France is in flames (yet he wants to rejoin the EU). Trump is selling out Ukraine, cosying up to Putin again A cost-of-living crunch is looming this winter, especially fuel bills. He still hasn’t told us how or when defence spending will reach 3% GDP. Inflation is rising once more, as are interest rates. Russian forces are threatening our infrastructure, especially undersea data and energy links. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, our Gulf allies are under attack. And PM Burnham drivels about this!! It’s like the opening sketch from Saturday Night Live.

There’s a lot of self-serving spin emanating from the UK government about how virtuous it is re fiscal consolidation. Here are the facts. Labour inherited an OBR budget deficit forecast of £87bn (3.1% GDP) for FY2024/25. After R Reeves’ 1st disastrous budget the actual deficit was £153bn (5.2%). Massive jump. Labour inherited OBR budget deficit of £77bn (2.7%) for FY2025/26. After RR’s disastrous 2nd budget that turned out to be £133bn (4.3%). So in its first two years it added over £120bn to borrowing/deficit (despite huge increase in taxes). The OBR forecast it inherited for this FY2026/27 was £69bn (2.3%). It is now forecast to be £116bn (3.3%). That looks like an underestimate. More likely to be closer to £130bn again. Inherited budget forecast for 2027/28: £51bn (1.6%). Latest forecast: £97bn (2.9%). Inherited budget forecast for 2028/29: £39bn (1.2%). Latest forecast: £86bn (2.5%). Far from fiscal consolidation Labour is forecast to borrow an incredible £260bn more over the 5 years from 2024/25 than the forecasts it inherited. Despite the tax rises. Which will continue. Alone among G7 countries the IMF projects the UK tax burden to rise by 3.7% of GDP 2025-31. The only other country with a rising tax burden is France (0.8%). Italy is static. Rest of G7 have falling tax burden. And let’s not forget Labour’s so-called ‘fiscal consolidation’ is all backloaded to end-decade. Unlikely to happen. So taxes will have to rise by even more.