🇺🇸 US crude stocks just dropped 8.6M barrels in one week. Commercial inventories fell to 415.6M bbl in the week to 9 Oct. The SPR was unchanged at 283M bbl, still close to its lowest since 1982. Three things hit at the same time: 🔹 Imports fell 790k b/d to 6.05M b/d 🔹 Hurricane Isaias cut output by 300k b/d to 13.68M b/d 🔹 Exports stayed heavy at 4.57M b/d The US is now one of the few big suppliers that can ship freely while Hormuz flows run far below normal. Every barrel exported at these prices is a barrel that doesn’t refill US tanks. There is still a buffer, with commercial stocks 3% above the five-year average. Isaias output comes back this week. Imports and exports will decide whether this was a one-off or the start of a trend. Source: EIA

🇨🇳 China’s supertanker queue hits a 7 month high 96 supertankers are signalling 🇨🇳 China as their next destination within 90 days, 12 more than last week. That is the highest since 27 February, the day before the war began. 🚢 Ships are following the barrels. Hormuz flows are close to prewar levels again and more than 40% of the world’s 850 supertankers are now in or near the Gulf, per Signal Ocean. 📉 The Atlantic is paying for it. Empty supertankers heading to Atlantic ports have halved in a month and most US to Asia deals for November are moving to smaller ships. ⚠️ These are signalled destinations, not loadings. Source: Bloomberg Don’t miss my latest analysis 👇 themerchantsnews.substack.co…

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia is cutting its oil price to Asia to keep buyers coming back. Aramco set November Arab Light for Asia at $5 a barrel below the Oman/Dubai average. That's a $3 cut from October and the widest discount since June 2020. Heavier grades were cut by $5. The market expected the opposite. A Reuters survey had forecast a rise of up to $5. Europe is moving the other way. Aramco raised prices for northwest Europe and the Mediterranean by $3, and left US prices unchanged. The reason is freight. A VLCC from the Gulf to 🇨🇳China costs about $1.2M a day on time charter, against $80,000 a year ago. Asian refiners say the cut is meant to cover that, plus delays at Egypt's Sidi Kerir terminal, where some Saudi cargoes now load. Asian buyers have choices: US, Iraqi and Russian crude, and Chinese refiners that have already stopped paying up. Europe has banned Russian barrels and has fewer alternatives. So Aramco discounts where it has competition and charges more where it has leverage. This protects market share, and it shows how small the discount is next to the cost of shipping. At $1.2M a day, freight to Asia runs around $30 a barrel, so a $3 to $5 cut covers only a slice. The "six-year low" is the discount to the benchmark, not the price itself. Oman and Dubai have risen, so Asian buyers still pay far more than before the war. If Hormuz traffic normalises and freight falls, will Aramco take the discount back? Source: Reuters, Saudi Aramco

ConocoPhillips signed a 20-year deal to buy 1 mtpa of LNG from Venture Global, with deliveries from 2030 to 2050. Conoco is hedging its Qatar bet with Louisiana gas. Venture Global runs 3 🇺🇸Louisiana projects: Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines and CP2. It claims more than 100 mtpa across production, construction and development. Conoco is also one of 🇶🇦Qatar's biggest LNG partners, with stakes in Qatari trains and the North Field expansion. That's the exposure the war has hit. 1 mtpa is small for Conoco, but the message is clear. Even Qatar's own partners now want gas that doesn't have to sail through Hormuz. Conoco is also buying from a seller with a disputed record. Shell and BP took Venture Global to arbitration over delayed Calcasieu Pass cargoes. How many more Qatar partners will quietly buy American backup before 2030? Source: Reuters, Venture Global

🇨🇳China uses more electricity than the next 6 countries combined. 10,564 TWh in 2025...= 2.3x 🇺🇸 US at 4,536. 🇮🇳India is 3rd at 2,083, then 🇷🇺Russia at 1,176 and 🇯🇵Japan at 1,030. Add 🇧🇷Brazil and 🇨🇦Canada and the 6 together reach 10,233. Still short of China. Electricity is the real ceiling on AI and heavy industry. Data centers, EVs, smelters and factories all end up as kilowatt-hours, and China has built the biggest grid to feed them. The AI race runs through the power grid. Whoever adds terawatt-hours fastest sets the pace, and right now that's Beijing. 🇩🇪Germany at 520 and 🇫🇷France at 477, Europe's two biggest users, sit at the bottom of the top 10.