What does escalation with Russia look like. For two years now I have been saying: 1. The chances of a geographically constrained conflict with Russia are higher than at any point in my 24 year military career. 2. Russia is losing more than it can afford in Ukraine (30k troops a month). Missiles and drones are hitting major cities, the elites are feeling the effects of the war and economically it’s taking a toll. Putin has few options left. 3. With nowhere left to go Russian doctrine would suggest either he escalates in Ukraine or he escalates horizontally. The former would require mobilising large sections of the population further upsetting the Russian elites. The latter needs to be significant enough to bring the international community to the table to de- escalate in Ukraine whilst being calculated enough that it doesn’t trigger a NATO Article Five response. 4. Horizontal escalation would look like drones targeting an allied nation under the pretext of protecting a Russian speaking population (all the Eastern European countries have geographical pockets of Russian speaking people), seizing an uninhabited island in the Baltics or a strategically important piece of land in the High North. It could be a drone strike on Critical National Infrastructure or on Allied Troops stationed near the border. It could be a significant increase in Hybrid attacks, Cyber and espionage for example. 5. Remember that the Russians have to justify to their population why escalation is necessary so a false flag operation or a major incident is often staged/manufactured then declared to justify a significant response. 6. As I have said until I am blue in the face, if our forces don’t resemble the Ukrainians, if they don’t have the same capabilities and capacity to fight large scale drone warfare like they do, then our forces are not a deterrent. They are an opportunity. 7. Ukraine has been a net importer of security for years. They are now a net exporter. We need the Ukrainians to help us defend our Eastern Flank. They are the best in the world at this type of defence. Much of this will be tracked and observed, understanding the indicators will be key. Keep close eyes on elite drone formations. Where they go trouble is likely to follow. The best way to deter this from happening is to be prepared and actively demonstrate that to the Russians. But seriously have a think as to how you deter a leader that has willingly sustained 1.5 million casualties. That’s more than America took in WWII. It’s difficult…

Throughout Europe, school results for children of migrants are worse than natives Only in UK are they actually better In fact, UK 2nd-gen migrants do better than ANY Euro cohort: native or immigrant If demography is destiny, UK's doing ok. My column:- times-comment.com/britishkid…

The hatred of Nigel Farage — and what he represents — is oozing out of every newspaper this morning. The media bias is on full display. They hate him because of what he represents. An end to the extreme project they have imposed on us for 30 years.