Economist @TheIFS working on healthcare, public spending and public sector productivity
Joined September 2021
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I have built a new @TheIFS online tool that allows you to examine - for the first time - how much funding each area in England received for key public services (inc. NHS & local govt.) and how that compares to estimated spending needs – do check it out!
ifs.org.uk/calculators/how-m…
📊 We have produced a new online tool, funded by @HealthFdn, that allows you to explore the funding and need for public services across England⬇️
ifs.org.uk/calculators/how-m…
Max Warner retweeted
Higher inflation and slowing spending growth pose challenges for public services over the next few years.
Rather than topping up spending totals, could the Chancellor bank on improvements in public sector productivity - getting the same public service performance with less £?
Max Warner retweeted
Really pleased to make my debut on @TheIFS podcast with @HelenMiller_IFS and @beeboileau. We get into the huge uncertainty around the OBR forecast, why the real story is the pressure on public spending, and even manage to sneak in a discussion on PuFins (not the birds!)
NEW PODCAST: Is the Chancellor’s spending plan credible?
🎙️ With 13 days to go, @HelenMiller_IFS, @beeboileau and @joaosp_sousa examine the impacts that higher inflation, rising borrowing costs, and the conflict in the Middle East will have on John Healey's first Budget ⬇️
Max Warner retweeted
Thank you to everyone who attended our IFS Green Budget 2026 launch event today, funded by @NuffieldFound in association with @BarclaysCIB.
IFS researchers, Jack Meaning, and @Gus_ODonnell provided analysis of the challenges and trade-offs facing the Chancellor.
I really enjoyed talking to @TalksDamien and Timeyin about the current state of the NHS on their Making Money podcast. You can listen here: youtube.com/watch?v=AafgXpWu…
Max Warner retweeted
Public service spending is rising, but there are increasing pressures on existing plans, spending growth is set to slow sharply and the govt may have ambitions to spend more in some areas.
Our chapter examines the Chancellor’s choices at the Budget: ifs.org.uk/publications/publ…
Max Warner retweeted
If the government also wanted to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, this could cost £11bn in 2030–31.
The government does not have to top up budgets. But keeping spending totals unchanged would mean scaling back ambitions or accepting a squeeze on some services.
ALT Chart shows illustrative scenario for departmental top-ups in 2030–31. Title states: "Choosing to offset inflation, avoid cuts elsewhere and fund higher defence spending could require a £35 billion top-up to departmental budgets."
Max Warner retweeted
NEW: The Chancellor’s fiscal ‘headroom’ could be larger than many expect, but spending pressures will be a key challenge for John Healey at the Budget.
🧵 Here are the main findings from our 2026 IFS Green Budget, funded by @NuffieldFound in association with @BarclaysCIB:
Max Warner retweeted
Spending pressures aren’t getting enough attention. Just the increase in expected inflation since March will effectively wipe £15bn (!) off the real terms value of public service budgets in 2030-31
Overall pressures could easily top £35 billion
Max Warner retweeted
Final reports of @theIFS annual Green Budget now out!
The punchline: the economic situation has worsened since spring and the main challenge will come from inflation eroding departments’ budgets & squeezing public services rather than falls in ‘headroom’
ifs.org.uk/news/spending-pre…
Max Warner retweeted
“If the Chancellor simply pencils in implicit cuts that he knows he would never be willing to deliver, his plans to cut borrowing – and meet the fiscal rules – won’t be realistic.”
@HelenMiller_IFS outlines John Healey's choices as part of the IFS Green Budget 2026, out today.
Max Warner retweeted
Like my boss, I'm getting frustrated at misinformation about triple-lock reforms.
Pensions will still keep pace with inflation-year-to-year and long-term growth in earnings.
They just won't rachet up when inflation & earnings are volatile.
This makes things fitter for future.
"The new triple lock is not going to put pensioners into poverty. Pensions will still rise in line with average earnings."
🎙️ @HelenMiller_IFS explains how the new triple lock will work in our latest podcast: has the triple lock been fixed?
Max Warner retweeted
I've spent 15 years thinking about the triple lock @TheIFS. Given what the PM said, here's how the reformed triple lock will work. Thread incoming.
Max Warner retweeted
NEW: Electricity prices in the UK are among the highest in the G7.
Why is this? And what can the government do about it?
Our new IFS Green Budget chapter explains: [THREAD] ⬇️
ALT Chart shows evolution of domestic energy prices in G7 countries since 1990. Title states: "Domestic energy prices in the UK are among the highest in the G7."
Max Warner retweeted
NEW: People with different levels of disability get the same amount of Personal Independence Payment (PIP).
Someone who can't wash and needs help dressing could get £5,960 a year – the same as someone who can't wash, dress, talk or read.
THREAD on our new Green Budget chapter:
ALT Chart shows distribution of claimants’ PIP points for the daily living PIP component. Title states: "Everyone scoring at least 12 points in their Personal Independence Payment (PIP) daily living assessment gets the same amount, despite some having much higher levels of assessed disability."
Max Warner retweeted
NEW: The English and Welsh justice system is under strain. But more funding alone won't fix the system’s problems.
Our new Transforming Justice report, funded by @nuffieldfound, examines the resources pressures facing the system:
[THREAD]
Max Warner retweeted
Our Director Madeleine Sumption joins @HelenMiller_IFS and @MaxWarnerIFS to discuss how immigration affects the public finances, and what falling net migration could mean for the UK economy. Check it out 👉 ifs.org.uk/articles/how-does…
Max Warner retweeted
NEW PODCAST: How does immigration affect the public finances?
🎙️@HelenMiller_IFS, @M_Sumption, and @MaxWarnerIFS sit down to discuss the impact of migration on the economy and the public finances ⬇️
We have a new report out today taking a deep dive into how migration and its fiscal impacts feed through the OBR’s public finance forecast. A short thread on why this matters [1/9]
NEW: Migration and the public finance forecast
In our first IFS Green Budget 2026 chapter, funded by @NuffieldFound and @BarclaysUK, we look at the ways migration feeds into the public finances, and how it's accounted for in the OBR public finance forecast.
We make a number of recommendations that we think could improve the transparency of the OBR process, and in some cases, its accuracy. It’s a complex and nuanced topic, so I highly recommend reading the full report if you are interested. ifs.org.uk/publications/migr… [8/9]
This is the first chapter we have published from this year’s IFS Green Budget, funded by @NuffieldFound and in association with Barclays. We will have lots more interesting chapters published in the coming weeks! [9/9]