AI experts largely agree about which policies would most reduce catastrophic AI risk. The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP) brings together forecasts from a representative group of over 250 experts that policymakers look to when considering the future of AI: computer scientists, industry figures, top economists, policy experts, and AI risk experts. We asked panelists to forecast (1) how a menu of policies would affect AI risk; (2) which policies they each support; and (3) which policies they think will be implemented by 2030. Key findings: • Despite disagreeing on the level of AI risk, respondents broadly agree on policy • Respondents believe government policy can substantially reduce catastrophic AI risk • The most supported policy of those we asked about was the creation of an international body, including the US and China as members, with pre-release authorization power over frontier models • Some US-only policies are forecast to reduce catastrophic AI risk, but not as much as bilateral policies involving the US and China • Experts strongly oppose federal preemption and think it would increase AI risk • The policies experts expect to reduce risk the most are those they think are least likely to actually be implemented 🧵 More, with key insights below: