Meredith Edlow

🌀 Wednesday video update on Hurricane #Rafael, now a Category 2 hurricane and strengthening as it approaches western #Cuba. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Rafael's future remains more uncertain than usual due to complex steering currents.

Invest #97L in the southern Caribbean is still in the initial formative stages. Mid-level rotation has become better defined within the area of convection north of Colombia. It is unclear whether a surface circulation or vort max is collocated with this mid-level rotation, but the overall low-level circulation pocket remains broad, and the system is likely tilted west to east with height. The future intensity of 97L has a wide range depending on whether a compact surface circulation is already developing or not. The high-resolution hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF, and HMON) using GFS boundary conditions are biased towards more vorticity beneath the convection, and show 97L intensifying into a solid hurricane between Jamaica and Cuba as it moves northwestward. Other models are much weaker than these due to a weaker initial representation of 97L. A @53rdWRS reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to 97L and will soon provide some answers about the system's current level of organization.