Macro Trader
Joined June 2019
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Make Macro Great Again retweeted
With transcontinental flights having to wiggle their way between Iran and Russia, throwback to when flights to South Africa had to fly around Africa because of Apartheid boycotts
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
A tax-minimising landlord too. The left are such hypocrites.
NEW: Mothin Ali, deputy leader of the Green Party, whose policy is to “abolish landlords”, *is* a landlord.
Story in the Sunday Times:
thetimes.com/article/f95a49e…
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
"The losses generated by Aschenbrenner’s leveraged AI stock bets put him up at the top of the global leaderboard of fund facepalms."
@FT
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
Because I'm open minded and anything can happen I am going to consider a new scenario that massively extrapolates the recent "Bessent" will protect the bond market at all cost narrative
The means of doing that is very simple and his only real "manipulation" lever. Of
Course he could protect the bond market by dealing with the root causes of deficits and debt but thats just silly to expect. 3-3-3 is a joke, DOGE was a cruel joke, Mar A lago accord and tariffs have disappeared. So its run it hot and pull the only lever left
That lever is debt composition. Currently the debt is 21.5% bills. He could let that float to long term highs or even recession spike highs. I don't think he will but just playing out the idea.
The means of letting the bills ratio float to these new levels could be gradual or rapid. Most gradual would be status quo and remaining at current coupon issuance sizes for ever. A second means of doing it would require a fed balance sheet change where they stop reinvesting in bonds and long term notes and reinvest in bills while the treasury keeps auction sizes the same. The third more rapid version would be to reduce auction sizes and a fourth even more rapid version would be to reduce auction sizes while the Fed also shifts. That would be pretty rapid but not even close to the most rapid version. That version would be a full tender offer for long dated existing debt financed with issuance of bills. Whats the scale. Going from 21.5% bills to 25% bills would be roughly 1TN more bills and 1TN less duration. Going from 21.5% bills to 30% bills would increase bills by 2.5TN and decrease duration by 2.5TN. Thats the scale. If thats the destination to consider it's a matter of timing the rapidity of the move and the frontrunning of the move.
The tender offer idea is obviously NOT what they are going to do. It would be a political impossibility with incredible negative geopolitical and economic implications. Talk about an immediate end to reserve
Currency status jeez. The more likely imho is case 4. Reducing auction sizes while the Fed adds bills.
Whats the impact on markets? In both the 25% and 30% case the impact is identical.
Currency depreciation and risk premium contraction will occur. The economic outcome would also be wildly stimulative and inflationary. I estimate a 1TN swap to 25% bills would compress risk premiums by 40-50bp suppressing long term bond yields by that amount.
That would drive a 7% rally in bonds, a 15% rally in stocks and a 10% rally in gold with a similar decline in the USD of 8-10%. Real growth and inflation would spike.
A 30% bills ratio destination would have profound impact on markets. Gold and stocks could rally far in excess of 20% and dollar could fall by more than 15%. Bonds "should" rally but the inflation and growth stimulus would probably constrain or reverse some of the risk premium benefit. Perhaps bonds wouldn't rally as much as the less extreme case. Tips would outperform nominals for sure. Anyway those are my thoughts. I dont think this is what treasury has in mind but its worth considering
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
Excellent visual showing how profit flows through the AI value chain.
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
1/ Chilling statistics and a stark warning from one of Iran’s most prominent economists: In a major essay published in Iran’s Donya-ye Eqtesad newspaper, economist Masoud Nili argues that Iran has reached a historic crossroads. The data paint a picture of an economy under extraordinary strain and of a country facing a choice between two fundamentally different models of governance.
Here are some of his key findings:
2/ Since early 2018, the exchange rate has increased nearly 50-fold. In comparable periods before, it had risen by no more than fourfold. This happened through seven major currency crises that repeatedly shook Iran’s economy.
Overall prices have increased by more than 19 times, compared with 3.5 to 3.8 times during similar periods in the past. Food prices have risen by more than 34 times.
3/ Since 2018, GDP has barely grown, while real per capita national income has fallen by nearly 12%.
Between 2018 and 2024, around 16 million people fell below the poverty line: an increase with no historical precedent.
4/ Since 2019, Iran’s working-age population has grown by about 5 million people, but net employment has increased by only 400,000. An average of just 57,000 new jobs per year.
Of Iran’s 66.5 million working-age population, around 40 million are outside the labor force, while about 2.5 million are unemployed. Young people aged 20 to 29 make up the largest share of both inactive and unemployed populations.
5/ The number of women of working age has increased by 2.6 million, yet female employment has not grown. Instead, 700,000 women’s jobs have disappeared.
In just one year, from spring 2025 to spring 2026, Iran lost about 630,000 industrial jobs, wiping out employment gains accumulated gradually over the previous eight years.
6/ Nili argues that the years since 2018 have brought not only economic deterioration but an extraordinary concentration of national crises, from the November 2019 protests, the January 2020 tragedies, the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 protests, the 12-day war, the January 2026 events, and the second phase of the war, all leaving deep psychological scars on Iranian society.
7/ His conclusion is ultimately about governance, not economics. Iran now faces two fundamentally different paths.
One treats governance as an arena of confrontation and perpetual conflict.
The other sees governance as the responsibility to provide stability, peace, economic well-being, and prosperity while safeguarding the country’s dignity and independence.
These two approaches cannot coexist indefinitely. As Iran passes through one of the most turbulent periods in its modern history, only one will ultimately shape its future.
8/ Masoud Nili is not an ordinary commentator. He is a professor of economics at Sharif University of Technology, holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Manchester, served as a senior economic adviser to President Hassan Rouhani, contributed to Iran’s first and second five-year development plans, and has spent decades researching macroeconomics, political economy, and economic development. At the moment, super hardliners are pushing for a more confrontational path, but his analysis and stats make it clear what Iran’s priority should be. Link to the full article in persian: donya-e-eqtesad.com/%D8%A8%D…
🤖 Made with AI
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
there has been residual seasonality in the core CPI since COVID. Could the hawks be running into a seasonality problem for their September rate hike? (maybe we should go back to looking at inflation data from a YoY perspective again...)
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
Labor market nerds - in case you missed it, the great @keds_economist and I chatted about jobs data for A WHOLE HOUR***
***we could have kept going
macromostly.substack.com/p/j…
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
Part seasonal but there are real underlying losses here. A recent article (link below) describes layoffs “as the largest wave in more than a decade” Reasons cited include falling enrollment, higher labor and material costs & end of pandemic era $ that led to more hiring.
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
This Leopold / Situational Awareness story is crazy.
> Go from $1.5B to $20B in under two years.
> Over 1,000% since launch, 270% ytd to May alone.
> Jane Street which almost never allocates to external managers becomes an investor.
> $24B near the highs, levered as much as 4x. Up 439% for H1'26.
> July 2026: AI names go down as much as 50%.
> Compounded with up to 4x margin...
> Leopold sends letter to LPs for additional capital reported by FT yesterday, says that this is a buying opp.
> Today: CNBC reports Situational Awareness has exited all public equity positions.
> One buyer takes everything, both L/S books, in one enormous block.
> Jane Street?? Who buys a whole levered spread book in one go? Isn't that is literally Jane Street's business?
> As an LP, Jane Street had the inside view of exactly his book. Which would make this even more ironic...
> If it was JS, the arc completes: Leopold's rarest backer would be the buyer of his whole book lol.
> What's left of Leopold? Whatever's left in the private book after selling Anthropic stake and the capital raise, if any.
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
Different groups, with different interests
Iran Update Special Report, July 28, 2026: Three competing groups within the regime are attempting to influence negotiations policy. The group currently arguing for negotiations and total control over the strait is likely guiding policy at this time. This group is likely led by elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), including IRGC commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi.
More Key Takeaways:
The “IRGC-Vahidi” group is under pressure from a pro-negotiations and pro-compromise group that likely includes but is not limited to President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. This group primarily disagrees with the IRGC-Vahidi group over means, not ends. This group also seeks “control” of the strait, though its definition of control may be less expansive.
The third group is an ultra-hardline faction, the Paydari Front, which opposes all negotiations with the United States. This group is a small minority, but its proximity to power through regime insiders like Saeed Jalili, who is currently a Supreme Leader representative on Iran’s top national security decision-making body — the Supreme National Security Council — and previously chaired the council, would likely require Vahidi and other policymakers to take note of its views.
Concerns from pro-negotiation corners in Iran over continued US sanctions, the US blockade, and economic damage from the war underscore the risk Iran faces in continuing the war indefinitely. Economic challenges caused by the US blockade were among the reasons why Pezeshkian argued the Memorandum of Understanding’s (MOU) case to the supreme leader in June, according to the New York Times, which indicates that at least some regime actors believe the present situation is untenable for Iran.
Iran continues to reject compromises to Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz because hardline decisionmakers perceive control of the waterway as the regime’s most reliable means of preserving future leverage. Iran is refusing to give up control of the strait in talks with Omani mediators as the mediators have proposed a formal 10-day truce, according to a US official and mediators speaking to Western media on July 27.
The Houthis claimed to have struck a Saudi vessel on July 28, marking their third claimed attack on Saudi shipping since July 22. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea announced on July 28 that the Houthis fired several ballistic missiles targeting the Saudi-flagged oil and chemical tanker NCC Ghazal for “violating” the Houthi blockade.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) reportedly asked the Houthis to facilitate safe passage for Chinese-owned oil tankers through the Red Sea, according to six informed sources speaking to Reuters on July 28. Reuters, citing commercial ship tracking data, reported on July 28 that at least four tankers transporting Saudi oil to China transited the Bab al Mandeb since the Houthis announced their blockade on July 20. (1/2)
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
Recent bond selloff has driven 30yr TIPS to near 3% real yields. While everyone roots around to find the next hot stock, this is likely the generational buying opportunity hiding in plain sight.
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
This fantastic figure by @jburnmurdoch is Exhibit 1 of what an aging society means for the political game: public investment, which is choosing future rewards over present consumption, gets squeezed out.
Still not convinced this is a first-order challenge?
The trade after your best trade of the year is often the one that gives it all back. I gathered not many write about what a winning streak does to you. So I wrote a piece on it… (free to read)
lordfed.co.uk/p/the-danger-o…
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
One of the bigger changes with this latest rush of exiting Hormuz transits is that we're seeing more VLCCs* in the mix, which is bumping up the total exit volume.
By my count, 10-day rolling exits hit a new Hormuz crisis high pace of ~8.5 million barrels per day over the weekend.
Exit pace still notably outstripping pace of newly entering tankers, which are the ones we'll need to restart production and sustain this exit pace much longer as we draw down long-stranded stranded floating stock.
* Very Large Crude Carrier carrying ~2 million barrels
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
London & second home hotspots ‘hit hardest by property slump’ dlvr.it/TT5XsC
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
"During Warsh’s term (if he lasts as long as prior Fed chairs), he will preside over the dreaded crossover point: in 2031 entitlements, interest and other mandatory outlays are projected to permanently exceed Federal tax revenues for the first time."
-JPM Cembalest
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
Households on A Knife's Edge
Real incomes are now contracting, but households have kept up spending so far. Without income or price relief, their choice of whether to keep dissaving will define the US economy in 2H26.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p…
Make Macro Great Again retweeted
A potential deal to end the Iran war has Tehran feeling triumphant—but the Islamic Republic’s leaders may find that the problems of peace are the hardest to solve, Arash Azizi writes. theatlantic.com/internationa…
