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Energy is the economy. In 2005 conventional oil production ceased to grow. It took 3 years to cause systemic failure. The resulting bailouts created money from nothing and provided the funding for the shale boom. It's finished growing so what's next. We live in interesting times.
Mark retweeted
Rig on way from MOU-5 to MOU-6 using the new road build at the side of the bridge that we had to have approval to build #PRD
Mark retweeted
Imported chemicals for new drilling strategy to mitigate formation damage arrive on site at MOU-6 on schedule #PRD
Shell wrote down Namibia last year.
Merlin-1X just made them look wrong.
The 10th well in PEL 39 delivered the best subsurface results on the block to date.
Good reservoir, Light oil, Limited gas.
The cleanest result Shell, QatarEnergy and NAMCOR have seen.
Earlier wells raised reservoir quality questions.
Merlin-1X answers them.
QatarEnergy has been building something significant here.
4 licenses.
34,000 km² of Orange Basin acreage.
5 discoveries Graff, La Rona, Jonker, Venus, now Merlin. This is a systematic position in what analysts are calling the next Guyana.
Guyana: first discovery to 900,000 b/d in 7 years. Phased FPSOs. GDP quadrupled.
Namibia: same deepwater geology.
Same light oil.
First oil potentially late 2020s if appraisal confirms scale.
Namibia is a long-cycle play.
But QatarEnergy is already there and Merlin-1X just made the case a lot stronger.
Mark retweeted
British Motor Corp, owners of the Mini, refused to donate any cars for "The Italian Job" (1969). The chief of Fiat Motors offered to donate all of the cars needed, including Fiat 500s in place of the Minis. Peter Collinson, the director of the movie decided that, as it was a very British movie, the cars should be British Minis.
Fiat still donated scores of cars for filming, as well as the factory grounds. The authorities refused to close the roads, but the Italian Mafia stepped in and shut whole sections of Turin down for filming. The traffic jams in this movie are real, as are people's actions during them.
(Source: IMDb)
P.S: On this day, 56 years ago, "The Italian Job" (1969) premiered in London, UK.
Mark retweeted
Zenith Energy CEO Andrea Cattaneo discusses last week's ICSID arbitration in Paris and updates the company's solar strategy #ZEN #ZENA
youtube.com/watch?v=3qJQzRBn…
Mark retweeted
#ZEN #ZENA An excellent week in Paris with Prof. Thomas Clay, Charles Michel, Julie Spinelli, Ben Juratowitch, Matthieu Gregoire, and Simon Le Wita. We are confident in our legal position, and following proceedings that clearly demonstrated the Tunisian authorities’ arbitrary conduct, we have full confidence in ICSID recognising the merit of the claims.
Mark retweeted
Zenith Energy CEO Andrea Cattaneo explains key milestones in Italy uranium development and the final hearing of the ICSID arbitration #ZEN #ZENA
▶️ Watch the interview youtube.com/watch?v=FzZXSwQl…
Mark retweeted
Saudi exports are coming in below expectations—~4 mb/d and slipping.
There is no positive narrative that changes that harsh reality of flows.
Let's stop arguing about politics because an runaway train is approaching fast
Criminal charges filed by Zenith against Cecilia Carrara in Paris...
Police are now investigation the ICC2 arbitration chair for corruption + breach of trust.
That’s a serious escalation.
linforme.com/energie/article…
Mark retweeted
Wildcat shareholders vote overwhelmingly (99%) to convert company into a GOLD ORE processing company listed on AQSE. Details in RNS link in previous tweet. #wcat #gold
share.google/9p73tdKemOhQV8b…
Mark retweeted
Every country in Asia is running the same clock right now.
They just have very different numbers.
Japan: 254 days. The most prepared nation on earth. Built those reserves after being embargoed in 1973, a humiliation so severe they spent the next 50 years ensuring it could never happen again. Refiners are asking to open them. The government said not yet.
China: approximately 10 days before domestic operations face real constraints. Already halted diesel exports to protect what it has.
India: Gas cuts to industry of 10 to 30% already implemented. Not projected. Implemented. Today.
South Korea: 1.6 million barrels per day through Hormuz. That pipeline is now air.
Japan has three weeks of LNG inventories.
Pakistan: no strategic reserve.
Bangladesh: no strategic reserve.
No buffer. No option. No plan B.
This is the thing the aggregate numbers obscure. When analysts say Asia faces disruption, they are averaging 254 days of Japanese preparedness with zero days of Pakistani preparedness and calling it a regional crisis of moderate concern.
That is not one crisis. That is twelve different crises at twelve different velocities hitting simultaneously.
The countries with reserves will deploy them in sequence, each release sending a price signal that accelerates the clock for the countries beneath them on the buffer ladder. Japan releases. Prices drop temporarily. Then the release ends. Prices resume. South Korea releases. Same pattern. Then India. Then nobody is left with a buffer and the war is still running.
That is the cascade mechanism. And it has a name in energy economics.
It is called strategic reserve depletion under sustained supply shock. The last time it happened at this scale was 1973. That ended with the global recession of 1974 and a complete restructuring of Western energy policy.
Japan built 254 days of reserves because of what happened in 1973.
On day seven of this war, they are already being asked to open them.
The number that should terrify every energy desk in the world is not 254.
It is seven.
open.substack.com/pub/shanak…
Mark retweeted
We’re making good progress on preparations to drill SC-3 appraisal well, that in a success case & subject to regulatory approval can be put on production within a relatively short time framework. Publication of ITR, based on US$60/bo, is timely given current oil price spike & prospect of continuing conflict within key area contributing to global hydrocarbon production
-Company Update- @PredatorOilGas Technical Report for Cory Moruga onshore🇹🇹
-2P resources 8.73 MM bls
-Project economics based on US$60/bo
-SC-3 drilling plans
-BON-20 well programme
-Programme to increase production coinciding with oil price spike
londonstockexchange.com/news…
#PRD
Mark retweeted
QATARENERGY - TO STOP PRODUCTION OF LNG DUE TO MILITARY ATTACKS ON OPERATING FACILITIES IN RAS LAFFAN INDUSTRIAL CITY AND MESAIEED INDUSTRIAL CITY
Mark retweeted
Highlights from my testimony to the House of Commons’ Standing Committee on Natural Resources - opening statement
Mark retweeted
Big oil Merger Alert 🚨
#TotalEnergies and #repsol are reshaping the basin by merging their British upstream assets into NEO NEXT+ instantly creating the UK’s largest independent producer. With TotalEnergies (47.5%), HitecVision (28.875%), and repsol UK (23.625%), the new entity brings together a powerhouse portfolio including Elgin/Franklin, Mariner, Penguins, Culzean, and Alwyn North.
By 2026, production is set to exceed 250,000 boe/d, pushing NEO NEXT+ to the top of the independent rankings. Scale is the real advantage here: lower unit costs, stronger operational resilience, and a smarter spread of decommissioning liabilities across a broader asset base.
The message is clear. In a mature, highly taxed, capital-intensive basin, size now equals survival. Consolidation isn’t optional it’s strategic. But as operators grow leaner and more efficient, the UK’s future tax take could come under pressure as losses are optimised and cash flows tightened.
This deal marks a turning point for the North Sea:
fewer players, bigger systems, and ruthless capital discipline.
#oott
Mark retweeted
Permian tight oil production is officially rolling over.
Rigs down 29%
Wells completed per month down 20%
Actual production now declining YoY (3-month moving avg)After years of relentless growth, the U.S. shale engine is slowing just as global demand keeps rising.
Peak Permian? The data is starting to say yes.
I've just finished a full investment thesis on exactly this opportunity 🚨The $1B Oil Duopoly Trading at Half Price Inside the Offshore Niche Nobody's Watching. Have a look here: open.substack.com/pub/themer…
#oott
