Puzzling over (lack of) stock market reaction to trade war news over last few days.
1. Already priced in (saw it coming)?
2. Thinks peace deal coming?
3. Thinks it's no big deal?
4. Offsetting effects cancel out?
5. Nobody cares about future earnings?
Nick Rowe retweeted
Updated note on my paper with @MacRoweNick : xitter.cf/vdehejia/status/205605… The note does two things: (1) sketches an explicit microfoundation for our reduced form deadweight cost function, establishing that marginal DWC must be convex; and (2) numerical example with our special case.
Possibly stupid (shower thought) Micro question:
If I make my demand curve more elastic than is privately optimal, does that benefit others?
(I adjust more to supply shocks (both directions), so others don't need to adjust as much.)
(Thinking gas prices, of course.)
A new technology (AI/whatever) will not cause real wages to fall unless it causes a rise in land rents (natural resources) or machinery rents (capital).
(Otherwise workers/employers could/would just revert to the old technology, and increase their wages/profits.) 1/
IMO (which isn't worth much), the biggest risk to real wages is if AI causes land rents (natural resource prices) to rise.
Sorta like a Malthus/Ricardo model, except you're adding robot labour to human labour. 2/
Nick Rowe retweeted
Replying to @LorenzoFrom @Noahpinion @ScottSumnerTMI @GarettJones @GlennLoury @DrSamuelGregg @MacRoweNick @C_Harwick
6. But the reality is that conventional centre-right politicians are being displaced by national populists not because they did not pay attention to economists, but because they did.
lorenzofromoz.net/p/why-we-s…
My utility is measured in Celsius, your utility is measured in Fahrenheit.
Both cardinal, but interpersonal comparisons are tricky.
"Affordability" is the same as "real incomes".
But it's funny how changing the framing leads you to think differently about policies that might improve it.
I understand what Warren is saying here (at least, I *think* I do).
Let me give my (massively over-) simplified interpretation: 1/
Replying to @farmerrf
Markets (in the context of institutional structure) sort out relative value, but not 'absolute' value in terms of a currency. That information comes exogenously, in this case prices paid by gov. when it spends provides information for market prices to then be in that numeraire.
That was massively over-simplified, of course.
We can relax the assumption that the govt buys only rifles, and we can relax the assumption that the govt has a *perfectly* elastic demand curve at a given nominal price. 4/
The key assumption, that we can't relax, is that the government has a *downward-sloping* demand curve for goods, as a function of the *nominal* (not real/relative) price of goods.
Did I interpret you *roughly* right, @wbmosler ? 5/end
I can't get excited about banks as financial intermediaries vs banks as creators of money. They are (obviously) both.
IMO, the key (underlying) Q is: can banks create an *excess supply* of "hot potato" money? 1/
So, there is a sense in which banks *can* create an excess supply of hot potato money.
That excess supply of bank money (eventually) creates its own demand (via increasing NGDP). 4/







