The Next War with Iran Could Escalate Almost Immediately, and Far Beyond the Previous Conflict One thing has become increasingly clear from Iran’s behavior in recent weeks: if the confrontation returns to full-scale war, escalation is likely to be rapid, dramatic, and potentially far more dangerous than anything we witnessed during the previous conflict. The red lines that constrained both sides during the last war could collapse almost immediately. We should not assume that another confrontation would begin with gradual escalation, carefully calibrated retaliation, or attempts to signal intentions while avoiding a broader conflict. Quite the opposite. Once either side decides to return to high-intensity warfare, the conflict could escalate dramatically from the very beginning. Even if the next war lasts fewer than 39 days, its intensity could be significantly greater from day one, as both sides seek to apply the lessons they believe they learned from the previous confrontation. From Tehran’s perspective, this could mean expanding the geographical boundaries of the conflict, targeting critical infrastructure, including undersea internet cables, and potentially even considering limited ground operations toward Kuwait. These are not inevitable outcomes, but they are scenarios that should no longer be dismissed. The fundamental danger is that the next war may not follow the familiar pattern of action, retaliation, and gradual escalation. Instead, both sides could move almost immediately toward their most aggressive military options, believing that the lessons of the previous war demand precisely that approach. The next war with Iran may be shorter than the last one. But it could also be far more intense, destructive, and difficult to contain from the very first day. #iran