Thursday Night Football POTD 🏈 AJ Barner O 23.5 Rec Yards (-109) Love this spot for Barner to bounce back on Thursday Night Football. It has been a quiet start to the season for the tight end, covering this line in just 1/5 games; however, there is a lot to like about this matchup and the underlying usage. This season, despite his limited production, Barner has been a key cog in this offense. He ranks first among all Seattle skill players in snap share, and second in route share behind only JSN. He also ranks second in target share, granted it's a massive gap between his 13.6% and JSN’s 32.7%, but this matchup should present Barner with some good opportunities. Pat Surtain will once again miss this week for the Broncos, with Talanoa Hufanga now also ruled out. Last week without Surtain and Moss, who is currently questionable, the Broncos deployed 2-high coverage on 65% of snaps, up 18% from their average over the first 4 games of the season. Their limited personnel led them to opt to limit big plays and switch away from their man-heavy approach. I expect an insane amount of attention on JSN in this one, who will always get his, but it should free up some stuff underneath. Denver also blitzed on 33% of dropbacks in Week 5 (11th highest). Denver’s DC Vance Joseph has blitzed at a top-12 clip since becoming the Broncos DC in 2023. This season, Barner’s TPRR jumps from 14% to 24% when the opposing defense blitzes. Additionally, his YPRR jumps from 0.63 when facing man coverage to 1.27 vs. zone, which I expect Denver will continue to lean on with Surtain out. Love backing a guy with a history of making plays, whose production hasn’t quite matched up with his opportunity. The Barnyard party starts this week, and you're invited! Graph: Games with Sam Darnold & 70% snap share