@MarcNovicoff

Staff Writer @TheAtlantic | Alum of @monthly, @politico, Slow Boring, @dartmouth and Los Angeles | journalism portfolio (and contact) at link

 DC
docs.google.com/document/d/1WohfUnxnDlRpF_F0U_ZLh4e_z39KLJW1iLO2z9PAEPw/edit?tab=t.0
Joined March 2014
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If the polls are right, Democrats are dominating. But that's no guarantee theatlantic.com/politics/202…

How the Polls Could Be Wrong Again

Democrats appear headed toward a big victory. But a small polling error could mean a dramatically different outcome.

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How the Democrats got to be in such an unbelievable position theatlantic.com/politics/202…

Can the Polls Possibly Be Right?

Democrats are now favored to take back the Senate, a prospect that seemed far-fetched a year ago.

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Democrats are converging on universal childcare. But do most parents want it? theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…

The Problem With Democrats’ Favorite Policy Proposal

Universal child care appeals to the party’s cosmopolitan base—but not to most of the country.

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For about three decades, scholars have argued that if men did more childcare and housework, the fertility rate would rise. The first part is happening, but the second is not. theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…

Are Men to Blame for the Birth-Rate Collapse?

Whether dads do their fair share of the housework appears to have no effect on fertility.

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Nobel-winning economist Claudia Goldin has a new paper asserting this theory. But if you add in the rest of the OECD to her most important chart and update the data, the correlation vanishes.
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What about the influential 2008 paper hers is based on? The same thing! Update the data, and the whole chart shifts right and down, until the relationship is completely flat. Across the world, men's contributions to the home are rising as fertility plummets.
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I wrote about Social Security, how we accidentally engineered its insolvency, and how we're likely to save it by making our social safety net even more lopsided theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…

The Social Security Reckoning Is Finally Coming

Senators elected this November will be in office when America’s most popular federal program is on track to run out of money.

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We are announcing four new roles and promotions at The Atlantic: @MarcNovicoff, @nancywalecki, @mvzelenks, and @jkirchick. More info here:  theatlantic.com/press-releas…

The Atlantic Announces Marc Novicoff and Nancy Walecki as Staff Writers, Michael Zelenko as Senior...

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My thoughts on the sad race to be mayor of Los Angeles:
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L.A.’s Lose-Lose-Lose Primary

The mayoral race is a staging ground for three of the most unfortunate tendencies in American politics.

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The maps will get worse before they get better...if they ever get better theatlantic.com/politics/202…

The House of Representatives Is Turning Into the Electoral College

Thanks to the Supreme Court, the gerrymandering wars, already awful, are poised to get even worse.

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How to spend more than $40,000 per pupil: diagnose 22% of the kids as disabled, get a 9:1 pupil-to-teacher ratio, make it illegal to cut the budget as enrollment swiftly declines, and stop anyone from changing the laws. Then, increase the budget. theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…

A Mediocre Public-School Education for Just $40,000 a Pupil

How New York City’s education budget became an untouchable money pit

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Mandatory E-Verify, the easiest choice in immigration policy as soon as you make all the hard ones theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…

The Immigration Restriction Trump Won’t Try

Focusing enforcement on employers might be the easiest choice in immigration policy—after all the hard ones are made.

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Republicans are trying to pass a bill that will probably hurt their chances of winning future elections. Democrats won't let them. theatlantic.com/politics/202…

Trump’s Favorite Voter-ID Bill Would Probably Backfire

Congressional Republicans are trying to pass a strict “election integrity” law that seems almost custom-designed to disenfranchise their own supporters.

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The biggest reason Trump's approval rate has dropped is affordability. The reason people won't embrace Democrats is culture. As @jonathanchait and I write, Gavin Newsom, the overwhelming Dem favorite at the moment, has huge weaknesses on both fronts theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…

Gavin Newsom’s Record Is a Problem

The California governor’s pivot to the center may be too late for 2028.

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I wrote about whether we have crossed the line, from democracy to...various other things theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0…

How to Tell If Your President Is a Dictator

A year into Donald Trump’s second term, labeling his governing style remains an elusive goal.

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The special election last night in Tennessee showed how strong the Democrats' current position is, and also, how much stronger it could be theatlantic.com/politics/202…

Republicans Are in Trouble, but Democrats Could Blow It

Last night’s Tennessee special election gave both Democrats and Republicans something to worry about.

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I wrote about gerrymandering, where every constraint on the practice is falling away, and Republicans are not interested in an off-ramp. Including most of the ones whose careers will be ended by it.
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Welcome to the Gerrymandering Apocalypse

America is quickly moving toward a system in which tens of millions of blue-state Republicans and red-state Democrats effectively have no congressional representation at all.

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Democrats had a great night on Tuesday, but performing well in off-year elections was never the problem--being competitive in more states is the problem! theatlantic.com/politics/202…
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