcons lift the trophy. Can they deliver, or is an upset coming? 👇
🔗 polymarket.com/r/mFTgX4P
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Kalshi is strengthening anti-harassment policies to act against those who target athletes with abusive or threatening behavior tied to trading.
We are partnering with Signify Group, the global leader in online safety, to protect athletes and coaches from online abuse and threats.
sportico.com/business/sports…
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Mountain Bike San Francisco offers bike tours and rentals in Northern California.
Mark Baeder, the founder, has been leading private rides, full-day adventures, and corporate events for over 14 years in the Bay Area.
With El Niño underway, Northern California could see high monthly rainfall throughout the wet season, especially in November and December.
To protect himself against lower bookings for his business, Mark decided to hedge this risk on Kalshi by taking a $1K position on heavy rain in Napa from November 2026 through March 2027.
If El Niño doesn't produce heavy rains, his mountain bike business will continue to thrive and serve the community.
If El Niño does produce heavy rains, his mountain bike business can expect lower bookings, but his Kalshi position can help cover the difference.
Either way, Mark has protected his business against a rainy season.
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This article is why no one trusts the mainstream media, Reuters included.
Here’s a perfect example of how they rig the narrative BEFORE even asking the first question.
Start by barely explaining what prediction markets actually are, and then frame the entire discussion around war and gambling.
Ask loaded questions designed to make people view prediction markets negatively before they even understand how they work.
That’s how you manufacture a narrative.
Source: reuters.com/world/most-ameri…
How to make a poll say what you want:
Barely explain what prediction markets are.
“Do you like war?”
“Do you like betting on war?”
“These markets are gambling. Do you support gambling?”
“Prediction markets are horrible. Do you support prediction markets?”
Gather and publish the results.
Make sure to call it an unbiased poll.
Another episode of the agenda-driven journalism series. 🤡
reuters.com/world/most-ameri…
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How to make a poll say what you want:
Barely explain what prediction markets are.
“Do you like war?”
“Do you like betting on war?”
“These markets are gambling. Do you support gambling?”
“Prediction markets are horrible. Do you support prediction markets?”
Gather and publish the results.
Make sure to call it an unbiased poll.
Another episode of the agenda-driven journalism series. 🤡
reuters.com/world/most-ameri…
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I wish this was fake..
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Mauisnake wouldn’t be surprised if Falcons replace Karrigan before the PGL Singapore Major 🇸🇬👀
He points to NiKo making plans and settling the team in ESL’s broadcast comms, while acknowledging we don’t hear everything.
polymarket.com/r/xoo5Ddv
Traders predict an 8% chance of any Falcons roster change by December 31, 2026. 📉
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Only a matter of time 😭
🤝 Paid partnership
Mauisnake wouldn’t be surprised if Falcons replace Karrigan before the PGL Singapore Major 🇸🇬👀
He points to NiKo making plans and settling the team in ESL’s broadcast comms, while acknowledging we don’t hear everything.
polymarket.com/r/xoo5Ddv
Traders predict an 8% chance of any Falcons roster change by December 31, 2026. 📉
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"Doug Lorch appears unassuming - a retired IBM programmer with a gray beard, glasses, and a duck Facebook avatar, living quietly in Santa Barbara and driving a red Miata.
Doug has no special expertise in international affairs, but he has a healthy curiosity about what's happening. He reads the New York Times. He can find Kazakhstan on a map. So he volunteered for the Good Judgment Project. Once a day, for an hour or so, his dining room table became his forecasting center, where he opened his laptop, read the news, and tried to anticipate the fate of the world."
- Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
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"NFL says it’s about integrity of game"
Ultimately, responsibility is on the controlling entity (league, government, etc.) to police the integrity of their own events.
Also missing from this report are the previous sports betting scandals from long before PMs offered sports.
NFL tells Supreme Court prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by the states cnbc.com/2026/10/08/nfl-tell…
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WHERE IS S1MPLE?! 👀
🤝 Paid partnership
EPL playoffs are stacked 🔥
Falcons, Spirit, MOUZ, and FURIA are all on the same side of the bracket. 👀
Vitality lead the title odds at 44%. Who’s lifting the trophy in Katowice? 👇
🔗 polymarket.com/r/fQHAr3P
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Broky if he doesn't find another team soon 😭
🤝 Paid partnership
Broky back before 2027? 🐐
New colors or a FaZe return: which move makes the most sense?
poly.market/HxO6vND
Traders predict a 24% chance of broky joining an active CS2 roster by December 31, 2026. 👀
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can confirm knowing at least 3 ex-quants (T1 shops) making high 6 / low 7 figs trading prediction markets
paying very low taxes on gains (form llc to trade)
living at parents' penthouses (cuz its Manhattan no one has a basement)
among some of the smartest, most independently-minded, and interesting individuals I know
and also got plenty of time to hit the gym, spend time with family & friends, and go on dates as well
NY residents are collectively up more than $200 million in net profits on @Kalshi
the way I see it, traditional sports books charged egregious spreads for people to gamble
prediction markets allow competition to compress that spread, meaning people can bet for cheaper
and the profits from liquidity provision goes to ANYONE who's willing to warehouse risk smartly
instead of being concentrated in the hands a few corporations who ban anyone who's good
yes excessive gambling is bad
but as someone who trades perps, options, pred mkts, and memecoins for entertainment (and also perfectly knows how these markets work)
I don't think its the government's job to tell me, or any other adult, what they should do with their money
yes I know that some of my trades (especially fun options punts lmao) are negative expectancy,
but I actually don't think I can get such a powerful surge of dopamine anywhere else for cheaper
financial markets are competitive and efficient, and so risk is provided at the LOWEST possible cost
and as for the people who I am "giving" that edge to, I'd rather it be some dude my age building a trading bot than some multi-billion dollar cooperation
founders like @mansourtarek_ has allowed for ever greater opportunity for high-agency people, this is fundamentally a good thing
“They are in their parents’ basements making markets,” Fitzsimmons said. “That’s where some of the explosive growth is coming from.”
wsj.com/finance/kalshi-predi…
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Is it time to call it the Silicon Spread yet?
Kalshi intends to launch additional compute and power markets so people can trade the physical infrastructure behind AI. From a market perspective, compute and power are the two most important inputs to the AI revolution happening in the marketplace.
In other commodity markets we have already seen similar relationships exist: Gas & power trade through the spark spread, for instance. We are already witnessing AI infrastructure develop a similar relationship: power in, compute out, aka the Silicon Spread.
Kalshi is taking a methodical and comprehensive approach to building out the markets for compute and power:
(1) Price Discovery & hedging through Prediction Markets
(2) Continuous exposure management through Perpetual Futures
(3) Long Dated Exposure hedging through Dated Futures
AI infrastructure runs around the clock, and the risks don’t pause either. Weather, outages and grid constraints can move power markets significantly over a weekend. Kalshi, with our ability to both trade and clear 24/7 will provide the marketplace for round-the-clock trading and risl management of power and contract markets.
For more details, please read out insights in this research paper. kalshi.com/research/kalshi-r…
