Many people are saying we're in a bubble. Here's what the 2000 and 2007 tops had in common. Different causes, same sequence: 1. Yields topped first 2. Stocks topped second 3. Commodities topped last If something bigger is coming, this may be the order to watch.

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Here is the updated chart of the analog I have been tracking. I don't expect this to be perfect. However, it did give us great insight into the potential of a pivot/turning point in yields while they were going completely vertical.

Voila!

The Juice is loose.

Did you watch last nights mStock Market Report. Mentioned some stocks in there and setups. youtu.be/LoDJMGsKRv4

$IREN is seeing waterfall price action into a lower low trend. Interesting that the previous times this trendline was hit we saw similar waterfall type selling. Is this setting up for a shorter term bounce trade or is it game over?

THE STREAK IS OVER: The S&P 500 went 53 consecutive sessions without a >1% down close, the longest streak since it surpassed the July 2024 run (52), and the longest since the Oct 2019–Jan 2020 stretch (74 sessions, right before COVID).

It's been over 50 sessions since we have seen a >-1% down day. Will today be it? We just tagged the lower weekly expected move. $SPY

That’s wild.

When $VZ really started selling off, I was watching for a higher volume spike to signal a potential capitulation. When it came, price shortly after made another intense 1 minute bar lower. This time, however, it was on much lighter volume. This is why I put it on watch at that specific time for an intraday bounce.

Verizon $VZ is currently seeing its biggest 1 day drop in 24 years!

This is the Buffett Indicator. It takes the total value of the US stock market and divides it by US GDP. Right now it reads 244%. That is the highest on the chart, and above the +2 standard deviation historical trend line. Does this even matter anymore?

The 2018 vs 2026 rates analog is still ALIVE. Both saw a fast run higher in yields through September of a Trump midterm year, and both are now pausing in early October. Will it keep playing out? We shall see.

The big advance in rates this past month is still following the 2018 analog shared previously. Today, many names that were hurt by rising rates saw strength as rates backed off a bit. Home Depot $HD was one of them, up 3% on the day and breaking out of a downward sloping trend.

The S&P 500 hasn't closed down 1%+ in 49 straight sessions. Last time we saw a streak this long? July 2024 (52 days), which was followed by a 8-10% correction into early August. Before that? Oct 9, 2019 → Jan 24, 2020 (74 days) without a 1% down close, right before the COVID crash. This is NOT a crash call. It's an observation. H/T: Tier1Alpha

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