Student of ICT trading in futures + Momentum common stocks (Quallamaggie/Stockbee system) in Portugal. I think Trump is dangerous for democracy. Europe first.
Portugal
Joined May 2015
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Karma will handle this soon, hopefully. The most corrupt president ever.
People keep saying Trump term II is the most corrupt administration ever, so I built a model to find out if it was true.
I took the UN's definition of corruption, turned it into eight criteria and 100 points, and scored the leaders history remembers for looting their countries: Marcos, Suharto, Mobutu, Abacha, Obiang, Putin.
Then I put every president since Eisenhower on the same scale, both parties, with every exoneration counted right alongside the convictions.
Nixon scored 41 and no other American President scored over a 25.
Trump's second term scored a 91, which ties him with Suharto and Mobutu and puts him above Marcos and Abacha.
So he is not only the most corrupt president in American history. At this pace he finishes his term level with the most corrupt rulers of the last hundred years.
PSA: don't come in my comments arguing about the results if you haven't read the full article, because ignorance is a choice.
Full article is up now on my Substack (link in bio) and it's free.
Martybird_70 retweeted
Trump's approval rating is 33%.
Think about how fucking bizarre American politics has become.
A man can be rejected by roughly two-thirds of the country and still dominate television, Congress, corporations, billionaires and the national conversation like some ancient emperor everyone is terrified to tell the war isn't going particularly well.
Maybe the problem isn't just Trump.
Maybe the problem is that America accidentally built a political system where popularity is optional once you've accumulated enough power.
Martybird_70 retweeted
Jensen is using Nebius to fight the hyperscalers and this is why they will be a $1T hyperscaler (Save this)
According to a new Schedule 13G filing, Nvidia beneficially owns 22.25 million Class A shares of Nebius, made up of 1.19 million shares held directly and 21.07 million shares tied to pre-funded warrants acquired back in March 2026.
That warrant stake traces back to a $2 billion deal Nvidia struck with Nebius on March where Nvidia bought pre-funded warrants for roughly 21 million shares at an exercise price of essentially zero, structured to work almost like an upfront equity check.
Nvidia is currently restricted from exercising or selling any of those warrant-backed shares until September 11, 2026, so this stake has been locked up and largely out of the news cycle until the filing just brought it back into view.
That deal came bundled with a much bigger strategic partnership.
Alongside the investment, Nvidia and Nebius announced a plan to build out more than 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-powered AI cloud infrastructure by the end of 2030, giving Nebius early access to Nvidia's next-generation Rubin platform, Vera CPUs, and BlueField storage systems well ahead of most competitors.
This stake fits a pattern Jensen Huang has been running for a while now.
Huang reportedly hates a world where hyperscalers control all the compute, since Google TPUs and Amazon Trainium getting stronger is the one outcome that actually threatens Nvidia long-term.
That's why Nvidia keeps putting money into neoclouds like Nebius and CoreWeave and backstopping their GPU clusters, effectively betting on a wide field of players rather than letting three or four hyperscalers dominate the entire compute layer.
A GPU sold to Nebius costs Nvidia the same as a GPU sold to Google today, but five years out, every neocloud that survives and scales is one more customer that isn't building its own competing chip and one more reason inference keeps running on open, non-hyperscaler infrastructure instead of a closed ecosystem Nvidia doesn't control.
That's the real bull case for Nebius becoming a trillion dollar hyperscaler in its own right.
It already has $27 billion locked in from Meta, $17.3 billion from Microsoft, direct equity backing from Nvidia and priority access to Nvidia's next generation chip roadmap before most competitors get it, giving it the capital, the customer base, and the hardware edge all at once, exactly the combination Nvidia needs someone to have if it wants a real fifth hyperscaler standing up against Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta.
I remain extremely bullish on Nebius, follow me @MelvinInvests for more infrastructure plays and make sure to check out the link below for more!
Martybird_70 retweeted
The AI ROI question nobody wants to answer is finally coming due (Save this).
Everyone has been celebrating the revenue numbers, token growth, hyperscaler CapEx commitments but @chamath is asking the question that sits underneath all of it.
Strip out the companies selling the shovels, NVIDIA, the cloud providers, the chip equipment makers and ask what the rest of corporate America actually got for its money.
The S&P 493 has posted about 9% EPS growth since AI went mainstream.
When you unpack that, the overwhelming majority comes from pricing power sitting on top of inflation and buybacks and the actual productivity driven EPS lift from AI adoption in the real economy is somewhere between 0 and 2%.
Chamath's framing is that if AI spend is doubling, tripling, quadrupling at some point it needs to show an ROI above the risk-free rate of return.
Otherwise you don't have an AI revolution but rather the largest misallocation of corporate capital in history.
The independent data backs him up.
PwC's 2026 CEO Survey found 56% of CEOs report no increase in revenue or decrease in costs from AI and only 12% experienced both benefits simultaneously.
The problem has a name and it's called pilot purgatory.
Enterprise GenAI spending hit roughly $37 billion in 2025 more than triple the prior year.
That spend has now migrated from innovation budgets into core operating budgets, meaning CFOs are demanding answers.
Chamath is not saying AI doesn't work but rather saying the burden of proof is about to change.
Right now enterprises are being astonished by the capability and the next phase which may already be starting is being interrogated by their investors on what the capability actually produced in dollars.
can easily imagine myself follow an ongoing trend untill the summer holidays and cash all in end of july. Earnings to earnings run. Simple. First group for starters: DRAM Highest volume on 20 day average in this ETF among these from strong to weakest vol. : XLK,SMH,DTCR,SKYY,UFO
Another fun one for @RealSimpleAriel ☺️
Published a TradingView volume indicator for lower pane with timeframe's actual and relative volume. Also showing relative volume of a week vs past weeks and of the month vs past months. Look for "Volume study Mov Avg & Rvol" by Martybird92. Thanks to Claude for this.
Martybird_70 retweeted
Donald Trump absolutely hates this SNL video. It would upset him bigly if you reposted it.
He thanks you in advance for your cooperation! -DJT
Martybird_70 retweeted
NATO can help you, dear @realDonaldTrump :
1. Remove ALL tariffs on Europe first
2. Make Apple, Google, Meta pay taxes in Europe like EVERYONE ELSE
3. Stop manipulating the dollar against our exports
4. Stop stealing our best engineers with your tax dumping
5. Let our companies compete in your market WITHOUT your rigged regulations
6. Pay back the BILLIONS your tech monopolies sucked out of Europe TAX FREE
7. Buy European military equipment as we buy American military equipment. Be fair.
8. Make sure you have stopped spying on our leaders (yes we remember)
9. Pay the REAL cost of the intelligence we share with you FOR FREE every single day
10. Let the WTO actually punish you for ONCE
11. Stop threatening your allies into buying your overpriced weapons
12. Stop treating Europe like a colony
Apple made more money in Europe last year than the GDP of some of our members. You know what we got? Tariffs on our cheese. CHEESE, Donald. You put tariffs on CHEESE while Meta was robbing our ad markets completely tax free. And NOW you come crying about Iran? US, who controls SWIFT. US, who prints the reserve currency and makes the WHOLE WORLD eat your inflation. US, who has 750 military bases and calls China the imperialist. US, who told us to stop buying Russian gas and then sold us yours at 4x the price. You want help with Iran? FANTASTIC. We have a list. It's not long. It's not complicated. Even you can read it. Do the list, Donald, and we'll talk. Until then you're on your own.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER.
Martybird_70 retweeted
The 15+ year breakout is sending a very clear message:
The global rotation out of US-based assets and into the rest of the world has officially begun, in my view.
New macro presentation is out:
substack.com/@tavicosta/note…
Martybird_70 retweeted
Everyone’s focused on crash or rally.
Meanwhile, there’s a type of market that quietly ends trading careers. It’s not a crash.
But I see everyone posting and it looks like they’re about to walk right into it.
What I see coming over the next 3-6 months is not a crash. Not a rip higher. It’s both. Over and over. The kind of move that has you selling the lows and buying the highs until you’re done. Then, after you’ve lost your conviction, your capital, and your patience, the market makes its real move without you.
We’ve seen this movie before.
As a trader, sure, I’m watching tonight, after hours and tomorrow’s premarket. If we bottom in either session, selling might be done for now. We could get a vicious bounce. It’s tradeable.
But don’t mistake it for the bottom.
Friday green candles in a bear market are usually just short covering. Not conviction. And that’s the mistake I think a lot of people are about to make. They’ll see a bounce and think we’re going back to the highs. V-shaped recovery. All clear.
For investors, it can be even worse. Trying to catch falling knives. Pressing the gas right into a failed breakout because they mistook a counter-trend rally for new all-time highs incoming.
The real tell is $RSP.
That “broadening” narrative has been the market’s saving grace. But if $RSP doesn’t bounce AND tech doesn’t reclaim prior support, we’re still in trouble.
Even if we rally for another month, unless $QQQ is making new all-time highs, that rally is getting sold into. And now value is stretched too. Tech doesn’t rally + value pulls back = cycle breakdown.
Watch the tape. Not the headlines.
Euro RS Tracker - #NDUS TradingView tradingview.com/script/92TRe…
First version of a copy of Amphibiantrading's Relative strength table for Tradingview indicator for EUROPEAN SECTORS.
I am based in Portugal and trade both European and US equities.
Make Europe Great Again.
Martybird_70 retweeted
The problem isn't Trump. The problem is the US.
When the outside world observes Trump's insane behaviour and his threats against allies, and we at the same time observe that there is no real action from the US public, Congress, the US Supreme Court, or the US media about this insanity, we will all have to conclude that the US accepts this behaviour.
The public in the US think the US is entitled to a certain position in the world where there is no room for decent behaviour and where there are no norms and rules.
That means that we all have to conclude that the US — not only Trump — has betrayed the international order that the US, with its Western partners, were the main architects of after the Second World War.
This is the conclusion that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney so clearly laid out in his speech at Davos yesterday. We simply cannot trust the US to play by the rules any more. Therefore, we also fundamentally have to ask ourselves — should we trust the financial and economic structure which is an integral part of the global rules-based order?
Americans live in the illusion that the US can do everything on its own, despite the fact that the US for nearly 20 years has lived beyond its means.
US private and government consumption has been funded by, among others, European central banks and pension funds. But we now have to ask ourselves — why would we trade in dollars? Why would we put our savings into US Treasury bonds?
If the US is not a rules-based society, we cannot trust the dollar to be a stable currency, and it would be insane to hold dollars. As domestic US institutions are eroded and governance structures destroyed, the US will be turned into an emerging market economy — or more accurately, a de-merging economy.
If the US threatens the territory of allies, then the US acts as an authoritarian bully nation. Nobody in their right mind would lend money to the US government. If the US doesn't live up to its international obligations and respect the sovereignty of other nations, why would we expect the US government to honour its debts?
If Trump can tariff nations that will not give up their territory, then there is certainly no reason to believe that the US will not introduce capital controls. And if that is a risk, why would you risk investing in the US?
It is not a question about Europe standing up to the US. It is a question about being prudent with our investments — about reducing risks.
Every day Trump remains in office, distrust of the US increases, and the cost for the US will go up day by day. And this is irreversible. It takes years to build trust, but you can destroy it by your actions in minutes.
Europe has now completely lost trust in the US. And so has Canada. It is up to the people of the US to demonstrate that Trump is an 'outlier', and it is up to the American people to stop him.
If you don't do that, we will have to assume that this is what the US is about — whether the name of the President is Trump or something else, whether the President is a Republican or a Democrat.