If anything $SIVE is extremely early at ~$1.1B and I think it should easily be $2B+ today. They’re the bleeding edge of CPO/1.6T lasers mapping to tons of hyperscalers while all your existing laser companies are in the tens of billions. I think it’s the next $LITE.

My AI predictions. In the next 1 to 3 years, Open AI or Anthropic, or both, fail / get acquired for a fraction of their current valuations. Microsoft, Google or a developer tooling company with access to lots of developers and source code like Sonar or JetBrains wins AI in software engineering. Probably with smaller, local, specialised models. Other domain specific companies spring up to win domains such as mathematics, legal, writing, etc. TL/DR: The technology isn’t going away, but the financial bubble will burst. What do you think?

Learning about a company today: $SIVE. One of the optical names I’ve spent more time on. Servers move electrical signals. Fiber runs light. Optical modules do the conversion in between. Sivers sits further upstream — they make the InP lasers that actually generate the light. As AI clusters move from 800G to 1.6T and 3.2T, bandwidth keeps going up, and the requirements on laser power, efficiency, and stability go up with it. Sivers is already working on 70mW, 100mW, 200mW DFB lasers and laser arrays. That puts them in a position to supply pluggable, NPO, and CPO. That’s the part I find interesting about their setup. You don’t have to bet which optical architecture wins. As long as AI networking keeps scaling, the light source layer has to improve. On execution, the key project right now is with Jabil. They’re developing a 1.6T LRO module using Sivers DFB lasers. If that line gets traction, the business model changes. A big chunk of revenue used to come from NRE — customers paying them to do development work. They’re now trying to shift more toward product revenue. You can see it in the numbers if you look at the reports. Q2 revenue was only SEK 53.8M, so the top line still looks weak. But product revenue grew 18% year-over-year at constant currency. Opportunity pipeline is now at $1.2B, up 268%. They’ve also announced $30M to expand the Glasgow InP fab, aiming for over 100 million CW DFB lasers per year by Q4 2027. For a company this size, scaling capacity that aggressively suggests management is preparing for real AI optical volume. The risk is obvious — if orders don’t show up, that capacity turns into cost. Debt is also worth watching, especially with the cloud spending questions floating around. They did finish a financing round this year: the $12M convertible converted, and the remaining $5M term loan has been paid off. Near-term, the main question has shifted from survival to actually selling product. Market cap is around SEK 7.8B right now. TTM revenue is about SEK 278M, so roughly 28x sales. In the optical packaging space, worth putting this on the same watchlist as Marvell. Just my view.

Morgan Stanley says the U.S. stock sell-off may be nearing its end. Strategist Mike Wilson says investors should get ready to buy the dip, as the three-month correction enters its final stages. It comes after the Russell 2000 entered correction territory last week.

$LITE CEO interview on demand, counterparty + financing risk: - "CFO of $GOOGL came on and reported capex going up Y/Y, we expect hyperscalers for report an increase in capex in earnings. Based on what we see, we see their spend going up." - "The purchase agreements we have, to a large degree, are noncancellable." - The difference between Lumentum and companies like $AVGO, "we are not as dependent on AI datacenter buildout going forward" There's a conversion between electrical products to optical products" creating structural demand. Q: When do you see able to see yourself having more inventory? (catching up to surge in demand) - When we look at demand, there is "no end in sight" TLDR: Financing risk and demand aren't equally distributed across AI supply chains. But markets are just selling everything off together. As for photonics in specific, I said this before, but increasing optical content per XPU + CPO/NPO adoption keeps going up so we'll likely see sector spend go up, even if aggregate capex goes down. There's the usual "no end to demand in sight" commentary, but $LITE does have capacity commitments into 2029 now... and are negotiating for 2030. (with new information that most of which are likely hyperscalers + non-cancellable) So doesn't quite sound like it's all over for the AI trade, especially photonics.

Some AI bubble. Lumentum CEO in April: “basically sold out” through 2027. Now: “almost sold out for 2029.” Under-shipping demand by 30% on some products into 2028; ~70% on others in 2027. Demand keeps outrunning the fabs. Laser go pew pew. $LITE

I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. 

 $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself?

 It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. 

 So now at $130m:

- - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. 

 - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. 

 On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. 

And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." 

Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. 

I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt.

 It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. 

Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. 

Downside risk: 
- execution (as always) 
- dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B
- CPO ramp gets delayed. 

I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. 

Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. 

 When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). 

 But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. 

 If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. 

 $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. 

I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). 

 The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.

Photonic stocks will lead the market $LITE — Optical backbone of AI. Copper fails scaling. $400M backlog signals massive demand surge. $AAOI — Pure-play transceivers. 1.6T exposure. $1B+ revenue target. Demand exceeds supply into 2027. $ANET — AI networking king. Connects massive GPU clusters. Targeting $3.25B AI revenue by 2026. $AXTI — Critical laser substrate supplier. Hidden chokepoint enabling optical scaling across AI infrastructure.

Nobody said $SIVE was going to be the sole laser provider for Ayar for all generations. 2nd gen Supernova was 16x wavelength that they confirmed Sivers. Ayar is expected to do multi-vendor for lasers, would be stupid not to. Originally disclosed suppliers were $LITE, $MTSI, and $SIVE, but there's probably only a few companies that can do this new design. For their new demonstration at OCP it's 8x 200mW range, $LITE is probably the closest one technologically to Ayar's OCP announcement, with 8x 250 mW demonstrated at ECOC just last month that they're targeting availability later in 2027. I don't see anything where $MTSI has demonstrated remotely similar capabilities yet. Macom were saying they were still working on 75 mW qualifications targeting production H2 2027. $SIVE has lower power 8/16 channel specs, and individual 200 mW lasers for NPO. I think this might relate to their Seminex partnership for UHP multi channel variants that they were targeting for 2027 so high confidence they'll meet technology specs eventually, more of a matter of timing. But basically new announced configuration from Ayar, can't really make any assumptions here yet, will need to wait for earnings of these players.

By analyzing $SIVE, we can assess its potential in addressing the challenge of scaling AI clusters. And the bottleneck here is not a shortage of GPUs, but the limitations of copper interconnects. The transition of data centers to CPO makes photonics the main beneficiary of the new cycle, but the technology has a bottleneck: silicon is an inefficient light emitter. This is precisely where Sivers is positioned to occupy a strategic niche: • It supplies CW-WDM-standard InP DFB laser arrays. • It serves as a key link in the ecosystem by integrating solutions with $GFS. The market, out of habit, views SIVE as a niche R&D player, overlooking the transition of its lasers from test batches to mass production for AI factories. However, the question is: Will they manage to make the leap from an undervalued player to the primary beneficiary of CPO? Or are they a target for a potential M&A acquisition?