Nigeria: Stop Comparing the Destination to the Starting Point. As 2027 approaches, the Nigerian political class is warming up its machinery. The promises are coming. The accusations are coming. The revisionism has already begun. So let me offer Nigerians one simple instruction: Do not compare Nigeria to the promise. Compare Nigeria to the starting point. That is the only intellectually honest way to judge a reforming government. When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office in 2023, Nigeria was not a blank sheet of paper. He did not inherit Singapore. He did not inherit Switzerland. He inherited a country carrying years of accumulated economic distortions, an unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, a deeply problematic foreign-exchange system, severe fiscal pressures, declining purchasing power and a political culture that had become remarkably comfortable with postponing difficult decisions. The choice before the new administration was therefore not between perfection and imperfection. It was between reform and continued deterioration. President Tinubu chose reform. That choice came with consequences. Fuel subsidy was removed. The exchange-rate regime was reformed. Government had to confront the uncomfortable mathematics of a country spending beyond its sustainable means. Predictably, the people who spent years demanding that Nigeria confront its structural problems suddenly discovered that they preferred the structure exactly as it was. That is politics. But economics does not care about political convenience. You cannot consume tomorrow forever. You cannot subsidise everything forever. You cannot maintain artificial exchange rates forever. You cannot continue accumulating obligations while pretending that somebody else will eventually pay the bill. At some point, reality sends the invoice. President Tinubu decided to open it. Was the adjustment painful? Yes. Did Nigerians suffer through the transition? Yes. Should government therefore stop reform? No. That would be like stopping medical treatment because recovery is uncomfortable. The relevant question is not whether reform hurts. The relevant question is whether the patient is getting better. And this is where the Nigerian political debate has become deliberately dishonest. Some people want Nigerians to judge today’s Nigeria against the Nigeria that politicians promised during campaigns. That is not how serious policy evaluation works. Judge the starting point. Judge the intervention. Judge the direction of travel. Judge the emerging outcomes. Then ask whether we should continue. My framework is simple: Starting Point → Reform → Progress → Prosperity. That is the line Nigerians should be watching. And the magic does not happen in Abuja alone. The magic happens in the states. Nigeria is a federation. The quality of Nigerian life is ultimately determined in communities: in farms, factories, markets, schools, hospitals, construction sites, transport corridors, technology hubs and businesses. This is why the next phase of the Tinubu project must be judged increasingly by what the reforms are enabling across the states. Are states receiving greater fiscal space? Are they investing? Are businesses expanding? Are new projects being announced? Are infrastructure corridors being developed? Are governments becoming more capable of generating and deploying resources? Are investors beginning to see Nigeria differently? Are Nigerians beginning to see opportunities where previously there was only scarcity? These are the questions that matter. Not the noise. Not the social-media theatrics. Not the recycled speeches of people who had years sometimes decades to demonstrate what they could do. And Nigerians must be particularly careful about the politics of selective memory. Suddenly, everybody remembers what Nigeria should become. Very few want to discuss what Nigeria was. I remember. I remember the distortions.