@ManicRegression

Pens fan. Spreadsheet warrior. Need the eye test like a hole in the head

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Joined May 2016
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For context, 1 is the average. Casey Cizikas leads the league at 3.76. (shot quality 92.3 percentile, volume 2.2 percentile). ~1/4 of forwards score between 1 and 2. Another ~1/3 of forwards score between 0.5 and 1. The bottom 15% of the league falls under 0.25.
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I took every line that played at least a minute per period together the last 2 years (i.e. 3 mins/game) - Robertson's in 3 of the top 5 - Novak-Rakell-Malkin was an elite shot generation line - Koivunen-Kindel-McGroarty was an elite shot suppression line
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Making the optimal lineup, you'd probably go Rakell-Crosby-Robertson Chinakhov-Novak-Malkin Koivunen-Kindel-McGroarty Dewar-Lizotte-Soderblom All offense top 6, all defense bottom 6
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I guess I should say top 15% of the league
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Rust is 10th among Pens forwards in 5v4 minutes per game Last year he was 44th among 330 skaters who played >=60 minutes (~10 per team) in points per 60 (5.94) They generated over a shot per minute with him on the ice (60.5 per 60), 21st in that group They need to let him cook
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Malkin was 17th in points per 60 last year (6.71). Crosby was 29th (6.3) It should be Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Karlsson and Kindel.
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Workshopping a stat called PSM (Perfect shot Merchantry) It's the percentile for expected sh% of all unblocked shot attempts (shot quality), divided by the percentile for unblocked shots per 60 (volume) I scaled it used natural log since some dudes have absurd ratios
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The Volume and Quality numbers are percentiles Chinakhov's obv not afraid to take a ton of difficult shots Robertson is cashing in a lot despite having a similar strategy
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On the other end: Ville, Elmer and Lap haven't entrenched themselves as regular because they're hell-bent on hunting the perfect shot Novak needs to shoot more too, given the quality of shots he gets
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The Pens allow just 18.7 unblocked shot attempts per 60 at 5v5 with Soderblom on the ice. Out of 659 skater who've played at least 20 minutes (20-21 per team), that's 2nd best in the league.
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Crosby 5v5 : 142 minutes, 45.5 Fenwick%, 51.9 xGF% Letang 5v5 : 166 minutes, 52.4 FF%, 59.8 xGF% together: 54 minutes, 42.2 FF%, 46 xGF% Sid and Tanger are playing worse together than ever but the silver lining is Letang has his best numbers with Robertson (63.6 FF%, 68.6% xGF%
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if they reunite Crosby and Robertson, there will be much better days ahead for our beloved Crosby-Letang duo.
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Hallander stumps have been real quiet since the trade
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Evgeni Vladimirovich Malkin, at 40 years of age, is scoring 5v5 goals at the 3rd highest per-minute rate of his career the other 2 years, he combined for 83 goals in 117 games, a 51 goal per-84 (YA I SAID IT) games pace
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Among fwds with at least 20 mins played, he's 72nd in 5v5 goal per min rate at 1.33 Say Geno plays 70 games, and sustains his current 5v5 shot rate (6.23 per 60)
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*5v5 goals per 60 rate
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Then say he matches his career high sh% of 17.4% the rest of the year: impressive but not outlandish he'd finish at 1.14 goals per 60, which would still be a top line rate
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#PensThru10 5v5 Take the top 192 defensemen in TOI/G (6 per team) The Pens with Karlsson allow 34.5 shots per 60, 180th out of the 192
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#PensThru10 Pens are also 1 of just 5 teams with 0 defensemen in the top 64 in TOI/G out of that sample (i.e. top pairing level) Muse knows the back end is weak Letang and Stastney are playing more than Karlsson (5v5) Girard is playing just 18 fewer seconds per game (5v5)
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