Industry-Leading Investment Education Grounded In Macro. Founded By @francoistrahan. Subscribe to Macro Monday: https://xitter.cf/t.co/qB87yO51F4
Joined December 2023
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Nearly 75% of U.S. large-cap active managers failed to beat their passive peers over the last 12 months.
Here's a simple explanation...
There's a huge mismatch between how investment professionals are trained and what it takes to outperform in 2026.
The Macro Institute retweeted
Since May, the U.S. government has refunded about $115 billion in tariffs to the companies that paid them.
It has worked like stimulus, and it landed in an economy that has been dealing with an inflation problem for years.
Read More 👇
linkedin.com/pulse/washingto…
The Macro Institute retweeted
Last week, the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023.
The usual suspects got most of the attention: oil prices, a labor market at full employment, and unbreakable consumers.
I don't blame anyone for having tariff fatigue, but it keeps getting left off the list.
The Macro Institute retweeted
The market currently thinks there is a roughly 93% chance of a Fed hike today.
If this does end up being the start of a rate hiking cycle, there's two stats I want you to remember.
1. The Fed (Usually) Doesn't Hike Just Once 👇
The Macro Institute retweeted
We are 54 days out from midterms, and the Senate is a coin flip.
Democrats need three holds and four flips from a list that includes states they haven't won the Senate in since 1988.
It's also irrelevant if you're positioning your portfolio around it.
linkedin.com/pulse/stocks-do…
The Macro Institute retweeted
There are only 55 days until midterm elections.
I’ve heard plenty of commentary on how you should position your portfolio around it, so I went back to 1934 to see whether midterm elections are even worth trading at all.
The results surprised me!
Next BuyPartisan out tomorrow.
The Macro Institute retweeted
Long rates are up ~400 bps off their lows and mortgage rates have followed.
Housing affordability is at record lows and mortgage applications are near cycle lows.
If long rates don't fall, the warning housing is sending won’t be confined to housing.
youtube.com/watch?v=yEaaHPGj…
The Macro Institute retweeted
A new home now sells for ~$40,000 less than an existing home.
From 2010-2023, new homes carried a premium ranging from $40K-$90K. The spread crossed zero in 2024 and has widened since.
New home prices are down y/y, while existing home prices have risen for 12 straight quarters.
The Macro Institute retweeted
Updated some of our housing charts based on the recent spike in long-term rates, so expect a few housing charts from me!
The Consumer Housing Affordability Index, which sums the two University of Michigan buying-conditions readings, has been sitting at record lows since 2022.
If you are a CFA Charterholder, you've completed the most demanding credential in the investment industry. Over 200,000 professionals have done the same, which reflects how well the program works.
The CFA establishes credibility, but what you build on top distinguishes you.
The M²SD is built for that.
The CFA teaches what a security is worth, while the M²SD teaches the macro and business cycle framework that determines what happens to that security next.
The two credentials stack.
Charterholders also don't start from the beginning.
Those who complete the Practical Macro PSM in the CFA Learning Portal can skip M²SD Level 1 entirely. That puts a charterholder one level away from a second credential.
Learn More: themacroinstitute.com/cfa-ca…
The Macro Institute retweeted
Behavioral finance sits at an awkward spot in the investment industry.
However, most investors use these tools: sentiment surveys and confidence readings all rest on behavioral concepts, and those explain a lot of what markets do.
Watch Macro Monday👇
youtube.com/watch?v=DZs66_rA…
The Macro Institute retweeted
The federal deficit is back in the news, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently saying there's "nothing magic" about the U.S.'s $40 trillion national debt.
While we're on the topic, in this week's BuyPartisan we're going to take a trip down memory lane to the 2017 TCJA.
📝 𝐌²𝐒𝐃 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐀𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐞𝐧 📝
We are excited to announce the 2nd year of the M²SD Scholars Program.
Our goal is to find tomorrow's top investors and enhance their education by allowing them to enter our designation program for free.
Accepted students will receive some exciting and valuable perks:
🌟 Free enrollment in Level 1 of the M²SD Designation Program.
🌟 Invitations to TMI Events.
🌟 Listing as a member of the M²SD Scholars Class of 2027 on our website.
🌟 A unique resume booster.
We will be announcing the M²SD Scholar Class of 2027 throughout the fall.
Our annual M²SD Scholar Classes are limited in size, and acceptance will be issued on a rolling basis, so we encourage you to apply sooner rather than later.
Learn More & Apply: themacroinstitute.com/macro-…
The Macro Institute retweeted
I never thought I would post my takeaways from FOMC minutes, but given the uncertainty surrounding the institution, I feel it’s appropriate for the time being, so here are two things that jumped out at me.
1. Warsh floated cutting the Fed to six meetings a year.
The Macro Institute retweeted
Top three stock returns: Clinton, Obama, FDR. All Democrats.
Bottom three: Hoover, Bush, Nixon. All Republicans.
Case closed?
Clinton raised taxes and squeezed federal outlays. The standard framework says equities should have struggled.
Instead, best return of any president.
Traditional finance teaches you to be right about a company, but the last decade has paid people who were right about rates and the cycle.
Markets are driven by macro forces, and the Macro Specialist Designation is built to close that gap.
Learn More: themacroinstitute.com/macro-…
