Markets, RWA, AI | Macro strategy. Technical, fundamental & quantitative analysis. Narratives, signals, data. Deep dives & theses. Reports worth bookmarking!
Joined September 2009
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Macro Alchemy retweeted
I think I have a good analogy for what's about to happen in cyber.
It's pitch dark. Always has been. And the world is dilapidated buildings and rats and maggots and other creepy-crawlies. The whole world.
And we just invented flashlights.
That's why analysts judging how much these companies make from subs and their APIs is meaningless.
Although I also said something a few months ago. AI is driving its own demand. Demand for cyber defense, for a problem AI itself has created.
Macro Alchemy retweeted
I getting a feeling that OpenAI and Anthropic soon will ditch customers completely, just use their models 100% internally and go all in on frontier science and engineering research
Like eg if they actually solve quantum gravity or cure cancer, and own the right to license the solution, can you imagine the ROI behind that? No more listening to users bitching about usage or model nerf or whatever
Dr. Christopher Stubbs is joining our Long-Term Benefit Trust. Chris is an experimental physicist and a former Dean of Science at Harvard University. He has also advised the US government on national security and arms control.
Read more: anthropic.com/news/christoph…
This, but without the illusion of democracy.
Governments don't care about us. At least in the west, they really hate us.
China is treating its citizens much better, compared to how the western governments are treating their citizens... and it's not a democracy.
The Intelligence Curse is happening
TLDR: When AIs make humans economically useless, governments and corporations have no incentive to invest in their people
For centuries, normal people could withhold their labor to negotiate. That era is almost over.
This breaks democracy - politicians won't need the support of the people - and leads to severe concentration of power
youtube.com/watch?v=Rqt9kWoT…
These people are evil and are coming for us.
Unfortunately, most of us, if not all of us... are cattle about to be sacrificed to their Gods. Within the next few months they will throw everything at us. War, famine, cyberattacks... everything.
Macro Alchemy retweeted
what I've learned from this post is that almost no one is AGI-pilled and that they don't take seriously the possibility of tens to hundreds of millions of AIs working 24/7 at 10–100x human speed
When you look at all the statistics by Anthropic, it's clear that they will have reached RSI by the end of Jan.
One could say they are already there. Their models already help build big part of their models and software.
Opus 5.5 is 5 months behind where Anthropic is internally
Macro Alchemy retweeted
Things that don't matter (in the grand scheme of things):
- ARR, revenue, profitability, cash flow
- Which publicly available model can generate slightly more interesting game assets, viral videos, pelican SVGs, etc.
- Which publicly available model is slightly better in actual real-world use cases than other publicly available models
- Benchmarks
- Releases by non-frontier labs that claim to have caught up to the frontier (because the real frontier models are not publicly available)
Things that do matter:
- RSI
- Capabilities of frontier internal models
- Novel discoveries made by AI, especially those showcasing creativity, "research taste", etc.
- Advances in model safety
- LLMs manipulating robots, especially as models get to lower and lower latency
- Computer use, especially as models get to lower and lower latency
- China
Macro Alchemy retweeted
SI labs will never solve alignment.
they’re trying to solve a philosophical and theological problem as an engineering one.
they’ve assembled some of the greatest engineers on the planet, but put socially dysfunctional nerds with an incredibly shallow understanding of human nature in charge of defining what superintelligence should value.
humanity has spent thousands of years trying to align humans and always failed, we can’t even agree on what is good and now we expect a handful of engineers to solve the same problem for superintelligence? lmao, the hubris
you can’t align something with humanity if you don’t understand humanity in the first place.
at this point, you’re probably better off developing ASI and asking it how to solve alignment.
Macro Alchemy retweeted
definitely not in 2–3 months, but consider this:
1. the cost-capability pareto frontier keeps improving. models are getting cheaper and more efficient. the latest haiku seems to be as good as opus 4.6(?)
2. put models scheming aside, i dont buy that yet. but what if some random guy who took down fridges in a French supermarket for no gains decides to abliterate an open weight model capable of exploiting low hanging 0-days and n-days, and post trains it to self-replicate?
3. also consider this, in the hugging face incident, there was no incentive for the model to exfiltrate or replicate itself. but what if a slightly misaligned model is given a task where self replication becomes a step toward solving it?
if you consider these possibilities, the idea doesn't look that far-fetched.
anthropic.com/research/self-…
Of course he 'estimated' wrong before, so that they would draw less attention to the topic.
There is no way he didn't know back then.
Jack Clark, Anthropic's co-founder, says he now believes full recursive self-improvement (RSI) is more likely to become possible in 2027 rather than 2028, citing rapid improvements in AI research capabilities and creativity.
If you guys remember in his May 2026 analysis, he previously estimated a 30% probability by 2027 and roughly 60% by 2028.
This is BS, the same way people think Google or Meta caught up. They haven't.
Secondly, let's see how they do with out distillation.
My opinion? The major ones will land above 53 and below 60. They have a chance to shock everyone.
I agree. We are past the event horizon. We are in the black hole, right now.
There is no going back. Opus 5.5 + CC is AGI... Period.
Internally the big labs are close to ASI, and they are months away from reaching achieve RSI that will lead to ASI.
Things will get wild...
